Analysis of the recent domestic soybean market trends

Introduction: since the price of imported soybeans rose to the highest point of 2200 yuan / ton in the middle of July Influenced by the fall of Chicago futures price, the price of imported soybean gradually fell to 2100-2130 yuan / ton in late July As of August 10, the quotation of domestic ports continued to maintain at this level At present, the price of domestic soybean traders changes with the change of Chicago soybean futures price This ten day Chicago soybean futures price volatility is small is the main reason for domestic soybean prices to maintain stable It is expected that soybean prices will be mainly affected by two factors in the later period, one is the supply quantity in a few months after soybean import, and the other is the trend of Chicago futures price It is understood that in recent months, the arrival volume of imported soybeans is relatively large It is estimated that the import volume in July will be 1.4-1.6 million tons, 1.3-1.5 million tons in August and 1-1.2 million tons in September Plus 200000 tons of soybeans stored in domestic ports at the end of June due to the time lag in customs statistics According to the current domestic monthly average of 1.3-1.4 million tons of soybeans, it is estimated that 400000 tons of soybeans will be overstocked in the hands of domestic traders and processing plants by the beginning of September It can completely alleviate the shortage of domestic soybean supply and demand in September due to the government's release of the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, which reduced the purchase volume of domestic importers in August Therefore, soybean price is less affected by the tight supply in the later period In the later stage, the price of domestic soybean imports will mainly depend on the price of Chicago futures market If the Chicago futures price maintains a pattern of fluctuating arrangement at 480-530 US cents / bushel, the price offered by foreign exporters to domestic soybean will be between us $205-225 / ton CIF, then the price acceptable to domestic importers will be compared with the soybean whose domestic import cost is 1870-1950 yuan / ton in the earlier stage It should be around 2080-2150 yuan / ton On the other hand, in the latest weekly planting report released by USDA, the planting area of soybean with good growth was reduced from 60% last month to 57% on August 5, which was lower than the average level of five years, and the flowering rate and pod rate were also lower than that of last year And the weather in the later period announced by WSC will be mainly dry and hot If there is no rainfall in the most important period of Soybean Growth -- podding and grouting period, then the soybean production in the United States this year may be lower than last year's level In recent years, the global soybean demand has increased by 3.4% and the supply has increased by 2.9% Basically, the supply is in short supply The reduction of American production is bound to cause the U.S market to rise to $550 The spot price of domestic imported soybeans will rise to more than 2250 yuan / ton if the price is above a bushel (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: