Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (1.16-1.20)

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

First, on the macro front, the latest report shows that the total number of unemployed in the world is expected to increase by 3.
4 million this year, exceeding 201 million
.
In addition, 2.
7 million new unemployed people will be added in 2018
.
Job-market conditions are deteriorating in emerging market and developing economies, where unemployment is expected to be about 1 percent higher this year than last year
, according to the ILO.
Domestically, China's foreign exchange account balance at the end of December 2016 was 21.
9 trillion yuan, down 317.
8 billion yuan from the previous month, falling for 14 consecutive months, and falling by more than 300 billion yuan
for two consecutive months.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fluctuated and declined
.

Second, in terms of market, in the Shanghai market, Yunnan 15-year full latex quotation is about 19700 yuan / ton; In the Shandong market, Yunnan's 15-year full latex quotation was about 19,700 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, the 15-year state-owned whole milk tax-free quotation was about 18,900 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton; In the Yunnan market, the 15-year quotation of Yunxiang full latex was about 19,900 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of January 20, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone exceeded 120,000 tons, an increase of nearly 16%.

Specifically, the inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber has increased, but the increase in natural rubber inventory is large; The inventory of specific varieties such as tobacco flake gum and styrene-butadiene gum has also increased
to varying degrees.

4.
In terms of demand, as of January 20, the downstream tire market has not changed much, and the operating rate of all-steel tires in the domestic tire industry is about 68.
51%, down 0.
18%; The operating rate of semi-steel tires was about 72.
05%, down 0.
1%.

The operating rate of the downstream tire market remained stable, and the downstream tire manufacturers just needed to dominate in the near future, and the spot market price fell
due to the negative impact of all aspects.

Future market forecast: The preliminary forecast of this website analysis shows that Shanghai rubber maintained a finishing trend, and there was a significant decline
in night trading.
After the continuous rise in the early stage, the impulse energy of Shanghai rubber continued to weaken.

From a fundamental point of view, domestic spot quotations continued to decline slightly, and the futures spot spread narrowed
.
Port dollar rubber also continued to pull back
slightly driven by futures prices.
The rainy weather in the Thai production area has not yet ended, and the price of raw materials has maintained an upward trend, and yesterday's rise slowed down slightly, but the price is still stronger than the domestic
one.
For domestic spot goods in the suspension period, there is strong support, and domestic quotations are more likely to approach foreign prices
.
Raw material prices fluctuated, the operating rate of the tire industry maintained a high level of about 70%, and downstream consumption was in a flat period, but the fundamentals were still more
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, it is expected that the high volatility of Shanghai rubber years ago will be the mainstay
.