Analysis of the current situation of China's oil market

Introduction: from the perspective of the whole oil market situation, the market change of domestic oil market has been synchronized with the international market; after China's accession to the WTO, the trade pattern will change; the situation of domestic oil surplus will be more prominent; the survival of small and medium-sized oil processing enterprises will be more difficult; the traditional management mode will be seriously challenged In recent years, the excessive import of soybean and rapeseed and the rise of joint venture oil processing enterprises have brought China's oil market into line with the international oil market in advance At present, from the perspective of the whole oil market situation, the market change of domestic oil market has been synchronized with the international market It is understood that China's accession to the WTO has two main commitments in the oil industry: one is to gradually relax the quota restrictions on specific commodities; the other is to make appropriate adjustments in foreign trade policies, and to withdraw non-tariff measures contrary to WTO rules The main quota allocation indicators are as follows: soybean oil: in 2002, the tariff quota was 2518000 tons; in 2003, the tariff quota was 2818000 tons; in 2004, the tariff quota was 3118000 tons; in 2005, the tariff quota was 3587000 tons; in the whole year, 34% of the quota was allocated by Chinese companies and 66% by private enterprises Rapeseed oil: in 2002, the tariff quota was 879000 tons, in 2003, it was 1019000 tons, in 2004, it was 1127000 tons, in 2005, it was 1243000 tons; in the whole year, 34% of the quota was allocated by Chinese companies and 66% by private enterprises Palm oil: in 2002, the tariff quota was 2.4 million tons, in 2003, 2.6 million tons, in 2004, 2.7 million tons, and in 2005, 3.168 million tons; in the whole year, 34% of the quota was allocated by Chinese companies and 66% by private enterprises After 2006, the import tariff quota limit of the three major oil varieties was cancelled and 9% tariff was levied uniformly In terms of oil and oil import and export trade policies, the Chinese government agreed not to impose quota restrictions on soybean imports, maintaining the current tariff level of 3% The quota restrictions on cottonseed, sunflower seed, peanut kernel and corn oil will be lifted and replaced by 10% tariff A tariff of 9% is imposed on soybean oil within the tariff quota, which is 4% lower than the current actual tariff level After China's accession to the WTO, some adjustments in the policies concerning the import of oils and fats will inevitably affect the domestic oil processing and trading enterprises, especially the small and medium-sized state-owned oil processing and trading enterprises, which are summarized as follows: first, the trade pattern will change The outstanding performance is that the increase of quota will increase the import volume of domestic port grease Taking soybean oil as an example, according to the statistics of the customs, due to the impact of the national quota, the actual import volume of crude soybean oil in 2000 was 560000 tons, and the import volume in 2001 was 50000 tons (estimated) According to the terms of "WTO entry", in 2002, China's quota of soybean oil was 2.518 million tons, more than 50 times of the actual import volume in 2001 A large number of oil imports will inevitably bring the increase of port oil trade opportunities, increase the dependence of inland oil market on port oil market, and new changes will take place in the flow direction of oil market The original market pattern and customer groups will appear new adjustments, which will challenge the existing oil trade pattern In addition, the change of trade pattern will also be reflected in other aspects, such as: the decrease of oil imports caused by the increase of oil imports, the change of meal market; the change of domestic oil and oil prices, the adjustment of domestic agricultural planting structure, and the further impact on the supply and demand structure of domestic products 2、 The situation of domestic oil excess will be more prominent The supply of edible vegetable oil in China is relatively insufficient According to relevant data, it is estimated that the gap between supply and demand of vegetable oil in China is about 4 million tons per year In recent years, with the increase of the national agricultural structural adjustment, the gap has gradually narrowed In terms of variety distribution, the gap of 4 million tons is basically that palm oil accounts for about 1.5 million tons, while crude soybean oil and rapeseed oil account for about 2.5 million tons However, from the above figures, it is not difficult to see that in 2002, the annual quota access volume of three kinds of vegetable oil in China was 5.8 million tons, accounting for 48% of the total domestic demand for vegetable oil, which is far higher than the actual domestic gap In addition, the expansion of domestic oil processing enterprises in the past two years has led to the rapid growth of oil imports, which has significantly increased the number of indirectly imported oil In 2000, for example, China imported 10.4 million tons of soybeans and 2.97 million tons of rapeseed, equivalent to 2.96 million tons of vegetable oil 3、 There are more variables affecting the domestic oil market and more trade risks As a result, the domestic oil market will be further integrated with the international oil market The impact of changes in the international market on the domestic market will be more profound, comprehensive and direct Any sudden events, disastrous weather, political factors and trade frictions in the global scope will have a strong impact on the domestic oil market The uncertain factors that affect the price fluctuation of oil market will increase, the speed of market fluctuation will accelerate, and the risk of market trade will increase 4、 The survival of small and medium-sized oil processing enterprises will be more difficult At present, China's oil processing enterprises are undergoing a great change of industrial structure adjustment and market segmentation The entry of joint ventures and the rise of private enterprises make the domestic oil processing capacity seriously surplus According to relevant data, at present, there are 36 oil processing enterprises of more than 1000 tons which have been built and put into production in China, and there are still some large oil processing enterprises under construction and newly built in Guangdong and other coastal areas Some joint ventures not only have strong capital strength and advanced management means, but also have strong trading companies to rely on, which is quite powerful Some people have done market research, it is expected that in the last year or two, domestic small and medium-sized oil processing enterprises will close down by 50% Because the increase of quota brought by "entering WTO" makes the situation of domestic oil surplus more prominent, and the problem of oil processing capacity surplus will be more serious The result of market competition will inevitably make the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises more difficult 5、 The opportunity of soybean intermediate trade will be reduced, and the collision between traders will be more direct and severe After China's accession to the WTO, the increase of oil quota and the improvement of operation conditions of foreign-funded enterprises make the survival of domestic small and medium-sized oil processing enterprises more difficult The customer group of soybean intermediate traders will be reduced, making the operation of soybean importers serving for small and medium-sized enterprises more difficult In addition, after China's accession to the WTO, the state's policies on the examination and approval of import and export rights will be gradually relaxed Some enterprises with better operation will obtain the right of import and export on their own, and the number of enterprises with import and export rights will increase At the same time, the increase of oil quota will inevitably lead to the decrease of oil imports, which is very unfavorable for the enterprises engaged in soybean intermediate trade 6、 The traditional management will be challenged seriously China's vegetable oil market is huge, and the consumption of 1.3 billion people is amazing Foreign companies have been optimistic about China's market potential for a long time In the past two years, they can't wait to build factories and sites along the river, along the coast and in important transportation hub areas of China, laying a foundation for China's oil market after China's accession to the WTO According to the terms of accession to the WTO, China will gradually approve foreign oil market China's enterprises participate in the distribution of imported goods and realize that all trading entities have the right to import most of the goods to all parts of China These Provisions facilitate the multinational companies to directly participate in the oil market trade in China In the future operation, our competitors will mainly be multinational companies with strong financial strength In the process of competing with them, the disadvantages of backward equipment, backward technology, low added value of products, ineffective system, rigid management means and single marketing mode of state-owned small and medium-sized oil processing and trading enterprises will become fatal "dead holes" If we want to occupy the oil Huge market, must carry on the comprehensive transformation Therefore, the industry insiders pointed out that the glorious era of domestic edible oil market has passed, and the era of market pursuit of high profits has gone forever The domestic edible oil market will set off a greater storm At present, the market shock is far from the strongest wave.