Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (9.5-9.9)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, Japan announced the revised gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2016, which increased by 0.
2% month-on-month after excluding price changes, and converted to an annual growth rate of 0.
7%; There is a significant upward revision
from the initial values of 0 and 0.
2%.
Domestically, the official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.
4% in August, a 22-month high, and the services PMI maintained an upward trend for three consecutive months
.
During the same period, the Caixin manufacturing PMI also continued to maintain the boom and bust tipping point
of 50%.
All of this points to the recent stabilization of economic growth
.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, the 14-year state-owned full latex in Shanghai was about 10,400 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 10,400 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui area was about 10,200 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, and the 15-year private whole milk tax-free price was about 10,300 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton; Yunnan's 16-year private full latex quotation was about 10,500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of September 12, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell to 116,900 tons, down 16.
9% from the previous period, and the decline in inventory was wider
than the previous period.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures on Thursday was 307,500 tons, down 2,140 tons
.
The inventory of the tianjiao market is still at a historical high level, and the domestic new rubber has gradually entered the market recently, but the increase in the supply of tianjiao has been slow, and the market price of tianjiao has risen
slightly due to the impact of futures.

4.
In terms of demand, as of September 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 69.
23%, up 0.
37% from last week; The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 71.
46%, up 1.
44%
from last week.
The operating rate of the downstream tire market has risen, and the demand for upstream tianjiao has increased, and the slight decline in demand has brought certain benefits to rubber prices, and the spot price trend of tianjiao has risen
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, affected by the downstream consumption off-season, the pace of supply from tight balance to easing in the early stage is quite slow, which will support rubber prices
to a certain extent.
Recently, the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires has been stable at about 70%, and the off-season is not light, and heavy trucks increased by 45% in August, hitting a new high this year, indicating that the overall demand performance is still good
.
From the perspective of circulation, as of the end of August, the decline in rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was wider
than that in the previous period.
Volatility has increased in recent days due to increased market uncertainty
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.