Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (3.6-3.10)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, the ECB kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.
0%, the overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.
25%, the overnight deposit rate unchanged at -0.
4%, and the monthly asset purchase program unchanged at €80 billion, in line with expectations
.
Domestically, the CPI rose 0.
8% year-on-year in February, down 1.
7 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest growth rate
in nearly two years.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of market, in the Shanghai market, the 15-year full latex quotation in Yunnan was about 16,400 yuan / ton, down about 1,000 yuan / ton; In the Shandong market, the 15-year full latex quotation in Yunnan was about 16400 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, the 15-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation was about 15,900 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton; In the Yunnan market, the quotation of private full latex in 16 years was about 17,300 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of stocks, as of the week ended March 10, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 6.
1% from mid-February to 166,200 tons
.
Specifically, 123,400 tons of natural rubber (an increase of 6.
2%), 38,000 tons of synthetic rubber (an increase of 6.
7%), and 44,000 tons of composite rubber (flat).

In futures inventories, inventories rose 0.
08 million tonnes to 320,000 tonnes last week, while warehouse receipts increased 07,100 tonnes to 274,000 tonnes
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of February 24, the downstream tire market has risen, the domestic tire industry all-steel tire operating rate is about 67.
8%, semi-steel tire operating rate is about 72%, this week all-steel tire resumed normal production, the operating rate has increased significantly year-on-year, but not as good as the previous level, pay attention to whether environmental protection issues have an actual impact
on tire starts.

Future market forecast: This website analyzes the preliminary forecast, and Shanghai rubber maintains the finishing trend
.
The weak demand side has become very prominent, and the pressure of rubber inventory in the trade link has brought greater selling pressure
to the market.
When the world is in the tapping gap, the overall supply situation is not pessimistic
.
It is understood that although March to May is the traditional low production period of the main producing countries, the overall output loss is not large
due to the stockpiling of more processed raw materials.
In addition, although the recent market has continued to fall, the industry is generally optimistic that the price of this year is higher than last year, so the expectation of rubber tapping enthusiasm after the cutting will increase due to price support, so the supply of the whole year remains stable
.
Since recently, domestic rubber stocks have continued to increase, and the overall supply of market supplies is sufficient
.
Recently, downstream plant production has resumed one after another, and the overall operating rate of tire companies has recovered to around 70
%.
Some enterprises have long-term contracts, or temporarily digest inventory and purchase small amounts from the market on demand; Some enterprises have experienced a large decline in raw materials after the year, and the procurement progress has slowed down
significantly.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber as a whole does not have too strong downward momentum, and it is still treated with more ideas
.