Analysis of future market from several aspects of wheat market

Introduction: in the near future, the price trend of the domestic wheat market remains stable At the beginning of the new year, affected by the basic factors such as the decline of output and the decrease of inventory, the domestic wheat price goes out of the short and smooth rising range The favorable effect of the later Fundamentals will gradually fade in the market, and new market influencing factors will be gestated Whether the trend of stable operation of domestic wheat price can continue to become the focus of the industry competition, in this regard, the author analyzes the main factors affecting the trend of domestic wheat market The specific situation is as follows: the planting area of n5c high-quality wheat has increased, and the market has added new highlights Due to the adjustment of planting structure, the comparison of planting economic benefits and other reasons, the planting area of n5c continues to decrease According to the national grain and oil information center, the national wheat planting area is 22.3 million hectares this year, down 5.11% over the previous year; the total output is expected to be 87.16 million tons, down 4.52% over the previous year However, with the increase of agricultural planting structure adjustment in recent years, the planting area of high-quality wheat is increasing year by year High quality wheat attracts the attention of the market for its high quality, and its superior price adds a new focus to the domestic wheat market, which plays a leading role in raising the overall wheat price level The contradiction between supply and demand of n5c has been improved, and the market price has been guaranteed Due to the lack of dry and little rain in the main winter wheat production areas of China in autumn and winter of 2002, coupled with the high cost of artificial irrigation, due to the price value-benefit ratio, farmers' insufficient investment in drought resistance and poor moisture content, the phenomenon of lack of seedling and ridge cutting and insufficient tillering is common in wheat, and the seedling situation is relatively weak It is predicted that the winter wheat output will be further reduced in 2003, and the pattern of oversupply of wheat market will be improved The improvement of the supply and demand pattern will help to strengthen the upward basis of the market and guarantee the upward price of the market At present, the war in Iraq is still ongoing, and the impact of the war on international wheat prices is still difficult to estimate However, the recent sharp rise in spot wheat export prices in the United States has led to a slight rebound in wheat prices in Canada and Australia Recently, the spot supply of international wheat is unstable, and the supply capacity of Ukraine and other countries is declining, which also leads to the rise of wheat prices Due to the rapid decline of US wheat spot price in the early stage, the recent rise of US wheat futures prices led to a strong rebound in spot prices As of early April, the US Gulf soft red winter wheat FOB price was $124 / ton, up $7 from the end of last month, and the US Northwest Coast soft white wheat FOB price was $118 / ton, up $3 from last week The rise of wheat prices in the United States is conducive to the rise of international wheat export prices and has a positive effect on the market The demand for high-quality wheat of n5c flour enterprises will increase, and the market power will increase after the Spring Festival of n5c The domestic flour market will enter into the seasonal off-season of consumption, and the market demand will not be prosperous However, this kind of prosperity is only limited to the weak purchase of common wheat by flour enterprises, and another vigorous market pattern is quietly forming In recent years, with the improvement of per capita living standard in China, people's demand for high-quality flour is becoming more and more popular Although the purchase price of common wheat is relatively low, which helps enterprises to reduce production costs, the low market demand can not make it show its advantages On the contrary, although the purchase price cost of high-quality wheat is high, its good sales prospects, and the market performance of high-quality and high price have to make it Flour processing enterprises treat high-quality wheat differently, and the market demand for high-quality wheat is gradually increasing In the later stage, with the arrival of seasonal consumption peak, flour enterprises will increase purchasing power and market promotion power The import and export situation of n5c is expected to be optimistic, and the market wait-and-see mentality is expected to reduce n5c Last year was the first year of China's accession to the WTO After China's accession to the WTO, China's wheat import quota promised was 8.468 million tons, but last year's Wheat Import in China was less than 1 million tons In the case of no significant increase in the number of imports, the number of wheat exports in China increased significantly At the beginning of 2003, China's wheat export situation continued to be optimistic It is expected that the export volume of novel wheat in 2003 will maintain a steady and rising momentum However, due to the current unstable quality of high-quality wheat in China, the international wheat price is expected to fall, and the export volume is difficult to increase substantially With the adjustment of planting structure, the supply of high-quality wheat in China will increase, and the price of high-quality wheat in the world will be at a high level The domestic wheat companies may give priority to the domestic high-quality wheat, which will restrain the increase of imported wheat Affected by the steady increase of export quantity and the difficulty of increasing import quantity, the original waiting wheat enterprises are expected to change their original intention and play a positive role in stimulating the increase of market demand and reducing market pressure N5c aged grain continued to be auctioned, market pressure increased, n5c wheat began to enter the consumption off-season after the Spring Festival, and the national wheat price was stable The average price of third-class white wheat is 1240 yuan / ton Among them, the price of Yumai 34 in Yanjin, Henan Province is 1230 yuan / ton, the price of quality 8901 is 1340 yuan / ton, and the price of Youmai 8901 in Huachang, Shanghai is 1290 yuan / ton Although slightly up, but not much At the same time of the stable spot price of wheat, the rotation of central grain reserve was launched in 2003 Recently, the wheat reserve is going out of the warehouse With the winter wheat harvest period getting closer and closer, the main production areas to better ensure the interests of farmers, complete the task of wheat acquisition, and speed up the pace of wheat sales and storage At the same time, in order to ensure the quality of inventory, the sales area has increased the intensity of rotation At the beginning of April, 100000 tons of wheat and 350000 tons of wheat were sold in Beijing and Shaanxi And from the 80000 ton wheat auction held in Tianjin in March, it was learned that the price of more than 50000 tons of imported aged wheat was only 1017 yuan / ton, which was lower than the price of domestic aged wheat at that time The auction of stale grain will put pressure on the wheat spot market in the later stage The price of n5c CBOT wheat keeps falling, which is a resistance to domestic wheat price From the historical data, it can be seen that since the rise of May 2002, wheat futures began to fall after reaching a high of 439 cents on September 9 last year Up to now, it has dropped to 289 cents, almost 100% of the increase The pullback marks the beginning of a decline in global wheat prices after a wave of big rises The CNF price of wheat exported by the United States to China has been declining At present, the price of soft winter wheat, hard spring wheat and hard winter wheat has decreased from 172 dollars / ton, 204 dollars / ton and 184 dollars / ton at the end of last month to 154 dollars / ton, 200 dollars / ton and 172 dollars / ton at present Recently, the price of wheat sold by the United States to South Korea is 3% - 9% lower than that in early March At present, most of China's imported wheat is high-quality wheat, and the continuous decline of import quotation has a great pressure on the price of domestic high-quality wheat From the perspective of n5c, the development of domestic wheat market is in the contradiction between the positive and the negative, and there are many factors influencing the trend of wheat price Through in-depth analysis, aging grain auction, CBOT After all, the inhibition effect of factors such as wheat price drop on the market is limited, and it is difficult to dominate the main tone of market development in the short term, while the factors that promote the wheat market are still monopolized, and the market trend of stable operation will be consolidated N5C
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