Analysis of oil and fat supply and demand in China in 2001-02

Introduction: in the past 15 years, China's oil production has grown rapidly, while the consumption of oil and meal has grown faster The planting area and output of nine major oil plants in China increased from 24 million hectares and 31.2 million tons in 1986 / 1987 to 28.4 million hectares and 48.3 million tons in 2000 / 2001, respectively The output figures include peanuts without hulls Among them, the output of rapeseed increased the most, from 5.9 million tons in 1986 / 1987 to 11.4 million tons in 2000 / 2001; the output of peanut increased from 4.1 million tons to 10.1 million tons, while the output of soybean, cottonseed and sunflower seed increased slightly, from 11.6 million tons, 6.6 million tons and 1.55 million tons to 15.3 million tons, 7.9 million tons and 1.95 million tons respectively China's oil consumption increased from 7.2 million tons in 1986 / 1987 to 18.65 million tons in 2000 / 2001, an increase of 159%, which made the oil industry show a more rapid growth trend In 2000 / 2001, the consumption of soybean oil was estimated to be 3.37 million tons, twice of that in 1986 / 1987; the consumption of peanut oil and rapeseed oil was 2.37 million tons and 4.59 million tons, respectively, about doubled; the consumption of palm oil was more prominent, from 250000 tons in 1986 / 1987 to 1.94 million tons in 2000 / 2001 (estimated), while the domestic production was almost zero The average consumption of 17 kinds of oil increased from 6.7 kg in 1986 / 1987 to 14.8 kg in 2000 / 2001, an increase of 121% Animal husbandry has also seen an amazing growth, with the rapid growth of meat, poultry, egg, milk and aquatic products This is also the key factor for the consumption of oil meal in China to increase from 11 million tons 14 years ago to 34.3 million tons in 2000 / 2001 Soybean meal consumption alone increased from 1.9 million tons in 1986 / 87 to 15.7 million tons in 2000 / 2001 In recent years, the oil press industry has shown a rapid and stable growth trend, from 20.8 million tons in the mid-1980s to 47.6 million tons in 2000 / 2001 At this growth rate, it is estimated that it will reach 50 million tons in 2001 / 2002 Domestic production can not keep up with the rapid growth of oil demand Therefore, China has become the world's largest importer from the major oil exporter in the 1980s and 1990s China imported 15 million tons of oil in 2000 / 2001 (3.3 million tons in 1997 / 1998 and 200000 tons in 1986 / 1987), including 13 million tons of soybeans and 2.45 million tons of rapeseed Similarly, in the aspect of oil, China is also more and more dependent on imports In the past few years, China has implemented strict restrictions on the import of soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, such as quotas and tariffs, which has accelerated the development of domestic oil processing industry, but also restricted the import of soybean oil, rapeseed oil and soybean meal In contrast, palm oil imports have grown rapidly Some changes in the new year will change the trade structure of oilseeds, Oils and oilmeal, especially in the early stage of China's accession to the WTO, which will have a significant impact on domestic oilseed import and processing plants Another problem is the genetically modified regulation, which requires all imported oilseeds to have safety certificates, but the specific implementation depends on the judgment of port inspectors Most of soybeans in the United States and Argentina are genetically modified crops, and the proportion of genetically modified crops in Brazil is increasing Affected by this, China's soybean importers recently hesitated, soybean imports will slow down Domestic processors are likely to slow down processing or move to Australia and Europe However, as the growth rate of domestic demand is still higher than that of production, China still relies on imports Genetically modified regulations may harm the domestic oilseed processing industry, increase their processing costs and affect their processing profits It is estimated that China's oil seed production in 2001 / 2002 was 48.9 million tons, only 1.4% higher than last year It is predicted that soybean planting area and yield will decrease, peanut yield will stagnate, and rapeseed and cottonseed yield will increase significantly In 2001 / 2002, the processing volume of oil seeds is likely to increase from 47.6 million tons in the previous year to 49.8 million tons The situation in the oil market is that domestic production will decline and soybean oil import will increase from 180000 tons last year to 500000 tons Palm oil and vegetable oil imports fell due to a lack of supply in the world market In 2000 / 2001, China's coconut oil and palm kernel oil imports increased significantly, reaching a record of 186000 and 85000 tons It is predicted that China's net oil import will rise to 3 million tons in 2001 / 2002, and the growth rate of domestic oil consumption will slow down compared with the previous two years The domestic consumption of oil meal will continue to increase significantly, reaching 37.2 million tons in 2001 / 2002 As the supply of rapeseed meal declines, more demand will shift to soybean meal, and the annual soybean meal import is expected to rise to 700000 tons from 120000 tons last year.