Analysis of soybean meal market in the near future

Introduction: since April, the domestic soybean meal spot price has been in a low trend in the early stage of the reform, and the market price has risen rapidly Especially in the past week, the soybean meal price has been rising more rapidly In some areas, the price has increased by more than 100 yuan / ton, and the high increase has been close to 200 yuan / ton At present, the factory price of soybean meal in Dalian has risen to about 2150 yuan / ton, that of Changchun soybean meal in Jilin Province is about 2100 yuan / ton, that of Heilongjiang oil plant is 2080-2100 yuan / ton, and that of some oil plants is no longer available The factory price of soybean meal of most manufacturers in Shandong and Jiangsu Province has exceeded 2200 yuan/ Over tons, some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are still carrying out Limited sales The price in Guangdong has risen to 2350 yuan / ton The stock on the market has been exhausted There is basically no spot on the wharf It is expected that the price will rise further At the same time of the rapid rise of spot price, soybean meal futures price is even more bullish On April 17, mx308 contract closed at 2155 yuan / ton At one time, it touched a high of 2169 yuan, only 27 yuan away from its historical high of 2182 yuan Qf5 summarizes the reasons for the rapid rise of soybean meal price in the near future: first of all, CBOT price is the direct trigger for the sharp rise of soybean meal spot price With the continuous rise of CBOT soybean price, the average cost of soybean imported by domestic soybean processing enterprises is also rising In the first ten days of April, the centralized duty paying cost of soybean from China to the United States has reached 2580-2610 yuan / ton, significantly higher than 2450-2500 yuan / ton from February to March this year Secondly, the tight supply of soybean raw materials is another reason for the rising price of soybean meal At present, the supply of domestic soybean for oil has been basically cut off, and the price is more than 2600 yuan / ton, while the source of imported soybean is mostly monopolized by large-scale oil plants According to the arrival schedule of imported soybean, the recent arrival soybean is mainly American soybean, and the CIF price is also 2600 yuan/ Tons, the processing cost remains high In order to realize the sale at a favorable price, the major oil plants must continue to raise the sale price of soybean meal with the help of their monopoly advantages Third, the increasingly tight supply of soybean meal aggravates the price rise In addition to the tight supply of soybean resources, on the one hand, the current soybean crushing is still on the edge of loss On the other hand, as the domestic soybean market is about to face price reduction, in order to avoid the risk of price reduction, the oil plants would like to take advantage of this opportunity to implement shutdown and maintenance It is reported that the shutdown rate of oil plants in the main production area is increasing day by day Yantai, Shandong Province, is about to stop production Xiangchi has stopped a large production line and Longkou large oil plants are also shut down The large-scale oil plant in Nantong, East China, began to shut down on Friday, even if it started production, it did not produce at full capacity Obviously, the supply of soybean meal will be more tight in the later period It is said that the soybean meal orders of some oil plants have been followed up in late April, and the price has also increased with the day In the end, the short-term demand increase of the producers provided favorable support for the price increase of soybean meal In the early stage, people were generally uncertain about the oil and fat market in April, and most of the breeding factories kept a cautious attitude The purchase amount of meal products was also very limited, only for more than 10 days At present, it is faced with a new round of procurement, and the demand is expected to increase, which provides strong support for the rise of soybean meal price
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However, when the market is optimistic, we must be aware that the rapid rise of domestic soybean meal price is not based on the change of long-term supply-demand relationship It is doubtful whether the demand can really start The short-term decrease of supply only changes the local supply and demand situation From the perspective of the supply-demand relationship of soybean meal, the domestic soybean meal supply in this year is 1725 Million tons, an increase of 2.03 million tons on a year-on-year basis, 15.2 million tons of domestic demand consumption, 700000 tons on a year-on-year basis, and 1.2 million tons of exports, an increase of 150000 tons on a year-on-year basis The demand consumption is 16.4 million tons The comparison of supply and demand shows that the supply is larger than the demand consumption by 850000 tons Therefore, it has a negative effect on the price trend of domestic soybean meal market In the long run, the price trend of soybean meal is still relatively weak In the short term, due to the sharp increase of soybean meal price, it will bring huge profits to the crushing enterprises, which will lead to the recovery of production and the improvement of soybean meal supply In addition, with the continuous arrival of imported soybeans from South America, the shortage of raw material supply will also be alleviated, and the possible peak of raw material supply may occur subsequently, which will also bring pressure on the price of soybean meal Therefore, we believe that soybean meal prices will face greater pressure in the later period, and the market risk of price decline may be released at any time (Information Center of Jilin Grain Bureau) qf5 qf5