Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (3.20-3.24)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, macro, this week, after the Fed raised interest rates, the global stock market and futures market were green, only gold and silver showed the function of hedging, and in the domestic market, rubber once again led the decline in energy commodities
.
At the same time, in the downward trend, Shanghai rubber completed the main monthly
change.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in the market, in the Shanghai market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 15,500 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; In the Shandong market, the 15-year quotation of full latex in Yunnan was about 15,500 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, the 15-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation was about 15,000 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; In the Yunnan market, the quotation of Yunxiang full latex in 16 years was about 16400 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of March 24, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 12.
5% to 187,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons
from the previous month.
At present, rubber stocks in the previous period and Qingdao Free Trade Zone are increasing, putting pressure
on the price of rubber.
While rubber prices fall, inventories rise, in a passive state of inventory increase
.

Fourth, in terms of demand, as of March 24, at present, the downstream tire market has risen, the domestic tire industry all-steel tire operating rate is about 79.
8%, semi-steel tire operating rate is about 72%, all-steel tire resumed normal production, but due to the early replenishment, resulting in the current tire manufacturers are in a state of consumption inventory, so the market transaction is less, the price support is weak
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
This week, Shanghai rubber completed the main monthly
change in the big fall.
The reason for the collapse of rubber is due to the macro level, the reduction of funds; Second, due to Thailand's fourth dumping of reserves, plus the previous period of Shanghai rubber has been in a state of decline, market confidence is insufficient
.
At present, the domestic demand side has not yet made efforts, and the supply side is expected to return to the state of increasing production, and it is expected that the state of medium-term adjustment of Shanghai rubber futures prices will remain unchanged
in the future.
Spot prices are low and stable, terminal procurement wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the overall transaction is average
.
Raw material prices have been falling recently, tire prices have been weak, and agents' enthusiasm for taking goods has declined
.
The start of the tire factory has not changed much recently, but the shipment speed has slowed down significantly, and manufacturers mostly reflect that inventory has increased
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber needs to continue to wait and see
in the short term.