Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (4.5-4.8)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week of April 2 was 267,000, continuing to remain at a historical low, and the data has been below 300,000 for 57 consecutive weeks, indicating that despite the slowdown in the US economy, the labor market is performing solidly; Domestically, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.
2% in March, up 1.
2 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range
.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 10,750 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; In 14 years, Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 10,700 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 10,700 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; The 15-year quotation of private full latex in Yunnan was about 10,800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of April 8, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decrease from the middle of the month at the end of March, and the inventory fell to 257,000 tons, and the inventory of the free trade zone continued to decline, indicating that short-term domestic consumption has increased, and it will be seen whether the decline can be sustained
in the later stage.
The high level of overall inventory is still a factor
that suppresses the current price of tianjiao.

4.
In terms of demand, as of April 8, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 70.
12%, up 1.
43%; Semi-steel tire enterprise operating rate of 75.
67%, up 1.
18%, last week operating rate continued to rise, this is the short-term downstream consumption improvement performance, good rubber prices, from the seasonal factors of the past year, the later operating rate will maintain a continuous upward trend, the trend has been maintained until April
.
Watch for whether the late-stage operating rate can sustain this upward momentum
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
The supply reduction during the shutdown period and the continuous improvement of downstream construction have not changed for the time being, which will make short-term rubber prices still supported
.
And the country is currently in the early stage of cutting, the output supply is not obvious, coupled with the downstream operating rate is still good, the tight supply pattern can be maintained
.
In addition, the price of alternatives such as synthetic rubber and composite rubber has been rising, and the price spread is in a low position, which has also played a supporting role
in the price of tianjiao.
It is recommended that investors take a long idea to treat, but because of the problem of high inventory, it is still not recommended to blindly chase higher
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.