Analysis of Tianjin soybean market in May

Introduction: According to China soybean.com, since May, under the influence of China's genetically modified policy and domestic soybean supply going to be cut off, the soybean market in Tianjin has been in a whirlwind of rising soybean prices This month, the trend of rising all the way continues in April, forming the highest price of soybean this year (2150 yuan / ton for domestic soybeans and 2250 yuan / ton for imported soybeans) At present, Tianjin soybean market situation is: soybean supply is tight, the price is expensive, Northeast soybean has not arrived at all in the near future There was no import of soybeans from abroad in April At the beginning of the month, some oil plants are going to stop production for maintenance On May 26, there was a rumor that the imported soybean came to Hong Kong Driven by the high price of soybean oil and soybean meal at present, the prediction and decision-making of Tianjin oil plant this year was quite right The domestic and imported soybean that was hoarded in February March in due time began to be pressed actively, increasing the output and sales volume of soybean oil and soybean meal, and obtaining better economic benefits At present, the price of domestic soybeans is 2120-2150 yuan / ton, and that of imported soybeans is 2200-2250 yuan / ton In May, Tianjin soybean market rose sharply in the first 10 days, and the specific reasons for the trend of high consolidation oscillation in the last 10 days are as follows: First of all, on the eve of May Day, the Ministry of health participated in the supervision of product import, which was confirmed on May 8, thus breaking the importer's hope of importing soybean in May At the same time, the situation that domestic soybean is about to be cut off has finally triggered the scene that domestic soybean market price rose sharply in May, making the soybean market appear a hot situation that hasn't appeared in several years Soybean price Georgia has also reached a new high for several years Secondly, the supply of domestic soybeans is seriously insufficient In April, when there is no imported soybeans, the domestic soybeans crushing enterprises have turned to use domestic soybeans, snapping up the few imported soybeans stored in the port In addition, the bull market of soybean futures in China and the long-term closing and delivery factors have already appeared, which make the futures industry actively purchase domestic soybeans from the origin, form a large number of warehouse receipts (700000 tons of warehouse receipts, and hundreds of thousands of tons of soybeans have not yet formed warehouse receipts) for physical delivery (spot arbitrage), avoid risks or obtain great economic benefits, which causes the domestic soybeans from the origin to be exhausted In recent years, the situation of domestic and imported soybeans with both high prices has finally formed Third, the policy factors affecting the import of genetically modified products have been unclear Although the soybean oil import quota has been issued for a long time, the importers are unable to import soybean oil, which makes the soybean oil market in a positive situation Its price is rising rapidly At the same time of soybean oil price rising, it also greatly stimulates soybean market price to further rise Fourth, after May 10, foreign media rumoured that China further clarified the new regulations on the import of genetically modified organisms, that is, the Ministry of health of China has begun to explain the statement on the measures for the import of genetically modified foods on the Internet on May 8 The new rules will only apply to imported soybeans for human consumption, not to soybeans for crushing Then it was confirmed to be wrong by the prediction Department of the national grain and oil information center So far, neither of the two statements has been made clear by any relevant department, and the market has fallen into a state of speculation and anxiety However, it is still recognized that there will not be a ship of soybeans entering the port at the end of May, at least in the first ten days of June In this case, soybean prices can only hover high Fifthly, facing the situation of domestic soybean market, our country must take necessary measures In addition, the safety certificate, identification certificate and import license issued by quarantine department have been issued for some time, and the effective date will come Many consultants and experts predict that many foreign soybeans will arrive at China's ports in late May The panic in the market will intensify, and the price of soybeans in the market will not be able to rise any higher, which will be in the form of oscillating arrangement The sixth is May 21, the last trading day of Dalian futures soybean in May Soybean delivery is about to make the May warehouse receipt soybean go to the market Under the new situation, domestic soybean inventory and port inventory import soybean began to increase the speed of use and sales, turning potential risks into profits and eliminating adverse factors in the intangible It is also one of the factors for soybean prices to stay in place in the middle of the year Analysis and prediction of soybean market trend in the later stage: in recent years, China's soybean production has been in short supply and demand, and the gap is huge Half of the domestic soybean industry's demand for soybean depends on imported soybean National policies and soybean imports always influence the trend of soybean market At present, China has joined the ranks of WTO There is no quota limit for soybean import, let alone the use of state administrative orders to prevent soybean import and violate the provisions of WTO free trade China has also adopted the reasonable shield of green trade barrier as the European Union and other countries, formulated reasonable and smart genetically modified policies, and controlled the soybean market in China in a macro and moderate way Therefore, the soybean market in China should operate smoothly Specifically, the soybean market in China should be analyzed from the following perspectives: I at present, the available quantity of domestic soybean is close to zero, and the price is between 2020-2040 yuan / ton, which has not happened in recent years Imports of soybeans have also been exhausted, and some regions have begun to enter the supply ranks There is a message on the futures market that Heilongjiang intends to auction 1 million tons of national soybean reserves in 1997-99 to ease the current soybean tension Some corrections say that the grain system of Heilongjiang Province has a reserve of 550000 tons of 97-99 annual old beans Whether it's hype or fact, in the short term, it will more or less alleviate the panic of shortage in the domestic market 2 In May, Dalian futures delivered 760000 tons of domestic soybeans in a long way, and recently continued to digest the warehouse receipt inventory of Dalian Commodity Exchange, and continuously shipped out soybeans With hundreds of thousands of tons of soybeans not delivered in Dalian delivery warehouse, more than 1 million tons of soybeans will be put into the spot market in succession under the situation of continuous shortage of soybeans in China 3 The State Grain and oil information center estimates that the number of imported soybeans transported to China's ports between May and June is about 12 ships, about 600000 tons According to China's soybean import quarantine policy, the time for this batch of soybeans to enter the market should be concentrated in the first ten days of June It's a test for the soybean market in June 600000 tons of soybean has little pressure on China's current crushing capacity, soybean meal and soybean oil demand, but mainly because of its psychological pressure on the market and the shadow of the arrival of imported soybeans in the later period In this way, the domestic port surplus imported soybeans will also be listed in this period to impact the soybean market IV in addition to the strengthening of the quarantine inspection and approval management of genetically modified imported soybeans by the Ministry of agriculture and the AQSIQ, the Ministry of health will also participate in the quality inspection, quarantine and approval of genetically modified imported soybeans for up to six months, making the import of soybeans more difficult and increasing the import risk of genetically modified soybeans Therefore, before the implementation of the GM policy of the Ministry of health on July 1, there may be a situation similar to that before March 20 when soybean importers seize the time gap and import a large number of soybeans The only difference is that importers must first have the conditions for early GM policies to allow soybean imports Therefore, it is impossible for imported soybeans to rush in It can be said that China has been able to well control the pace of soybean import 5 The increase of soybean price in the international soybean market will keep the domestic soybean price at a certain level To sum up, at present, the domestic market is in short supply of soybeans Only in the first ten days of June can a small amount of imported soybeans arrive and enter the market There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in China Futures soybeans will not enter the market all at once, so as to prevent the strong forced position market of futures contracts in July In addition, this year's disaster and reduction of rapeseed production in China will once again reflect the linkage effect Therefore, soybean market prices will continue to fluctuate from May to June, accompanied by a small increase In the later period, the imported soybean will enter the market of our country one after another, and the rapeseed will be listed one after another, which will make the soybean market price drop However, under the strong control of national genetically modified policies and other factors, the domestic soybean market should develop steadily, and the price will not suddenly change greatly.