Analysis of import data of copper ore and its concentrates

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrate in May were 1.
69 million tons, down 7.
97% year-on-year and 16.
21%
month-on-month.
Chile remains China's largest supplier of copper ore and its concentrates, with exports to China of 604,121 tons, an increase of 26.
46%
year-on-year.

Affected by the epidemic, mines in major copper-producing countries reduced production, and processing fees fell below US$54/ton
.
Chile, Peru (two countries account for 40% of global copper mine production) and other major copper mine producing countries accelerated the deterioration of the epidemic, the world's major mining enterprises lowered their annual production expectations, of which the determined impact has been more than 400,000 tons, some mining enterprises because of the inability to assess the impact of the epidemic on production, have not announced the specific estimated impact, it is expected that the output of large mining enterprises in the second quarter or decline
sharply.

In view of the great uncertainty of the epidemic in South America, there are still certain risks
in the global supply of copper concentrate.
Due to the great controversy over supply disturbances in all links of the copper industry chain, the current copper concentrate import processing fee TC is deadlocked at a low level of 50 US dollars / ton, and there is less supply in the spot market, suggesting that the supply of overseas copper ore is still tight
in stages.
According to industry data and statistics agencies, the growth rate of global copper mine production in 2020 will drop from the previously predicted 3% to about 1%, and the current new crown epidemic will interfere with the mine end close to 1%, and the global conservative estimate interference rate is 2%-3%.

Copper is a strategically important resource
for the national economy.
Of China's 124 important industries, 91% are copper-related
.
Between 1999 and 2007, China's copper consumption rose from 1.
48 million tons to more than 4 million tons, and China has replaced the United States as the world's largest copper producer and consumer
.
However, there is a large gap between China's copper production and domestic market demand, and more than two-thirds of the copper concentrate required by domestic enterprises for smelting needs to be imported from abroad, which is difficult to change
for a long time.
It can be seen from the import data that there was a significant decline in May, and the arrival of copper concentrate is still likely to continue to decline due to
the impact of the epidemic in South America in the future.
This also means that in the third quarter, domestic copper smelters will continue to face a shortage of raw materials
.