Analysis of the weather and trend in the main wheat producing areas in the near future

Introduction: synopsis of the weather conditions in the main wheat producing areas in the near future BKS Hebei: affected by the strong cold air and warm and humid air flow, from the 17th, there were showers or thunderstorms in the central and southern areas of Hebei Province, with uneven rainfall distribution and heavy rainfall intensity in some counties and cities By 1400 hours, there were 17 counties and cities in Hengshui, Eastern Xingtai and Eastern Handan with rainfall of more than 10 mm, including 3 counties and cities with rainfall of more than 25 mm, and Qinghe County with the largest rainfall of 37 mm In addition, 32 counties and cities have strong winds in the northeast, 28 counties and cities have sand blowing before the rainfall, among which, Dacheng county has sand dust storm; the temperature in most areas has dropped 8-12 ℃ at 14 o'clock From the night of 17th to the day of 18th, there was light to moderate rain in the east of Baoding, the south of Langfang, the south of Qinhuangdao, the south of Tangshan, Shijiazhuang, Cangzhou, Hengshui, Xingtai and Handan, and there was moderate to heavy rain to cloudy in some areas; there was sleet or light to moderate snow to cloudy in the north of Zhangjiakou and Chengde; there was light rain to cloudy in other areas BKS Shandong: Wheat ushers in the largest precipitation in this year After continuous high temperature weather, Shandong province finally ushered in a timely rain yesterday This is also the biggest rainfall process in Shandong this year Under the influence of strong cold air, from the 17th, most of Shandong Province began to fall from the west to the East in small to medium thunderstorms, with local heavy rain According to the provincial meteorological station statistics, as of 18:00 p.m on the 17th, the average rainfall in the province was 13.3mm The heavy rainfall is 59.1mm in Liaocheng, 37.3mm in Dezhou, 22.2mm in Jinan, and more than 10 mm in Taian, Jining, Heze and Binzhou The maximum point rainfall is Chiping 97 mm Experts said the rainfall will effectively alleviate the drought in Northwest Shandong According to the forecast, there are still small to medium thunderstorms in Shandong on the 18th, with heavy rain in central Shandong and parts of the peninsula At the same time, the temperature of the whole province will also drop obviously, and the cooling range is generally 8-10 ℃ It is expected that the lowest temperature in the province will be 6-8 ℃ on the morning of the 19th BKS economic recovery started the big wheat bull market BKS I the end of deflation, and the price of agricultural products entered the bull market cycle According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics on April 17, the GDP growth of China's economy in the first quarter of this year reached 9.9%, especially the positive growth of the price index for the first time in 20 months, which was 0.5% Based on the data of China's economic operation in the first quarter, it can be concluded that the deflation that has been plaguing China's economic operation for a long time has shown signs of ending While the negative growth situation of consumer price of BKS has been initially reversed, the price of means of production, as the leading price index, continues to rise, with a large increase in oil products, steel products, cotton, etc In the next few months, with the shortage of energy supply and the expansion of construction scale, the prices of energy and investment products will continue to rise Domestic economists are still discussing whether the rise of food prices further promoted inflation or accelerated the sharp rise of food prices between 1994 and 1996 But it is certain that the two are complementary The rise of animal prices in the economic recovery zone will also stimulate agricultural prices as the basis of prices to get rid of the six-year downturn and enter a new round of bull market cycle Under the background of BKS, the leading wheat of agricultural products in China is expected to follow the example of soybean and open the curtain of bull market BKS II The stock is decreasing The supply and demand of wheat is about to enter the era of shortage If the external cause of stimulating the start of wheat bull market is the improvement of macro economy, then the continuous decrease of wheat stock will be the internal cause of the start of wheat market From the recent trend of CBOT soybeans, we can easily find that there is only one fundamental reason for the continuous rise of CBOT soybeans in the off-season, that is, the carry over inventory has dropped to the lowest point in history Similarly, China's wheat market has experienced four years of insufficient production and demand, and its inventory level has dropped to a historical low And with the full implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forest, after 2004, China's wheat will enter the era of shortage from oversupply The shortage of supply can only be made up by imports, and the increase of imports will stimulate the global wheat price Due to the long-term downturn of the wheat spot market, and the low level of wheat stocks of grain consuming units and sales areas, once the wheat market starts, the market reaches a consensus on the expectation of wheat price rise, which will lead to the rush purchase of processors and sales areas In addition, driven by the behavior of wheat dealers' buying up but not buying down, the wheat price will rise rapidly It can be said that this year's domestic cotton market is a typical example BKS III high quality wheat took the lead in the start-up The wheat bull market has now increased with the continuous increase of domestic commodity prices After the Spring Festival, the wheat market, which was originally in the off-season of consumption, has seen a strong demand situation The sale rate of Chenliang in different places reached 100%, and the sale price remained high The price of high-quality wheat is driven by demand and influenced by the market The ex warehouse price of gao8901 in Hebei Province has increased from 1200 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival to more than 1300 yuan / ton at present, and the annual output of 8901 in 2001 has reached 1400 yuan / ton, while that of Gaoyou 503 and other high-quality varieties in Henan Province has also increased from 1180 yuan / ton before the festival to 1300 yuan / ton at present All kinds of signs show that this kind of off-season rise of wheat market is the early phenomenon of wheat bull market The first start of high-quality wheat will lead to the overall strength of wheat prices Although the current market focus of BKS is on the weather change in May and the grain policy of the production area, this is not the main factor affecting the wheat price The decisive influence on wheat price is the trend of domestic economy and the change of wheat supply and demand The weather and policy factors will only affect the wheat price trend in stages It can be said that even if the weather is favorable in the later period of wheat growth, the wheat market will still rise; once there is a disastrous weather, the wheat price, especially the wheat futures price, will rise sharply As for the impact of grain policy on wheat price, the author thinks that it has been greatly weakened at present As the relationship between supply and demand of wheat has changed qualitatively, the wheat market is gradually moving towards marketization BKS to sum up, the wheat market has entered the bear cattle conversion period after a bear market of up to six years With the economic recovery and the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure, wheat prices will continue to strengthen, and there is a large space for future market growth BKS   BKS