Analysis of supply and demand of soybean market at home and abroad in the later period

Introduction: since the end of March, the domestic soybean price has increased slightly under the condition that the soybean market is not favored by the insiders, which has attracted the general attention of market dealers and oil processing plants According to the analysis of GfU insiders, the main reason for the rise in soybean prices is the recent reluctance of oil plants, spot traders and farmers to sell At present, the effective supply of soybean in the production area is seriously insufficient, which will give some support to soybean price to a certain extent At present, there are different opinions about the impact of the supply and demand of domestic soybean market on soybean price GfU I Analysis on the supply and demand relationship of domestic soybean market in this year GfU's domestic soybean supply in this year is 30.9 million tons, including 16.9 million tons of soybean output and 14 million tons of imports In terms of demand consumption, the consumption of food and seeds is 8.18 million tons, and that of domestic crushing is 21.6 million tons, of which the proportion of domestic soybeans is 37%, i.e 7.992 million tons, while that of imported soybeans is about 63%, i.e 13.608 million tons, and the consumption of demand is 29.78 million tons GfU comparative analysis of the relationship between the above-mentioned domestic and imported soybean crush demand and supply is not difficult to see that domestic soybean crush demand consumption (7.992 million tons) only accounts for 47.3% of the domestic soybean supply (16.9 million tons), the rest demand consumption is 8.908 million tons, while the import soybean crush demand consumption (13.608 million tons) accounts for 97.2% of the import soybean supply (14 million tons) The rest demand is 392000 tons, while the proportion of domestic soybean pressing demand consumption (21.6 million tons) to domestic soybean supply (30.9 million tons) is 69.9%, close to 70% Obviously, the proportion of imported soybean pressing demand consumption is far higher than that of domestic soybean pressing demand consumption This also means that the domestic demand for soybean crushing (21.6 million tons) has been significantly greater than the domestic soybean output (16.9 million tons), resulting in a large number of imported genetically modified soybeans entering the domestic market to supplement the supply gap of crushing demand consumption, while the domestic demand for edible soybeans (8.18 million tons) is significantly lower than the supply of domestic soybeans after the removal of crushing demand consumption (8.90 million tons) Million tons), which shows that the supply of imported genetically modified soybeans is relatively tight, and the supply of domestic non genetically modified soybeans is relatively loose However, the supply and demand of domestic soybean market is still restricted by the supply and demand of international soybean market In fact, due to the fact that non genetically modified soybeans are more used for food and less used for pressing at home and abroad, while imported genetically modified soybeans are more used for pressing and less used for other demand consumption, domestic demand for soybeans is still dominated by pressing, supplemented by eating, so the quality, safety, green and other advantages of non genetically modified soybeans at home and abroad compared with imported genetically modified soybeans The advantages of domestic non transgenic soybean price to imported transgenic soybean price have not been fully reflected Analysis on the supply and demand relationship of domestic soybean meal market in this year In this year, the domestic soybean meal supply is 17.25 million tons, an increase of 2.03 million tons on a year-on-year basis, the domestic demand consumption is 15.2 million tons, an increase of 700000 tons on a year-on-year basis, and the export volume is 1.2 million tons, an increase of 150000 tons on a year-on-year basis The demand consumption is 16.4 million tons, and the comparison of supply and demand shows that the supply is greater than the demand consumption by 850000 tons, which is a negative effect on the price trend of domestic soybean meal market GfU soybean oil: the domestic soybean oil supply in this year is 4.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.12 million tons, of which the soybean oil output in this year is 3.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 490000 tons, and the soybean oil import is 1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 630000 tons GfU's consumption of soybean oil consumption in this year is 3.4 million tons, an increase of 200000 tons on a year-on-year basis The consumption of other industrial needs is 600000 tons, and the total consumption is 4 million tons, an increase of 260000 tons on a year-on-year basis The comparison of soybean oil supply and demand shows that soybean oil supply is larger than soybean oil demand and consumption by 700000 tons In fact, the import quota of soybean oil is 2.8 million tons If we import the whole amount according to the import quota, the supply surplus will reach 2.5 million tons, which will have a heavy suppression on the price trend of domestic soybean oil market Gfu The relationship between supply and demand of domestic soybean products market shows that the relationship between supply and demand of imported genetically modified soybeans is relatively strong, while that between supply and demand of domestic non genetically modified soybeans is relatively weak At the same time, the relationship between supply and demand of soybean meal and soybean oil is weak Because the relationship between supply and demand of processed raw soybeans and that between supply and demand of processed main and by-product soybean oil and soybean meal is closely related, the relationship between supply and demand of processed main and by-product soybean meal is relatively strong The weak relationship between the supply and demand of soybean oil and soybean meal will lead to the weak relationship between the supply and demand of processing raw materials Analysis of the relationship between the prices of soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil in U.S soybean products market the recent futures price of cbota soybean in U.S market is 5.9 USD / bushel, equivalent to 216.8 USD / ton; the recent futures price of CBOT soybean meal in U.S market is 192.4 USD / ton, and the recent futures price of CBOT soybean oil in U.S market is 22 cents / pound, namely 484.6 USD/ If the processing loss is not considered, the processing price is 0.18 × 484.6 + 0.82 × 192.4 = 245 US dollars / ton if the processing loss is calculated as 0.18 tons of soybean oil and 0.82 tons of soybean meal processed by 1 ton of soybean Therefore, it shows that the soybean processing profit in the United States is relatively large, that is to say, the trend of CBOT soybean futures price in the United States constitutes a negative effect, and the CBOT in the United States is also a negative effect Soybean meal, soybean oil futures price trends constitute a negative role At present, the supply of global and domestic soybean market of GfU is relatively tense, which will support the domestic soybean price trend in the later period to a certain extent At present, the price of domestic soybean main production areas has been rising, and the price is still strong Although the international soybean price is optimistic, it will support the domestic soybean price trend to some extent GfU expects that the domestic soybean market price will rise in a certain extent in the short term, but with the arrival of a large number of domestic imported soybeans, the pressure on the domestic soybean market in the medium and long term will become increasingly obvious Gfu