Analysis of poultry production and market situation in the first three quarters of this year

Introduction: Abstract: in the third quarter, the poultry production continued to maintain a stable growth trend, the price of chicken production areas began to rise, and the price of live chicken was running steadily at a low level; internationally, the price of chicken in the United States also gradually came out of the trough, and began to show signs of recovery; since this year, the import and export of poultry and edible offal in China have declined significantly It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the poultry production in China will continue to increase steadily, the price of broilers will continue to rise, the price of poultry in the United States will continue to hover at a low level, the price of poultry in the European Union will be depressed again, the price of chicken in Japan is expected to come out of the trough, the situation of poultry export in China is still not optimistic, and the price of chicken in China will show a seasonal recovery 1 Poultry production maintained a steady growth trend In the first three quarters of 2002, China's poultry production was 10.5607 million tons, an increase of 6.78% over the same period of last year, 30.86% over the same period of 2000, and 16.60% over the second quarter In the first three quarters, there were 21 provinces (cities and districts) that produced more than 100000 tons of poultry meat The top five provinces are Shandong Province (1693300 tons), Sichuan Province (974200 tons), Guangdong Province (944500 tons), Jiangsu Province (768000 tons) and Hebei Province (651200 tons), accounting for 16.03%, 9.23%, 8.94%, 7.27% and 6.17% of China's total poultry production respectively, and the five provinces account for 47.64% of China's total poultry production 2 The price of chicken in the production area rose and the price in the sales area fell back in the third quarter of 2002 The overall level of domestic chicken price showed an upward trend In September 2002, the average wholesale price of suit chicken was 9.70 yuan / kg, 3.19% higher than that in June From June to September 2002, the price of chicken in various regions changed The regions where the price of chicken increased were mainly in Guizhou, Sichuan, Henan, Jilin, Jiangxi, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangxi, Hunan and other chicken producing regions, which increased by 10.89%, 10.64%, 7.01%, 6.26%, 5.17%, 4.79%, 4.76%, 4.52% and 4.09% respectively The regions where the price of chicken decreased were mainly in Shanxi In the western regions of Fujian, Chongqing, Gansu, Qinghai, Heilongjiang, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Inner Mongolia and several large cities, the consumption of chicken decreased by 14.11%, 11.17%, 9.09%, 4.21%, 4.11%, 3.66%, 3.50%, 2.11%, 1.48% and 1.39% respectively 3 The low level of live chicken price was running smoothly In the third quarter of 2002, the average retail price of live chicken in China was 8.88 yuan / kg, 0.78% lower than that in the second quarter, and 4.52% lower than that in the first quarter In the third quarter of 2002, the prices of live chickens in 15 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) showed a rising trend, but the rising range was not large Compared with June, in September, except Ningxia and Zhejiang, the prices of live chickens in other regions increased by 5.15% and 1.05%, respectively The prices of live chickens in 14 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) showed a downward trend, including Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Hainan The largest decline was 10.00%, 2.17% and 1.00% respectively, while the decline of other provinces (cities and autonomous regions) was less than 1.00% Source: National Animal Husbandry and veterinary station IV the U.S chicken price has been rising slowly since September 2001 Although the U.S chicken price has been declining for a short time in the second quarter of 2002, and basically maintained the level of the second quarter in the third quarter, it is still slightly worse than the same period last year In the third quarter of 2002, the price of chicken in the United States was stable with a slight decline In September 2002, the average wholesale price of chicken in 12 cities in the United States decreased by 3.0% compared with June, 8.76% compared with the same period last year; the wholesale price of chicken at George Asia terminal decreased by 0.24% compared with June, 3.22% compared with the same period last year 5 The import and export of poultry meat and edible offal decreased significantly From January to September, the total export volume of poultry meat and edible offal in China was 225546.96 tons, 17.73% lower than that of the same period last year Among them, 89943.68 tons were exported to Japan, down 32.39% compared with the same period last year; 42003.61 tons were exported to Hong Kong, up 27.82% compared with the same period last year; 27877.88 tons were exported to Saudi Arabia, up 8.10% compared with the same period last year; 14969.43 tons were exported to Russia, up 169.49% compared with the same period last year; 10 tons were exported to Malaysia, 963.63 tons, an increase of 17.81% compared with the same period last year; 2141.11 tons exported to Bahrain, an increase of 58.93% compared with the same period last year; 1581.94 tons exported to Kuwait, an decrease of 8.31% compared with the same period last year; 7765.35 tons exported to Singapore, an increase of 10.34% compared with the same period last year; 3964.76 tons exported to Slovakia, an increase of 11.29% compared with the same period last year; 3, 508.99 tons, an increase of 75.09% compared with the same period last year From January to September 2002, the import volume of poultry meat and edible offal in China was 414155.88 tons, 21.19% less than that in the same period last year Among them, 386110.87 tons were imported from the United States, down 6.61% from the same period last year; 3633.40 tons from France, down 23.65% from the same period last year; 3892.81 tons from Argentina, down 59.84% from the same period last year; 2586.18 tons from Turkey, down 67.29% from the same period last year Vi outlook for the fourth quarter (1) poultry production will continue to increase steadily According to statistics from the national animal husbandry and veterinary station, poultry production in China will increase in the first, second and third quarters of 2002, while the fourth quarter is the peak period of poultry consumption Poultry producers will seize the opportunity to increase poultry production appropriately Therefore, it can be predicted that the continuous and stable increase of poultry production in the whole year is basically a foregone conclusion, and the growth rate of poultry production in the second half of this year is between 6% and 8% Source: the price of broilers continued to rise in the third quarter of 2002 at the national animal husbandry and veterinary station (2) Affected by the price rise in chicken producing areas, the price of broilers began to rise In September, the average price of broilers in various regions in China was 2.20 yuan / chicken, 12.24% higher than that in June, but 2.65% lower than that in the same period last year With the coming of winter, the consumption of chicken by urban residents in China has increased, and the price of chicken has risen, which will drive the price of broilers to rise, especially the arrival of consumption peak on New Year's day and Spring Festival In the fourth quarter, the enthusiasm of broilers to supplement the market is high, the demand for broilers has increased, and the price of broilers may rise slightly (3) there is little room for the world poultry price to recover 1 The US poultry price will continue to decline In the second quarter of 2002, poultry production in the United States was 3.77 million tons, an increase of 3.30% over the same period of last year; in the third quarter, poultry production in the United States was about 3.7195 million tons, an increase of 3.40% over the same period of last year; it is expected that the growth rate of poultry production in the fourth quarter of 2002 will slow down, but it will still increase by about 0.70-1.00% over the same period of 2001 Since this year, the U.S poultry export situation has been unfavorable, with the export volume of 508 thousand and 700 tons in the second quarter, a decrease of 20% compared with the same period last year First, due to trade friction with Russia, poultry exports to Russia in the first half of the year decreased by about 30.00% compared with the same period last year; second, poultry exports to Hong Kong, China and Japan were also unsatisfactory, showing a downward trend; only poultry exports to South Korea and Mexico showed a growth momentum With the settlement of the trade dispute between the United States and Russia, it is expected that the export of poultry in the second half of the year will increase to about 1.13 million tons, but it will still decrease by about 7.00% compared with the same period last year It can be seen that in the second half of 2002, due to the continuous increase of poultry production and the decrease of export volume, the domestic poultry price in the United States will maintain a low level 2 The European Union poultry price will be depressed again The outbreak of BSE in Europe in 2001 once made the meat consumption of European countries shift from beef to poultry, which stimulated the price and production of poultry However, with the gradual calm of BSE, beef consumption in the European market gradually picked up In the first half of 2002, due to the transition of EU poultry producers to estimate the impact of BSE, they competed to expand the scale of poultry production, resulting in oversupply and low prices In addition, since this year, the export of poultry and meat in EU countries has fluctuated, while the import has continued to increase In the first half of 2002, European Union's import of saltwater chicken to Brazil and Thailand maintained the momentum of continuous growth Although European Commission put saltwater chicken into the category of frozen chicken in June 2002, in order to increase import tariffs, but from the current situation, this is not enough to reduce the import of poultry meat Moreover, the signing of the "double zero agreement" will also promote the export of poultry meat from the ten central and Eastern European countries (Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) to the EU In 2002, EU poultry exports decreased slightly Due to the restriction of the main importing country, the United Arab Emirates, on August 1 in the event of medroxyprogesteron acetate (MPA), Brazil took the opportunity to replace France and occupy the poultry market in the United Arab Emirates European Union poultry meat (mostly German poultry meat) only partially replaced American poultry meat during the poultry trade dispute between the United States and Russia, with a small amount exported to Russia As the MPA storm subsides, the United Emirates of Saudi Arabia will lift the ban on EU poultry, but the market share that will be occupied by Brazil will be hard to regain Therefore, in the second half of the year, the price of poultry in the EU market is expected to remain low under the circumstances of increased production and unfavorable export 3 The price of Japanese chicken is expected to get out of the trough Since this year, the price of Japanese chicken has been in a continuous downturn, once falling to the bottom This is mainly due to the following reasons: (1) influenced by the world cup in Korea and Japan, Japanese chicken importers mistakenly estimated the situation and blindly imported a large amount of chicken (2) the outbreak of mad cow disease reduced the consumption of beef, increased the consumption of pork and chicken, and increased the stock of chicken (3) the occurrence of Japan's commercial agency's camouflage of the origin identification event made it difficult for consumers to distinguish between the local chicken and the imported chicken The consumption quantity decreased, and the wholesale price of the imported chicken also decreased accordingly Since the second half of the year, after a long period of weakness and depression in the Japanese chicken market, consumption has gradually picked up and market prices have recovered, especially wholesale prices are bottoming out This is mainly due to: (1) in the first half of the year, Japan imported chicken from the United States and China, found that some items did not meet the requirements of health and quarantine, and successively stopped importing chicken from the United States and China (2) in September, Brazil's poultry exports to Japan decreased sharply, and Japan's chicken stock decreased (3) in September, all kinds of schools in Japan started school Chicken has always been the main raw material for student meals, and the demand for chicken has increased significantly (4) the export situation of poultry meat in China is not optimistic In 2002, the export of poultry meat in China was restricted by Japan, Russia, Switzerland and other countries Although the ban of Russia and Switzerland has been lifted, the restrictions of Japan continue Because the export of poultry meat to Japan accounts for 40% - 60% of the total export, Japan has a great influence on the export of poultry meat In the first half of this year, China actively expanded the export markets of poultry meat in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Hong Kong, Singapore and so on, and achieved good results, but still could not make up for the impact on Japan's export decline The export of poultry meat was far lower than that of last year