Analysis of palm oil market at home and abroad

Introduction: from the middle of last year to the middle of last year, with the price of oilseeds and oilseeds rising in the international market, palm oil has come out of the trough since 2001, and reached a 40 month high (usd459.50/mt FOB of 24 degree palm oil) in January this year The increase was once greater than the trend of CBOT In March this year, the price of palm oil in the international market fell, leading to a corresponding decline in the price of domestic ports Taking Tianjin Port as an example, 24 degree palm oil has dropped more than 200 yuan How about the future market? I think it's a prudent long market SYJ 1 Changes in international palm oil prices in recent years The average price of SYJ 24 degree palm oil in 1998 was US $664 FOB Malaysia Due to the rapid growth of palm oil production, the price fell for three consecutive years, reaching the lowest point in 2001 Malaysian officials have taken various measures to reduce inventories and expand the use of palm oil industry With the decrease of international edible oil production in 2002, the demand of China, India, Pakistan, Middle East countries and other countries increased, and the palm oil market began to recover Prices have also broken the $350, $400 and $450 mark in a row In the past five years, the quarterly change of prices has the following characteristics: in five years, there are four years that fall in February and rise in March; in five years, all rise in April (except this year); the cheapest month is generally concentrated in November February, and the most expensive month is possible throughout the year SYJ's palm oil market was abnormal in 2002 Led by soybean oil and other edible oil varieties, the off-season was not light Since November 2002, although there has been a correction due to the light trading, the price is still at a relatively high level This week, although the decline is deep, the volume of trading is obviously shrinking, and there is a sign of stopping the decline and stabilizing With the temperature rising, palm oil consumption peak season is coming, the price drop will be short-lived, will move closer to CBOT SYJ 2 Palm oil production, inventory and CBOT impact SYJ oil world, Hamburg, Germany, claimed in the first ten days of March that by the end of March 2003, the palm oil storage stock had dropped to the lowest 3 million tons in four years If there were further problems in production, the price might exceed 1700 ringgit / ton Oil world forecasts that Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producer, will produce 12.2 million tons of palm oil this year, an increase of 0.3% over 2002 Although the newly planted oil palm has been gradually in full production in the past few years, the slow growth of palm oil production is mainly due to the drought in most parts of Malaysia last year, which reduced the per unit palm oil production Indonesia, the second largest palm oil producer, will produce 9.1 million tons of palm oil in 2003, compared with 8.8 million tons in 2002 Although SYJ has a good soybean harvest in South America, CBOT has reached new highs in recent years, while palm oil is in the opposite direction, with a difference of nearly $100 between the two In normal years, the spread is usually $40 to $50 The bigger the price difference, the more attractive brown oil is to India, Pakistan and other edible oil importing countries With the increase of purchase quantity, the price difference between brown oil and soybean oil will further narrow SYJ 3 The impact of the US Iraq war on palm oil prices SYJ Middle East is a major consumer of palm oil The average annual import volume of palm oil in Middle East countries is 2 million tons With the outbreak of war, the sea freight rate in the Middle East region will rise At the same time, the consumption volume in the region will also be limited, which has affected the market price of palm oil Europe is also a major consumer of palm oil The direct impact of the war on palm oil exports is the rise in freight rates and the basic disruption of navigation through the Suez Canal to European countries During the war, the cost will increase and the consumption will decrease The price is mainly based on the output and consumption If the demand affected by the war is limited, the price will also decrease But with the war almost over, palm oil prices will be supported as demand resumes in the Middle East and Europe SYJ 4 The expansion of palm oil imports from China and India will boost the price of international palm oil market SYJ according to the data of cooit, the central oil trade organization of India, in 2002 / 03 (November October), India's winter oil seed production may be reduced to 9.72 million tons, lower than the previous year's 12.3 million tons, due to insufficient rainfall in rainy season and reduced productivity At present, soybean oil prices are high, palm oil is the cheapest edible oil, so as the main consumer of palm oil, India has little room to pick and choose SYJ in 2002, China's total palm oil quota was 2.4 million tons, while the actual import of palm oil reached 2.22 million tons, an increase of 46.3% over the previous year In 2003, China's palm oil quota was further increased to 2.5 million tons, and the actual import volume is expected to reach 2.4 million tons, which is further increased on the basis of the import volume in 2002 And with the warmer weather and the increasing use of palm oil, domestic traders are more willing to purchase relatively cheap palm oil SYJ to sum up, in the short term, the price of palm oil in China will fluctuate with the change of international palm oil market, the port inventory is relatively large, and the price is likely to decline slightly In the long run, the domestic palm oil market is affected by the warming weather and the increase of use The price is estimated to be about 5000 yuan It is recommended to buy some palm oil in June
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