Analysis of the factors influencing the trend of domestic wheat market

Introduction: Recent In the near future, the price trend of domestic wheat market still keeps stable operation At the beginning of the new year, influenced by the basic factors such as the decline of output and the decrease of inventory, the domestic wheat price goes out of the short and flat rising range, and the favorable effect of the later Fundamentals will gradually fade in the market, and the new market influencing factors will be gestated The trend energy of stable operation of domestic wheat price No continuation? It has become the focus of discussion in the industry In this regard, relevant experts have analyzed the main factors affecting the trend of domestic wheat market The specific situation is as follows: the planting of DGM high-quality wheat has increased, and the market has added a new focus DGM Due to the adjustment of planting structure, comparison of planting economic benefits and other reasons, the sown area of wheat continues to decrease According to the national grain and oil information center, the sown area of wheat in China this year is 22.3 million hectares, down 5.11% over the previous year; the total output is expected to be 87.16 million tons, down 4.52% over the previous year However, with the increase of agricultural planting structure adjustment in recent years, the planting area of high-quality wheat is increasing year by year According to the statistics of the national grain and oil information center, the sown area of high-quality wheat was 1.7 million hectares in 1999, 3.19 million hectares in 2000, 3.91 million hectares in 2001, 5.35 million hectares in 2002, 37% higher than 3.92 million hectares in 2001; the total output of high-quality wheat reached 21.5 million tons, 40% higher than 15.32 million tons in 2001 。 High quality wheat attracts the attention of the market for its high quality, and its superior price adds a new focus to the domestic wheat market, which plays a leading role in raising the overall wheat price level The contradiction between supply and demand of DGM has been improved, and the upward market price is guaranteed Due to the lack of dry and little rain in the main winter wheat production areas of China in autumn and winter of 2002, coupled with the high cost of artificial irrigation, due to the price value to income ratio, farmers' insufficient investment in drought resistance, and poor moisture content, the phenomenon of lack of seedling and ridge cutting and insufficient tillering is common in wheat, and the seedling situation is relatively weak It is predicted that the winter wheat output will be further reduced in 2003, and the pattern of oversupply of wheat market will be improved The improvement of the supply and demand pattern will help to strengthen the upward basis of the market and guarantee the upward price of the market DGM the price of American wheat is rising, and the price of international wheat export is rising At present, the war in Iraq is still continuing, and the impact of the war on international wheat price is still difficult to estimate However, in recent years, the price of American wheat spot export has increased significantly, which to a certain extent led to a slight rebound in Canadian and Australian wheat prices Recently, the spot supply of international wheat is unstable, and the supply capacity of Ukraine and other countries is declining, which also leads to the rise of wheat prices Due to the rapid decline of US wheat spot price in the early stage, the recent rise of US wheat futures prices led to a strong rebound in spot prices As of early April, the US Gulf soft red winter wheat FOB price was $124 / ton, up $7 from the end of last month, and the US Northwest Coast soft white wheat FOB price was $118 / ton, up $3 from last week The rise of wheat prices in the United States is conducive to the rise of international wheat export prices and has a positive effect on the market After the Spring Festival of DGM, the domestic flour market will enter into the seasonal consumption off-season, and the market demand will not be strong However, this kind of off-season is only limited to the weak purchase of common wheat by flour enterprises, and another strong market pattern is quietly forming In recent years, with the improvement of per capita living standard in China, people's demand for high-quality flour is becoming more and more popular Although the purchase price of common wheat is relatively low, which helps enterprises to reduce production costs, the low market demand can not make it show its advantages On the contrary, although the purchase price cost of high-quality wheat is high, its good sales prospects, and the market performance of high-quality and high price have to make it Flour processing enterprises treat high-quality wheat differently, and the market demand for high-quality wheat is gradually increasing In the later stage, with the arrival of seasonal consumption peak, flour enterprises will increase the purchasing power and market promotion power The import and export situation of DGM is expected to be optimistic, and the market wait-and-see mentality is expected to reduce Last year, DGM was the first year of China's accession to the WTO After China's accession to the WTO, China promised to import 8.468 million tons of wheat, but last year, China's wheat import was less than 1 million tons In the case of no significant increase in the number of imports, the number of wheat exports in China increased significantly At the beginning of 2003, China's wheat export situation continued to be optimistic It is expected that the export volume of novel wheat in 2003 will continue to be strong However, due to the current unstable quality of high-quality wheat in China, the international wheat price is expected to decline, and the export volume is difficult to increase significantly With the adjustment of planting structure, the supply of high-quality wheat in China will increase, and the price of high-quality wheat in the world will be at a high level The domestic wheat companies may give priority to the domestic high-quality wheat, which will restrain the increase of imported wheat Affected by the steady increase of export quantity and the difficulty of increasing import quantity, the original waiting wheat enterprises are expected to change their original intention and play a positive role in stimulating the increase of market demand and reducing market pressure The sale of DGM aged grain continued, and the market pressure increased After the Spring Festival, DGM wheat began to enter the slack season of consumption, and the national wheat price was stable The average price of third-class white wheat is 1240 yuan / ton Among them, the price of Yumai 34 in Yanjin, Henan Province is 1230 yuan / ton, the price of quality 8901 is 1340 yuan / ton, and the price of Youmai 8901 in Huachang, Shanghai is 1290 yuan / ton Although slightly up, but not much At the same time of the stable spot price of wheat, the rotation of central grain reserve was launched in 2003 Recently, the wheat reserve is going out of the warehouse With the winter wheat harvest period getting closer and closer, the main production areas to better ensure the interests of farmers, complete the task of wheat acquisition, and speed up the pace of wheat sales and storage At the same time, in order to ensure the quality of inventory, the sales area has increased the intensity of rotation At the beginning of April, 100000 tons of wheat and 350000 tons of wheat were sold in Beijing and Shaanxi And from the 80000 ton wheat auction held in Tianjin in March, it was learned that the price of more than 50000 tons of imported aged wheat was only 1017 yuan / ton, which was lower than the price of domestic aged wheat at that time The auction of stale grain will put pressure on the wheat spot market in the later stage The wheat price of DGM CBOT keeps falling, which is a resistance to the domestic wheat price From the historical data, it can be seen that since the wheat futures rose in May 2002, it began to fall after reaching a high of 439 cents on September 9 last year Up to now, it has dropped to 289 cents, almost 100% of the increase The pullback marks the beginning of a decline in global wheat prices after a wave of big rises The CNF price of wheat exported by the United States to China has been declining At present, the price of soft winter wheat, hard spring wheat and hard winter wheat has decreased from 172 dollars / ton, 204 dollars / ton and 184 dollars / ton at the end of last month to 154 dollars / ton, 200 dollars / ton and 172 dollars / ton at present Recently, the price of wheat sold by the United States to South Korea is 3% - 9% lower than that in early March At present, most of China's imported wheat is high-quality wheat, and the continuous decline of import quotation has a great pressure on the price of domestic high-quality wheat According to DGM, the development of domestic wheat market is in the contradiction between the positive and the negative There are many factors that affect the trend of wheat price Through in-depth analysis, aging grain auction, CBOT After all, the inhibition effect of factors such as wheat price drop on the market is limited, and it is difficult to dominate the main tone of market development in the short term, while the factors that promote the wheat market are still monopolized, and the market trend of stable operation will be consolidated DGM Henan has signed a large export order of more than 500000 tons -- Analysis of the successful export situation of Henan Wheat It has become an indisputable fact that Henan wheat goes to the world Experts believe that this is the result of Henan Province insisting on the adjustment of agricultural structure and accelerating the establishment of high-quality wheat production and processing bases in recent years DGM adjusts the planting structure and optimizes wheat planting Several years ago, it was proposed in Henan Province to optimize the rural industrial structure and agricultural regional layout with the focus on the construction of high-quality wheat production and processing base The basic ideas are: to adapt to the market demand for high quality, specialization and diversification, adjust and optimize the variety structure; to focus on improving quality, promote the transformation of wheat economy from total expansion to quality and efficiency; to focus on the transformation of circulation trade and processing, and take the way of sales belt production DGM since 1998, Henan has carried out large-scale adjustment of wheat structure in the direction of "specialization, high quality and diversification" According to the needs of the market, we try to plant different types of high-quality special wheat in different ecological areas by changing varieties, planting on a large scale, linking production and marketing In 2001, Henan made it clear that the construction of "two bases" was the key point of the strategic adjustment of the agricultural and rural economic structure of the whole province, and summarized and popularized the advanced experience of Xinxiang City in developing high-quality wheat production bases, which played an important exemplary and leading role in the adjustment of the agricultural structure of the whole province In order to make the "wheat economy" bigger and stronger, according to the requirements of Henan Province, according to the plan of wheat quality division of the whole province, the county (city) is the unit of unified planning, organization and implementation, and the same variety is planted in a centralized and continuous scale to ensure the production quality of high-quality wheat At the same time, we should strengthen the construction of technology innovation and promotion system, and improve the scientific and technological content of high-quality wheat production and processing Henan has also formulated the internal quality, processing performance and quality safety standards of high-quality wheat, and constantly improved the market access level of high-quality wheat After years of efforts, high-quality special purpose wheat in Henan Province has been industrialized in market breeding, large-scale continuous planting, production and marketing linked order acquisition The quality of Zhengzhou 9023, Gaoyou 503, Yumai 34, Hebei 8901 and other high-quality wheat varieties has approached or reached the international advanced level In the past, many flour factories and food factories that used to use imported wheat changed to domestic wheat A number of flour processing enterprises also set up order bases in wheat production areas According to statistics, at present, the market price of high-quality wheat per kilogram is 0.10 yuan higher than that of common wheat According to the calculation of 500kg per mu yield, under the same input, the farmers who planted one mu of high-quality wheat actually increased their income by 50 yuan High quality wheat planted in Xinxiang City, Henan Province, the national high quality wheat production base, has become the darling of the market, "how much is planted and how much is sold" In the past three years, the area of high-quality wheat in Xinxiang has increased from 800000 Mu to 3.3 million mu, even though the supply is still in short supply DGM on November 22, 2002, 5000 tons of Henan wheat was loaded on the Lianyungang wharf and sailed to Indonesia, marking a breakthrough in the export of edible wheat in China DGM domestic experts pointed out that before, the main reason why domestic edible wheat could not be exported was that the quality was not up to standard Now, the high-quality special wheat in Henan has developed to 21.7 million mu, accounting for 1 / 3 of the total wheat planting area in the province The production bases of high quality and strong gluten wheat in North Henan, middle gluten wheat in Middle Henan and weak gluten wheat in South Henan have been established The advantages of these bases are that they are easy to form continuous planting, suitable for overall mechanization and large-scale operation, and then produce quality