Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (5.8-5.12)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL) last Friday (May 5) this week showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased sharply in April, increasing by 211,000, and the unemployment rate fell sharply to 4.
4% in April, refreshing a 10-year low
.
The strong US non-farm payrolls data for April led the market to see a growing possibility of a
Fed rate hike in June.
In the domestic market, the central bank continued to suspend open market operations at the beginning of the week, but the market capital continued to pick up, the supply of funds in the market increased, the difficulty of financing decreased, and the main repo rate fell
.
Market participants pointed out that under the background of financial deleveraging, the central bank's monetary policy is difficult to relax, in view of the subsequent still facing the disturbance of various factors such as corporate tax payment, foreign exchange purchase dividends, and regulatory assessment, the sustainability of capital warming is doubtful
.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, on the demand side, currently affected by the pressure of finished product inventory and poor demand, the operating rate of tire factories that have maintained a high level for the past few years has begun to decline
.
Therefore, the spot market has less transactions, which cannot form a strong support
for rubber prices.

Third, in terms of inventory, the inventory of Shanghai rubber futures increased sharply in the week ending May 12, and the registered warehouse receipt increased
significantly.
Weekly inventory was 339,940 tons, a significant increase of 2,034 tons from the week of May 5; The weekly registered warehouse receipt was 313,960 tons, a significant increase of 7,440 tons
from the week of May 5.
At present, rubber inventories are showing an increasing trend, putting pressure
on the price of rubber.

4.
In terms of the spot market, the quotation of Yunnan natural rubber market is narrow, the reference price of private full latex in 17 years is 13500 yuan / ton, and the quotation of private full latex in 16 years is 13000-13200 yuan / ton; The quotation of sub-standard 1 (5# glue) is 12600-12800 yuan / ton, the quotation of private standard 2 (10# glue) is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, and the quotation of TSR20# is about 12500 yuan / ton; The price quotation of natural rubber in Hengshui market is adjusted in a narrow range, and the mainstream reference price: the reference quotation of 15-year Jinfeng whole milk including tax is 12900-13100 yuan / ton; A small number of bid two quotation 13100-13200 yuan / ton
.

Future market forecast: This network analysis preliminary prediction, due to the current domestic and foreign rubber production areas ushered in the rubber tapping season, supply pressure has increased, and downstream tire companies operating rate continues to decline, raw material procurement is not expected to be strong, supply and demand weakening led to inventory continue to rise, not conducive to the Shanghai rubber futures price stabilization to rebound the market, it is expected that next week rubber prices will continue to weak downward
.