Analysis of soybean supply and demand in the United States in July and August

Introduction: in August, the report was released in the expectation of the market, and people's first reaction was "neutral" In the report, on the basis of July, the U.S soybean yield was "appropriately" reduced, while the South American soybean yield was "appropriately" increased, and the demand for soybean was not changed much Combining with the current market, the author makes a brief analysis on the content of supply and demand in August report 1 U.S per unit yield and South American production report estimated that U.S soybean per unit yield in 2001-2002 was 38.7 bushels / acre, a decrease of 0.8 bushels / acre compared with the previous month; the harvested area was 74.1 million acres, a decrease of 200000 acres compared with the previous month; the total output was 2867 million bushels (78.04 million tons), a decrease of 68 million bushels (1.84 million tons) compared with the previous month At the same time, the report increased the output of Brazil and Argentina by 1 million tons and 500000 tons, respectively, to 39 million tons and 26 million tons; the output of China remained unchanged, still 15 million tons Taken together, the world output in this report is 360000 tons less than that of last month - an almost negligible figure Brief comment: the market always imagines tomorrow's "lunch" when the sun is still down As soon as the report was published, people began to argue about the final unit production of the United States "Based on historical experience and current weather conditions, the actual per unit yield is expected to decline (some people think there is still 2.6 bushels left to decline.)," said the bulls "American soybean podding process is still higher than the average progress, and the growth of crops has been quite stable since the beginning of July," the bearers said In any case, even if the U.S unit yield falls to 36 bushels / acre this year, the yield will reach 72.6 million tons due to the increase of harvest area compared with last year, which is still not lower than the production figure of 72.22 million tons last year It seems that there is little hope for negative output growth in the United States, let alone we can not underestimate the drought resistance of soybean crops! II Soybean demand In the August report, the U.S soybean crush volume in 2001-2002 decreased by 5 million bushels (136000 tons) compared with the previous month's figure, and the export decreased by 15 million bushels (408000 tons); the total consumption in China decreased by 100000 tons, to 29.6 million tons, the crush volume remained unchanged at 21.6 million tons, and the import volume increased by 500000 tons, to 14.5 million; the total consumption in Brazil and Argentina increased by 100000 tons, and the crush volume increased by 14.5 million tons The squeezing volume remained unchanged, but the export volume increased by 1.3 million tons In 2001-2002, the global total consumption increased by 450000 tons, including 50000 tons reduction in crushing, 810000 tons increase in export (due to the increase in South America's export), and only 480000 tons increase in import due to the adjustment of initial inventory Compared with last month, the report reduced US soybean oil production by 55 million pounds in 2001-02 and increased soybean oil demand by 250 million pounds, thus reducing the transfer inventory by 245 million pounds to 1905 trillion pounds The soybean meal transfer inventory remains at the previous month's value Brief comment: it can be seen that the global annual soybean crushing volume is still at a high level, but slightly lower than last month's figure, which indicates that the crushing demand did not continue to grow strongly this month The increase of total soybean consumption indicates that the demand outside of pressing has increased this month, which may be the reason for the increase of seed or edible demand However, in August, the report increased the demand for soybean oil in the United States by about 13% while reducing the amount of soybean pressing in the United States The increase of soybean oil demand is mainly due to the decrease of rapeseed production 3 In terms of inventory, the U.S soybean inventory in 2001-02 was 300 million bushels, 45 million bushels less than the report of last month, which was mainly due to the lower U.S unit production At the end of 2001-02, the world soybean inventory increased from 28.21 million tons to 28.63 million tons, mainly due to the increase of soybean production in South America In addition, the report also reevaluates the soybean inventory in China in the new year It is estimated that China's inventory at the beginning of 2001-02 is 5.13 million tons, higher than the original expected value of 3.68 million tons, and the ending inventory will increase from 2.74 million tons to 4.79 million tons, a significant increase compared with the expected value in July Overall, the August report shows that the supply and demand of soybeans are still roughly balanced Only from the supply and demand figures, the report does not let us find the basis of soybean demand "stronger than last month", but the demand of American soybean is likely to have "insufficient potential" But the demand for soybean oil can't help but make us "stand out" Combined with the current market, the introduction of the report and the expectation of dry weather in the United States in the near future make the short-term fundamentals appear "more neutral", but it is questionable whether this can constitute the driving force for the market to make another high Because the impact of the weather on the market will end with the coming of September, and with the arrival of the South American production season, the "South American new soybean planting area" will become the leading factor of the market, so the adjustment of the soybean market will occur sooner or later Whether the nature of this "adjustment" is the adjustment on the way up or the beginning of a new round of decline cycle is uncertain, which depends on the actual harvest of American beans and the increase of New South American beans.