Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (2.6-2.10)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, this week, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 246,000, down 14,000
from the previous week's revised figure.
The data suggests that the U.
S.
job market continues to improve
.
Domestically, in January 2017, the total value of China's imports and exports increased by 19.
6% year-on-year, and both exports and imports showed double-digit positive growth; The trade surplus was 354.
53 billion yuan, narrowing by 2.
7%.

The analysis pointed out that it is expected that China's export pressure will be eased
at the beginning of the second quarter.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, in the Shanghai market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation is about 19,500 yuan / ton, up 700 yuan / ton; In the Shandong market, the 15-year full latex quotation in Yunnan was about 19,600 yuan / ton, up 700 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, the 15-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation was about 18,900 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; In the Yunnan market, the quotation of Yunxiang full latex in 16 years was about 19,500 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, the warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 420 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 264790 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 230 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong decreased by 190 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan Ping
.

4.
In terms of demand, as of February 10, the current all-steel and semi-steel operating rates of domestic tire factories are higher than the same period last year, and in January 2017, the domestic heavy-duty truck market sold a total of 82,000 vehicles of various types, an increase of 122% over the 36,800 units in the same period last year, but a month-on-month increase of 9% shows that the overall demand for rubber downstream remains good
.
Tianjiao spot is affected by all aspects of favorability, and the spot market price continues to rise
.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, after the breakthrough, Shanghai rubber has maintained a strong position, with an increase in holdings and a strong
overall momentum.
Under the influence of the Spring Festival, tire manufacturers stopped production mostly from late January to early
February.
Most manufacturers' inventories have entered a new low level, and with the return of production entities after the holiday, tire manufacturers will gradually strengthen in February under the stimulation of the demand for replenishment of inventory
.
Thailand's 310,000 tons of rubber have been absorbed into the market, and the next round of dumping is scheduled for February 14, with 100,000 tons
of reserves.
We believe that the bearish marginal effect of subsequent dumping will diminish, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities
after the correction stabilizes.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber needs to continue to wait and see
in the short term.