Corn market outlook analysis

Introduction: since May, the price of corn in the whole country has generally increased in both production and sales areas By the first ten days of June, the price of corn was 50-60 yuan higher than that at the end of April and the beginning of May The ex warehouse price of the production area was about 1100 yuan / ton, the closing price of Dalian port was about 1200 yuan, and Qinhuangdao was between 1180-1190 yuan This paper analyzes the main reasons for the recent increase of corn price in the main production areas of Northeast China: first, the drought in the main production areas of Northeast China is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell In a normal year, there will be a peak of grain sales before and after the spring sowing This year, due to the severe drought for the second consecutive year, on the one hand, some farmers have greatly reduced their grain reserves, and only a little grain is reserved for their own use On the other hand, the farmers who have grain are also waiting for a price to sell for a good price The enthusiasm of farmers is not high Second, the grain enterprises in the production area are reluctant to sell due to the reduction of their inventory and the heavy psychological expectation of rising grain prices Farmers are reluctant to sell, the purchase volume of grain enterprises is sharply reduced, and the enthusiasm of grain ex warehouse is not high Third, it is pulled by the export of corn It is reported that the FOB price of exported corn has reached 1250-1270 yuan recently Fourth, government intervention in some of the hardest hit areas must first meet the supply of disaster relief food before it can be sold to the market Chaoyang City, Liaoning Province, has distributed two batches of 11000 tons of disaster relief corn to farmers There are two reasons for the increase of corn price in the selling area besides the rising factors in the producing area First, feed demand turned strong in May and June, and feed enterprises began to increase corn purchase Second, since April 1, the railway has increased the freight rate and increased the cost of corn It is an indisputable fact that the price of corn keeps rising in the next two or three months However, the author thinks that the ex warehouse price of the production area will reach about 1180-1200 yuan, while the sales area will rise to about 1400 yuan This is because: first, the drought in the main corn producing areas of Northeast China is serious, and the reduction of autumn grain production has become a foregone conclusion In the first ten days of May, statistics from the Agricultural Department of Jilin Province showed that 25.5 million mu of corn had been planted in the whole province, 100.3% of the plan had been completed, and the planting area was 6% less than that of last year By the end of May, due to the aggravation of the drought, some plots had to destroy their seeds, and the sown area of corn would be reduced by 8-10% In Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, sowing plans have not been completed at all Although after June 10, most parts of Northeast China experienced rainfall process and the drought was alleviated, but the corn sowing date has passed, there are still a large number of corn not seeded, so we have to change to other crops with short growth period The reduction of corn planting area and the serious drought of sown corn will inevitably lead to the decrease of total corn output after autumn this year, which will change the supply-demand relationship of corn from the basic balance of total supply and demand to the tight supply, and the price will inevitably rise At the same time, it also increased people's psychological expectation of corn price rise, and the psychology of reluctant to sell is serious 2 Export factors China exported 10 million tons of corn in 2000 and 2.54 million tons of corn in the first four months of 2001, which is lower than the same period, but still maintained the high level of the previous year Recently, the state has increased subsidies for corn export, obviously supporting the continued large-scale export of corn in the second half of the year It is reported that the export target of 300000 tons of corn in Liaoning Province has recently come down The closing price of the port is US $95-97 With the state subsidy, the closing price will reach 1250-1270 yuan It is at this price point that grain enterprises are still not motivated to leave the warehouse, and the supply of organized goods is still very slow 3 The average price of existing inventory is relatively high The current stock of corn in Northeast China is mostly corn in 1998, and the protection price in 1998 is relatively high In addition to the storage fee and bank interest for three years, the average stock price is 1150-1160 yuan / ton, because corn is bullish all the way Only when the market price is higher than this price and there is a certain profit, can grain enterprises leave the warehouse, that is to say, only when it reaches 1200 yuan/ When tons, the market supply of corn will increase 4 The demand turns strong According to previous experience, in July and August of each year, the consumption of feed is at its peak At this time, the corn in North China and South China has been exhausted To continue production and consumption, it is necessary to purchase corn in the north With the natural growth of consumption demand, the demand will increase in the next two or three months To sum up, in the next two or three months, the price of corn will rise all the way, and finally it will reach or flush the price of 1200 yuan / ton out of the bankruptcy area.