Analysis of Domestic Soybean Market Situation

Introduction: at present, the price of domestic soybean market has slightly stabilized after a short period of high shock consolidation, but it is still in a strong state As of April 2, the purchase price of soybean in Northeast China is still at a high level, among which the average purchase price of medium-sized soybean in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province is 2420-2450 yuan / ton; the average purchase price of medium-sized soybean in Siping, Jilin Province is 2480-2490 yuan / ton, basically the same as the previous period; the port distribution price of imported soybean has risen, with a drop of 10-20 yuan / ton In the later stage, influenced by many factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans, the centralized listing of cheap soybeans in South America and the US Iraq war, where will the domestic soybean market go? The author believes that soybean prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, and the domestic soybean market pressure will gradually appear in the medium and long term The specific analysis is as follows: 6em 1 This year, farmers' planting intention is generally improved, and soybean planting area is significantly increased 6em soybean prices soared last year, bringing huge profits to farmers This year, farmers' planting intention has generally increased According to the survey results of 668 basic point counties of agricultural statistical survey conducted by the Ministry of agriculture, soybean area will increase significantly, with an increase of about 6% Recently, the agricultural survey team of the National Bureau of statistics and the national grain and Oil Information Center have also made preliminary predictions on the soybean planting area in 2003 Although the Department figures vary with different prediction methods, the overall trend growth has become an indisputable fact Among them, the agricultural survey team of the Bureau of statistics has predicted that the soybean planting area in 2003 was about 12989 1000 ha, an increase of 3.6% over the previous year, including 9226000 ha of soybean sown area, an increase of 5.8% over the previous year; the national grain and Oil Information Center predicted that in 2003, the national soybean sown area was 9.9 million ha, an increase of 4.5% over the previous year At the same time, according to the planting intention of the major producing provinces, Heilongjiang Province, the main producing area, will continue to expand soybean planting area this year, which is expected to be 3.35 million hectares, an increase of 8% over the previous year; Jilin Province, the main producing area, will implement the corn soybean rotation plan, with a rapid growth of soybean area, which is expected to increase by 41.3% over the previous year The increase of domestic soybean planting area will guarantee the increase of domestic soybean supply to a certain extent 6em 2 The squeezing profit of oil plants has declined, and the strong domestic soybean demand still needs time 6em at present, the price of domestic soybeans is at a high level At the same time, from the perspective of the price of imported soybeans, the price of soybeans arriving in the United States is basically more than 2500 yuan / ton, and the production cost converted into soybean meal is 1950-2000 yuan/ About tons, the profits of domestic oil production enterprises have been greatly compressed, most of the oil plants have been in a loss position, in addition to the market's bearish psychology on the future soybean market, some oil plants have stopped production or limited production for the sake of profit, and they are more cautious about soybean procurement, most of them are still in a wait-and-see state, waiting for the arrival of cheap South American soybeans in the future The decrease of the squeezing profit of the oil factory hinders the expansion of the domestic soybean market demand 6em 3 The trend of related products is weak, forming resistance to the rise of soybean price The domestic soybean meal price of 6em started to rise obviously from the middle of March So far, with the increase of soybean supply, the soybean meal price has begun to show signs of weakening In the later period, with the gradual approaching of imported Brazilian soybean, it is inevitable that the domestic soybean meal price will fall gradually In addition, the breeding industry is still in a weak state, and the feed industry has not yet fully entered the recovery period, so that the demand for soybean meal is reduced and the price is low; on the other hand, although the soybean oil price is generally stable at present, due to the rich harvest of rapeseed and the large listing of rapeseed oil, the supply pressure of the oil market is increased, and the subsequent market correspondingly promotes the domestic soybean oil price from stable to falling Domestic soybean oil, soybean meal prices also weakened the demand for raw soybeans, soybean prices continue to rise a certain resistance 6em 4 The import of soybeans increased in succession, which depressed the price of domestic soybeans 6em at present, the quantity of soybean imported from China is considerable According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported about 2.02 million tons of soybeans from January to February, up 91% year on year At the same time, according to relevant data, in March, 39 ships of soybeans were imported from various ports, with a volume of about 2232900 tons, far exceeding the previous expectation The inventory of soybeans imported from various places was about 1959200 tons, with a significant increase in the inventory It is estimated that the arrival volume of imported soybeans in April will be between 1.6-1.7 million tons In May, South American soybeans will be listed in batches gradually, which will bring intangible pressure to the domestic soybean market In addition, China's Ministry of agriculture has already launched on March 18 Japan officially issued the first batch of Brazilian soybean safety certificates to the importers, which cleared the barriers for the import of soybeans, but also cleared the concerns of traders Under the attraction of high domestic prices, it is expected that the arrival of a large number of cheap South American soybeans will form an import peak, so as to increase the supply of China's soybean market, which will also depress the domestic soybean price in the later period 6em 5 Soybean production in South America increased, with strong export 6em according to the latest report of the U.S Department of agriculture in March, the soybean output of South America in 2002 / 03 is expected to reach 91 million tons, nearly 17 million tons higher than that of the U.S at the same time, Brazil's soybean export speed is very fast, 435100 tons of soybean were exported from January to February, 223900 tons in the same period last year, an increase of nearly 75%, 3 A few weeks after the start of soybean harvest, the continuous listing of new season soybeans led to a surge in exports, which reached 1.31 million tons, an increase of 111% over the same period last year, while China was the largest buyer of Brazil's soybeans in 2002 At the same time, it is reported that the first batch of South American soybeans will arrive at Chinese ports in mid April, and the relatively low price of South American soybeans will also impact the domestic import soybean market 6em 6 The outbreak of the US Iraq war 6em the recent US Iraq war and the dramatic changes in oil prices and US dollar prices show that there are still large uncertainties in this war, which also provides the industry with imagination space Many uncertain factors caused by the war will also have an impact on the later trend of soybean prices in China Based on the above analysis, although there are many favorable factors for the strong price in the domestic soybean market at present, the factors that cause the soybean price to fall are still dominant in the long run In the later stage, under the situation of weak demand, with the successive arrival of imported soybeans and the continuous increase of market supply, domestic soybeans will still face the pressure of falling   6EM   6EM