Analysis of the trend of wheat price in the near future and its long-term prospect

Introduction: throughout the trend of China's wheat market, the price of wheat is in ups and downs In 2000, although there was a national protection price, the market price in various regions was still low Later, due to the reason of national inventory check, the price of wheat in various regions rose rapidly, and many regions no longer went out of the warehouse, which caused the supply of wheat in short supply However, after April 2001, the clearance and inventory inspection mainly by the State Grain Reserve Management Corporation ended, the wheat market price slowly fell to the original price, until the introduction of the new protection price and the reduction of summer grain production in 2001, there was another round of wheat inflation, which was beyond imagination Take red wheat in Jiangsu Province as an example, it rose 300 / ton in two months However, the good times are not long Taking the national food conference held by the state as the lead, after the National Day in 2001, the wheat price market in the national market began to show a slight gentle decline Although before this year's Spring Festival, due to the stimulation of demand and transportation constraints, wheat prices rebounded slightly in the gentle decline, but the strength of the rebound is very limited It can be considered that the short-term behavior caused by transportation will not affect the overall trend of domestic wheat market decline This makes the industry not optimistic about the recent market trend In view of the following reasons: (because of the introduction of relevant analysis articles in "how long can wheat prices fall", we will make a brief analysis here) First, from now until the purchase of xialiang, it is the peak time for all regions to actively increase sales promotion and to sell wheat and reduce inventory For example, Henan Province plans to build 6.5 billion kg of reservoir Second, the domestic flour processing will enter the off-season, and the demand will further decline, which is an important factor affecting the wheat market In the past two years, the surplus of flour processing capacity and the decrease of processing profit have made flour mills more strict in the requirements of wheat price, which has a depressing effect on wheat price At the same time, the price of wheat continues to fall due to the competition of various units Third, the state is stepping up the rotation of grain reserves Guangdong, Guangxi, Beijing, Tianjin and other places have successively held auctions and competitive sales of imported wheat stocks Fourth, the quota will be released in early March, and it is expected that the import of wheat will increase significantly Fifthly, according to the survey on the intention of autumn and winter sowing conducted by the rural socio economic survey team of the National Bureau of statistics in 26 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, the area of grain crops sown in autumn and winter in 2001 was about 392 million mu, an increase of 1.3% over the previous year, of which the winter wheat was about 378 million mu, an increase of 0.4% over the previous year After two years of significant reduction, the sown area of wheat has rebounded this year If there is no major disaster, it is expected that the summer grain output this year may show a restorative increase, which can partially make up for the decrease in supply caused by two consecutive years of significant reduction in wheat production Based on the above reasons, we judge that the recent wheat price will mainly fluctuate and fall Although we judge that the wheat price will mainly fluctuate and fall in the short term, for the long-term trend analysis, the following factors may have a supporting effect on the price trend of wheat: first, the actual yield of wheat in this year On the basis of the reduction of wheat production in 2000, China's wheat production decreased again in 2001, becoming the lowest year since 1990 According to the information released by the National Bureau of statistics, the total output of summer grain in 2001 was 101.88 million tons, a decrease of 4.91 million tons or 4.6% over the previous year The continuous reduction of summer grain yield is mainly affected by the decrease of sowing area and drought For this year, because the planting area has been determined, the amount of wheat production in this year is mainly affected by the future climate According to climate experts from the China Meteorological Administration, there are various signs that "El Nino" may occur this spring, and the adverse weather conditions will have a negative impact on agricultural production Therefore, some analysts said that in 2001 / 2002, China's winter wheat production may be reduced by 1 percentage point due to the unusual high temperature and drought climate in the northern region this winter 2 With the economic development and improvement of living standards of our country, the demand for high-quality wheat in China has increased High quality wheat not only improves the overall quality level of domestic wheat, but also promotes the relative increase of wheat price According to the statistics of relevant departments, in 2000, the planting area of high-quality special wheat in China was about 70 million mu, accounting for 1 / 5 of the national wheat planting area In 2001, 93 million mu of high-quality special wheat had been planted, accounting for 28% of the national wheat planting area In 2001, the output of high-quality wheat in China is estimated to reach 16.47 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million tons compared with that in 2000 According to relevant survey data, in autumn 2001, the area of winter sown high-quality wheat in China reached 118 million mu, an increase of 26.3% year on year, so the output of this year's high-quality wheat will exceed 20 million tons In terms of the supply of high-quality wheat, the output of high-quality wheat has increased substantially in the past two years, and the supply and demand have basically balanced However, due to the limitation of objective conditions and the influence of various factors, the high-quality wheat planted by many regions and farmers is not high-quality, and the quantity of the real high-quality wheat is greatly reduced, but the price of the real high-quality wheat is still high, for example, the price of Hebei ordinary wheat is only 1100 yuan / ton, and the price of high-quality wheat 8901 is 1300 yuan / ton In the past two years, the area of high-quality wheat in China has increased significantly, the yield of high-quality wheat has increased significantly, and the contradiction between supply and demand of high-quality special wheat has been eased obviously, which makes the market price of high-quality wheat tend to be stable The extensive planting of high-quality wheat has improved the overall quality level of wheat in China to a certain extent, and also raised the overall price level of common wheat to a certain extent With the substantial increase of high-quality wheat in the future, the strength of high-quality wheat will continue to weaken, and the demand for wheat that fails to meet the real high-quality standard will be weak Third, the total stock of wheat fell further In recent two years, the reduction of wheat production in China is basically due to the reduction of the output of common wheat Although the stock is still huge, the total consumption also shows a growth momentum In 2000, China's wheat output was 99.6 million tons, and in 2001, China's wheat output was 93.9 million tons It is estimated that China's total annual consumption of wheat in these two years is about 115 million tons, of which the wheat production and demand gap in 2000 is about About 15 million tons The wheat output in 2001 is the lowest since 1990, so the gap between production and demand in 2001 is the largest, reaching more than 20 million tons The total gap between production and demand in the two years is about 35 million tons In the past decade, the average annual consumption of wheat is about 110 million tons, with an annual increase of 1-1.5 million tons From the experience of recent years, April and may are the lowest period of wheat stock every year Because of the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forest, grassland and the development of the west, the inflow of wheat from the main grain producing areas to the West increases In addition, from the perspective of the total amount, the shortage of production and demand is likely to continue to expand in the future, which plays a supporting role in the relative stability of wheat prices in the future The number of state-owned grain enterprises to be purchased has increased in line with the state's policy protection price Before the summer harvest in 2001, the State Planning Commission and the State Food Administration stipulated in the notice on issues related to the purchase price of summer grain in 2001 that the purchase protection price of summer grain in 2001 remained unchanged at the level of the previous year From the perspective of the actual stipulated prices of each province, it is basically the same as that of the previous year However, in terms of the actual purchase price, affected by the rising price, multi-agent purchase, farmers' reluctance to sell and the high enthusiasm of the purchase of storage enterprises, the purchase price of wheat kept rising, and the purchase price of common wheat was slightly higher than that of the previous year Therefore, although China's wheat production decreased in 2001, it was better than the previous year in terms of the national acquisition By the middle of August, the national wheat storage volume had reached 2002.08 million tons, an increase of 715300 tons over the same period last year The main reason for the increase in wheat purchase volume is that the grain sector generally actively implements the open purchase policy, and many major provinces actively do a good job in wheat purchase to create favorable conditions for farmers to sell grain, and the purchase price is also higher than last year In the case of a substantial reduction in wheat production, the increase in the purchase volume means that the grain sector has more grain sources, which is conducive to future market regulation, the implementation of the State Food Administration's relevant favorable sales policy, and also conducive to the upward market price The export volume of wheat is increasing year by year The export plays an important role in stimulating the market price of wheat and reducing the stock According to customs statistics, China's wheat export increased significantly in 2001, with the annual wheat export volume reaching 450000 tons, compared with only 2500 tons last year The main export areas are South Korea and the Philippines, and the main wheat exports are feed wheat Due to the large proportion of common wheat in China's stock and the large number of aging These aged grains can only be used as feed grains Because of their price advantages, they are more suitable for export to the above countries Wheat exports are still expected to increase significantly this year At the same time, with the development of international trade and the expansion of international market, some exporters in China are actively exploring the export of edible wheat According to the relevant persons of China Grain and oil import and Export Corporation, India is the main competitor of China's wheat export at present The increase of Grain Reserve has a pulling effect on wheat price Last year, the state issued opinions on further deepening the reform of the grain circulation system, proposing that the state will appropriately increase the scale of the central grain reserve In the next two years, the central reserve grain scale will gradually reach 75 billion kg through new grain storage and direct purchase in production areas, so as to ensure that the state has sufficient grain control resources At the same time, local reserves will also be enriched, and the main sales areas shall enrich the provincial grain reserves in accordance with the relevant requirements of the state that "sales areas shall maintain sales volume for six months" At the same time, the new warehouse and rotation warehouse will play a positive role in promoting the wheat price For example, the wheat purchased in Liaocheng and other areas in northern Shandong Province in 2001 was mostly received by the local new warehouse and rotation warehouse This year, some regions will further liberalize the purchase and sale market, increase the amount of Grain Reserve, which will play a role in reducing market supply and increasing actual market demand Although these factors may play a role in driving wheat prices, the impact of these factors on the market will be in a few months, at least after the summer harvest In the near future, the price trend of wheat will continue to fluctuate down as slowly as we judge.