Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (8.1-8.5)

Macro: This week's domestic and foreign heavy news is mixed, market sentiment has not changed much, but the dollar index is strong, suppressing international commodity prices
to a certain extent.
At present, the trend of copper prices is still dominated by market macro expectations, but with the dust of the Bank of England meeting, other central banks have not made major moves in the near future, the Federal Reserve, Europe and other central bank meetings are more than next month, so in the next period of time, the macro environment may be stable, copper prices have a small chance of unilateral market
.

Market: Market supply has gradually tightened this week, mainly reflected in the shortage of good copper and flat water copper supply, as traders stockpile goods and hold goods to rise to push up spot
premiums.
This week, the supply side is tight and the performance of spot consumption is still weak, so the market has formed a pattern of supply and demand
.
Domestic smelters ship a small amount, import customs declaration is less, the current market imports of copper is mainly based on trader inventory, domestic brands are Daye, Tongling and so on
.
On the last trading day of the week, the market supply was slightly loosened, smelters rarely shipped, traders mainly shipped, hoarded good copper and flat water copper had a small outflow, the premium fell slightly, downstream demand was sluggish, and a small amount of on-demand purchases were made when copper prices fell, but the overall performance was weak
.

In terms of stocks: as of August 5, LME copper stocks reported 206,650 tons, down 2,800 tons or 1.
34% from last Friday, close to the low set on July 5 this year, but higher than the average inventory value of 190,000 tons during the year; At the same time, as of August 5, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 165239 tons, down 229 tons from last week, close to the year's low of 155235 tons, and far below the average inventory of 256613 tons
during the year.
Recently, global copper inventories have fallen sharply, the degree of copper surplus has been reduced, if the supply and demand pattern of the future market continues to improve, copper prices will receive some support, if the supply and demand side does not improve substantially, the future market will still face downward risks
.

Future market analysis: Overall, the current global economic performance is uneven, the non-ferrous fundamentals have not further improved, and the copper price trend shows off-season characteristics
.
However, although non-ferrous metals are difficult to have a strong impulse and opportunity to break through the previous high, but also do not have the basis for this sharp turn, the future copper trend is expected to be mainly wide volatility, it is recommended to wait and see for
the time being.
Watch China's economic data and oil prices next week, and copper prices are expected to remain weak and volatile
.