Analysis of poultry market situation in the third quarter and its future prospects

Introduction: Content abstract: in the third quarter of 2004, poultry production continued to show a recovering growth trend, the price of broilers rose sharply, and the price of suit chicken and live chicken continued to rise under the influence of the price of broiler compound feed and the two festivals (National Day and Mid Autumn Festival) The import and export of poultry products fell, and trade continued to maintain a surplus 1 Poultry production continued to grow in a restorative way Affected by the outbreak of avian influenza this spring, poultry production was severely damaged in the first quarter With the overall control of the epidemic situation, support policies have been put in place and production has recovered rapidly Especially in the third quarter, the efficiency of poultry industry has risen rapidly, which has greatly promoted the recovery and development of poultry industry According to industry statistics, in the first half of the year, there were four provinces with poultry meat output of more than 500000 tons, including Shandong, Sichuan, Guangdong and Henan, accounting for 15.75%, 10.07%, 7.81% and 6.73% of the total poultry meat output respectively, accounting for 40.36% of the total poultry meat output in China There are six provinces (cities and districts) that produce more than 300000 tons of poultry meat, namely Jiangsu, Hebei, Liaoning, Guangxi, Hunan and Anhui, accounting for 32.59% of the national poultry meat production 2 Analysis on the import and export situation of poultry products from January to September, the export volume of poultry products in China was 428 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 27.06%; the import volume was 135 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 59.21%; and the cumulative net export volume was 293 million US dollars (I) the export and import of poultry meat and offal decreased from January to September The export value of poultry meat and offal was US $105 million, accounting for 24.47% of the total export value of poultry products, a year-on-year decrease of 50.55%; the export volume was 85100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 56.54% The main export countries and regions of poultry meat and offal are Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea, with an export volume of 88700 tons, accounting for 97.24% of the total export volume of poultry meat and offal Guangdong, Shandong, Liaoning, Henan and Jilin are the top five provinces (cities) in the export of poultry meat and offal, with a total export value of 98.363 million US dollars, accounting for 93.87% of the total export of poultry meat and offal Compared with the same period last year, except for Henan, the export of other provinces and cities decreased by 8.71% From the perspective of trade mode, the export of general trade mode is 103 million US dollars, accounting for 98.22% of the total export of poultry and offal; the proportion of import processing and other export modes is very small The cumulative import volume of poultry meat and offal was 153300 tons, and the import volume was 127 million US dollars, down 66.34% and 60.52% year on year respectively The main source countries of poultry and offal import are: Malaysia and France The import volume is US $118 million, accounting for 81.94% of the total import volume of poultry and offal Compared with the same period last year, France increased by 294.76 times, while Malaysia decreased by 72.29% The top five import provinces (cities) are: Guangdong, Shanghai, Liaoning, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, with an import volume of 123 million US dollars, accounting for 97.32% of the import volume of poultry meat and offal; compared with the same period last year, the import volume of Liaoning and Jiangsu increased, while that of Guangdong, Shanghai and Zhejiang decreased From the perspective of trade mode, the import of general trade mode is 126 million US dollars, accounting for 99.61% of the total import of poultry meat and offal; the rest is the way of feed processing (2) the export volume of processed poultry decreased by 91200 tons and the export volume was US $300 million, down 17.84% and 7.63% respectively year on year The main export countries and regions of processed poultry are: Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea, with an export volume of US $292 million, accounting for 97.51% of the export volume of processed poultry; among them, the export volume to Japan and Hong Kong decreased by 9.25% and 21.07% year-on-year respectively, and the export volume to South Korea increased by 1.68 times The top five provinces (cities) in the export of processed poultry are Shandong, Beijing, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Hebei The export volume is 242 million US dollars, accounting for 80.83% of the export of processed poultry In terms of trade mode, the export of general trade mode is US $209 million, accounting for 69.70% of the export of processed poultry; the import processing mode is US $90.7853 million, accounting for 30.27% of the export (3) the export of live poultry decreased The import of breeding poultry decreased the export of live poultry (excluding breeding poultry) by 12.897 million, a year-on-year decrease of 55.36%; the export value was 23.4825 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 53.46% China's live poultry are mainly exported to Hong Kong and Macao Among them, exports to Hong Kong amounted to US $18.7278 million, down 58.39% year on year Live poultry is mainly exported from Guangdong Province, with an export volume of US $22.6234 million, accounting for 96.34% of the export volume of live poultry, down 53.59% year on year The import quantity of breeding birds was 590300, and the import value was US $8.19 million, down 23.33% and 6.90% respectively year on year The source countries of breeding poultry import are mainly Britain and Germany The import volume is 470500, accounting for 79.71% of the total The provinces and cities that import more are Beijing, Shandong and Jilin 3 Domestic price analysis (1) poultry price analysis in the third quarter of 2004, the price of suit chicken and live chicken in most regions of China continued to rise Affected by the increase of feed and broiler prices, coupled with the double pull of national day and Mid Autumn Festival demand, the poultry price in this quarter hit a new high in recent years 1 The price of suit chicken in the third quarter of 2004 was 10.86 yuan / kg, 8.93% higher than that in the second quarter, and 16.99% higher than that in the same period of last year From the perspective of main production areas, the average price of suit chicken in the third quarter was 10.73 yuan / kg It is 20.08% higher than the same period last year and 11.79% higher than the second quarter Compared with the same period last year, the growth rate of the five major production areas (including Sichuan, Jiangsu, Shandong and Hebei) was over 14.5%, among which Sichuan and Jiangsu increased by 24.31% and 22.61% respectively In terms of main sales areas, the average price of suit chicken in the third quarter of 2004 was 12.36 yuan / kg, up 17.30% compared with the same period of last year and 12.34% compared with the second quarter Compared with the same period last year, the four major sales areas all rose sharply, with Fujian up 23.48%, Shanghai up 20.90%, Tianjin up 14.89% and Beijing up 8.71% 2 The average price of live chicken in the third quarter of 2004 was 19.66 yuan / kg Compared with the same period last year, 28 provinces and regions increased by more than 10% Compared with the last quarter, most regions also showed an upward trend, with an average increase of 10.27% The price trend of live chicken in the main production area and main marketing area is basically consistent with that of the whole country (2) analysis on the price of broilers in the third quarter of 2004, the price of broilers increased significantly In the third quarter, the average price of broilers was 2.08 yuan per chicken, up 18.63% from the second quarter and 22.35% from the same period last year Compared with the previous quarter, all the prices in the production areas rose, 29.43% in Sichuan, 16.74% in Guangdong, 14.39% in Jiangsu, 14.11% in Shandong and 3.46% in Hebei (3) the average price of compound feed in the third quarter of 2004 was 2.19 yuan / kg, the highest in recent years It is up 20.15% compared with the same period last year The average price of broiler compound feed in the main production areas in the three quarters of this year was 2.19 yuan / kg, up 22.25% year-on-year and 1.27% higher than that in the second quarter 4 Analysis of international market situation (1) analysis of poultry price in the United States, the average price of chicken in 12 cities in the United States in the third quarter of 2004 was 75.59 cents / pound, up 19.30% compared with the same period last year The average price of chicken at the Georgia wharf is 78.36 cents / pound, up 17.64% from the same period last year At the end of June 2004, the average price of chicken in 12 cities began to fall, from 82.00 cents / pound at the end of June to 69.75 cents / pound at the end of September, a drop of 14.94% At the end of September, the price of chicken at Georgia terminal was 76.85 cents / pound, up 13.67% year-on-year, still down 2.41% compared with the end of June this year The decline in poultry prices is mainly due to the increase in domestic poultry production in the United States, while the decline in exports, resulting in a relative oversupply (II) production and Trade Analysis in the third quarter of 2004, poultry production in the United States increased to 3.9952 million tons, 14 thousand tons higher than expected, 4.1% higher than the same period last year Poultry production is expected to reach 3.9044 million tons in the fourth quarter, but it is still 4.1% higher than the same period last year In the first half of 2004, U.S poultry exports to Asian countries amounted to 64000 tons, a decrease of 144400 tons over the same period last year Poultry exports fell to 456300 tons in the third quarter and are expected to reach 499400 tons in the fourth quarter The decrease of export volume is mainly due to the decrease of export volume to Asian countries, especially to Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan V outlook on the situation in the fourth quarter of 2004 (I) international situation: Poultry prices in the United States continued to fall in the fourth quarter Due to the year-on-year growth of poultry production in the United States, exports have declined, and the price of meat is expected to fall Since last year's implementation of quota import of meat products in Russia, the import volume of meat products has been greatly reduced In the first half of this year, due to the factor of avian influenza, Russia continued to reduce the import of poultry products, while the supply of domestic meat products in Russia failed to meet the market demand, resulting in the continuous rise of the price of meat products in the Russian market Due to the successive occurrence of avian influenza in Thailand and Vietnam, which has affected Japan's import of poultry and meat products, resulting in insufficient supply, it is inevitable that the original high price will continue to rise (II) domestic situation: poultry production will continue to grow in the fourth quarter of 2004 Domestic consumers' demand for poultry meat is stable, while the price of feed materials remains high, which will continue to promote the high price of domestic poultry meat