Analysis of the factors affecting the future domestic corn market

Introduction: Recently, under the calm state of the news, affected by the inertia of the price drop, the domestic corn market situation is still not improving, the market transaction is light, and the price continues to fall slightly The average price of Jilin car plate in the main production area is 980 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 960 yuan / ton, that of Longjiang is 950 yuan / ton, that of Hebei is 1000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is 1000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai is 1020 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang is 1020-1040 yuan / ton, that of Hunan is 1100 yuan / ton, and that of Sichuan is 1120 yuan / ton, that of Gangkou corn is 1020 yuan / ton in Dalian, and that of Qinhuangdao is 1000 yuan / ton, The price of Huangpu port is 1120 yuan / ton in Guangzhou and 1100 yuan / ton in Fuzhou So far, the price of corn in China has been declining for half a year, and the falling range of corn price is about 15% In the future, the domestic corn market will be affected by many factors, and its price trend will be more complex and unpredictable The following is a brief analysis of the overall factors affecting the domestic corn market: favorable factors: first, the output will remain low for two consecutive years, and there is a gap between production and demand In 2000, China's corn output was only 106 million tons This year, although there is a recovery growth, the output is expected to be around 112 million tons Compared with the previous years, it is still at a low level In the same year, the output is insufficient to meet the demand, so it is necessary to maintain the balance of supply and demand through the excavation of reservoirs 2 The main corn producing areas will continue to implement the purchase policy of protection price and the sales policy of down price, which will play a policy supporting role in corn price 3 New Year's day and Spring Festival are approaching, and the breeding industry and feed industry are entering the peak production season, which is expected to promote the recovery growth of corn consumption Fourth, the reserve scale of the central and local governments will be further expanded, the market commodity volume will be reduced, and the supply pressure will be further reduced 5 In the past half a year, corn prices have declined significantly, especially since the acquisition of new corn For the current lower acquisition price, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has been affected, and their reluctance to sell grain is gradually increasing Vi from the perspective of national foreign trade policy, corn export will still be maintained, but the operation is more difficult After entering the customs, the corn export subsidy will be cancelled, and the corn export will certainly be affected However, due to our unique advantages in geographical location, we can still fight for the corn export of some Southeast Asian countries after entering the customs 7 Due to the continuous rise of wheat price, the price ratio between wheat and corn has become reasonable, the substitution effect of wheat on corn in feed has weakened, and the consumption of corn feed is expected to pick up slightly Negative factors: first, compared with last year, this year's corn shows a restorative growth trend Although the growth rate is not large, the increase of 6 million tons has a greater psychological impact on people when there is a surplus of supply and demand balance 2 The domestic corn stock is sufficient to meet the supply Although the corn output is lower than the normal level for two consecutive years, due to the continuous increase of corn output in previous years, sufficient inventory has been accumulated to meet the domestic supply Third, the pressure of dealing with aged grain on the recovery of corn price will continue to exist From the end of October, the state started to deal with the aged grain in Dalian and Zhengzhou It is expected that the state will still adopt the method of directional auction next year to deal with some aged grain The auction of aged grain will reduce the demand of feed and industrial enterprises The impact of lower prices on the market is inevitable IV after China's accession to the WTO, the trade pattern of reducing the export of corn and increasing the import has basically become a fixed pattern It is estimated that China's corn export may be less than 2 million tons in 2001 / 02, and the import volume will be more than 3 million tons According to the information provided by the American feed grain Association, at present China has purchased 885000 tons of American corn, which will be the first large-scale import of corn in China since 1996 Under the impact of imported corn, the contradiction between domestic corn supply and demand will become more prominent next year, and the pressure of corn price rise will appear again 5 At present, the bearish psychology of all parties in the market has occupied the mainstream, which is hard to change in the short term Due to the long-term decline of corn sales price and the flat opening of purchase price, the market confidence was greatly hit, which led to the corn demand side's purchase is not active, looking forward to further price decline 6 The low price in the international grain market is bound to affect the domestic market After entering the customs, the international and domestic market will be more closely linked, the price linkage effect will be further enhanced, and the price trend of domestic corn market will be more constrained by the international market Comprehensive analysis of the above factors shows that after a long period of downward adjustment, there is not much room for the price of domestic corn to fall sharply again In the future, the domestic corn market is likely to maintain the oscillatory adjustment under the combined effect of price increasing factors and underpricing factors, and it is difficult to change the current weak market pattern It is certain that the price trend of the domestic corn market will be general next year Body is weak, even if the price rebounds, there is no big rise.