Analysis of recent soybean market dynamics

Introduction: looking forward to the domestic soybean market in 2002, it is still the supply-demand relationship that holds the bull's ear, but it does not exclude the sharp impact of policy factors on the soybean market in the short term Here we make a simple analysis of the recent market situation: the domestic soybean price is driven by the rapid increase of imported soybean price On January 7, the Ministry of agriculture finally issued the implementation rules of the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, which has been long awaited by the market Driven by the implementation rules of the genetically modified organisms, the soybean price in Dalian rose and stopped continuously from January 7 to 8 The distributors of imported soybeans began to raise the distribution quotation of imported soybeans in the port area in the afternoon of January 7, and suspended the distribution quotation of imported soybeans successively from January 8 At the same time of suspending the quotation of imported soybeans, the price of imported soybeans traded in small quantities has increased by 40-50 yuan / ton compared with that before January 7 In Shandong and Jiangsu ports, the transaction price of South American soybeans rose from 1850-1860 yuan / ton on January 6 to 1890-1900 yuan / ton, while that of American soybeans rose from 1870-1880 yuan / ton on January 6 to 1910-1920 yuan / ton During January 9-10, distributors continued to hold a general mentality of reluctant to sell imported soybeans from the spot, which formed a huge contrast with the mentality before the release of the detailed rules At the same time, the enthusiasm of domestic soybean processing plants to purchase imported soybeans is obviously on the rise While the price of imported soybeans has been rising rapidly, the price of domestic soybeans has remained basically stable in recent days, which is mainly caused by the relatively slow change of the market policies of the main production areas in the north With the increase of the price of imported soybeans, soybean manufacturers will turn their attention to domestic soybeans with relatively low price, and the demand for domestic soybeans will increase It is expected that domestic soybean prices will gradually show a steady upward trend in the near future Understanding and speculation of policy factors have become the absolute driving force influencing this wave of price trend Soybean futures and port prices will remain stable at high prices in the middle and early days of January, before the Ministry of agriculture has started to accept the work of safety assessment and safety certificate application, or has not made further explanation for the specific terms of the detailed rules In the middle and early days of January, if the Ministry of agriculture begins to accept the application for safety assessment and safety certificate, and the relevant acceptance work is relatively smooth, the soybean futures price and port spot price may fall accordingly If at that time the Ministry of agriculture has not yet begun to accept the work, or has not yet made a definite explanation for the implementation of the detailed rules, then the soybean market will get rid of the wait-and-see state and have a new rise again Once this situation occurs, the futures and port spot prices will rise for a relatively long time Therefore, in January, the domestic soybean futures and imported soybean spot prices will be subject to another large fluctuation, and the new fluctuation will be likely to occur in late January In the long run, the negative is far greater than the positive First of all, the rapid rise of the price is mainly due to the fact that the detailed rules for the implementation of the safety management regulations have not been officially put into operation, and the Ministry of agriculture has not yet begun to accept the application for safety assessment and safety certificate, which causes many questions about it The main wonderful thing is people's psychology, that is, they are worried about the shortage or disconnection of the imported soybean market, which is not the root of the supply-demand relationship in the market This change Since China has officially entered the WTO at the end of 2001, the impact of the implementation of the detailed rules in the early stage may indeed exist, but in the long run, the implementation of the detailed rules will not have a significant impact on the domestic market Secondly, the Spring Festival is approaching in the past years, which is the time for the feed and breeding industry to start preparing goods for the festival period The rise of soybean meal price will often lead to the rise of soybean price This year, the soybean meal market supply capacity is still high, and the feed and breeding industry is bearish on the future soybean meal price, and the soybean meal price is difficult to rise significantly in the short term Third, after China's accession to the WTO, the tax rate of soybean oil has dropped from 13% to 9%, and private enterprises are allowed to operate The reduction of tax rate will make a large amount of low-cost soybean oil flow into the international market, and breaking the government monopoly will make it difficult for the government to control the import volume, which will lower the domestic soybean oil price, impact the domestic small and medium-sized oil processing plants, and will also be a pressure on the domestic soybean market Fourth, according to the forecast of the United States Department of agriculture, the world soybean production in 2001 / 02 may reach 183.17 million tons, compared with 174.8 million tons last year, an increase of 09.09 million tons or 5.2% This will make it difficult to improve the situation of oversupply in the world soybean market, which will have a negative impact on the international soybean market price and indirectly restrain the domestic market Therefore, although the soybean price is affected by the detailed rules for the implementation of the safety regulations in the short term, the domestic soybean market will rise driven by the imported soybean price But in the long run, the negative factors in the soybean market are greater than the positive factors After this rebound, the price will fall and remain relatively stable.