Analysis on the basic situation of domestic corn market

Introduction: By the beginning of January 2002, the decline of corn price in China had lasted for half a year, and the decline of corn price was about 15% In the process of price decline, there were different performances in different places Due to the withdrawal from the protection scope in North China, Huanghuai and other places, the corn price went with the market, and the demand was slow, resulting in a sharp decline in the price The Northeast continued to implement the protection The price decline is relatively weak due to the price purchase policy and the support of the corresponding national policies, thus forming the phenomenon of "upside down" of corn price in the production and marketing areas In recent years, due to the influence of favorable factors such as Spring Festival, the domestic corn market has recovered In the future, the domestic corn market is still affected by a variety of factors, and its price trend is more complex and unpredictable The following is an analysis of the basic factors of the domestic corn market: favorable factors: first, the output has been kept at a low level for two consecutive years, and the supply-demand relationship has been improved In 2000, China's corn output was only 106 million tons Although there was a recovery growth in 2001, the expected output was only around 112 million tons Compared with the previous years, it is still at a low level However, in recent years, with the rise of feed industry, breeding industry and processing industry, the demand has been increasing year by year, and the supply has been decreasing and the demand has been increasing, it is necessary to maintain the balance of supply and demand through the original inventory, with the supply exceeding the demand The relationship between the two is expected to be effectively improved 2 With the support of national policies, there is a foundation for price recovery The Northeast continued to implement the protection price purchase policy, which played a fundamental role in the corn sales price, while the implementation of the down price sales policy in the sales, to a certain extent, consolidated this basic position The effective implementation of the genetically modified rules will promote the market price, and the national policy will play an effective supporting role in the improvement of the corn market in the later period Third, with the approaching of Spring Festival, the demand growth has entered a peak period With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the breeding industry and feed industry have also entered the peak production season, which is expected to promote the recovery growth of corn consumption Fourth, with the further expansion of the scale of state reserves, the market supply is decreasing This year, the scale of grain reserves of the central and local governments will be further expanded, the amount of commodities in the later market will be reduced, and the supply pressure will be further reduced 5 Strengthen the mentality of reluctant to sell and reduce the pressure of market supply In the past half a year, corn price has declined a lot, especially since the purchase of new corn, the purchase price has also declined at the same time, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain has been affected, and their reluctance to sell grain is gradually increasing 6 Exports are still alive and prices are rising From the perspective of foreign trade policy, the export of corn will still be maintained, but the operation is more difficult After China's accession to the WTO, the elimination of export subsidies for corn will definitely affect export, but due to our geographical advantages, it is possible to maintain a certain number of exports 7 The price ratio of corn and wheat will be reduced, and the demand will be increased Due to the continuous rise of wheat price and the fall of corn price, the price comparison between wheat and corn has become reasonable, the substitution effect of wheat on corn in feed is weakened, and corn feed consumption is expected to pick up slightly Negative factors: first, the output has not decreased but increased, and the market psychological pressure is heavier Compared with last year, this year's corn output shows a recovery growth trend Although the growth rate is not large, the increase of 6 million tons has a greater psychological impact on people when the balance between supply and demand is surplus 2 The domestic corn stock is sufficient to meet the supply Although the corn output is lower than the normal level for two consecutive years, due to the continuous increase of corn production in previous years, sufficient inventory has been accumulated to meet the domestic supply Third, the pressure of dealing with aged grain on the recovery of corn price will continue to exist From the end of October, the state started to deal with aged grain in Dalian and Zhengzhou It is expected that the state will still adopt the method of directional auction next year to deal with some aged grain The auction of aged grain will reduce the demand of feed and industrial enterprises for normal grain The impact of lower price on the market is inevitable 4 After China's accession to the WTO, the trade pattern of corn export reduction and import increase has basically become a fixed pattern It is predicted that China's corn export may be less than 2 million tons in 2001 / 02, while the import volume will be more than 3 million tons Under the impact of imported corn, the contradiction between supply and demand of corn in China will be more prominent next year 5 At present, the bearish psychology of all parties in the market has occupied the mainstream, which is hard to change in the short term Due to the long-term decline of corn sales price and the flat opening of purchase price, the market confidence was greatly hit, which led to the corn demand side's purchase is not active, looking forward to further price decline Based on the comprehensive analysis of the above factors, after nearly half of the domestic corn price falls, when the Spring Festival is approaching, the demand enters the peak growth period, and there is not much room for the price to fall sharply again In the future, the domestic corn market is more likely to maintain the oscillatory finishing under the joint action of the price rising factor and the underpricing factor In 2002, the price trend of domestic corn market is generally weak Even if the price rebounds at this stage, it is impossible to have a big increase (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: