Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (10.31-11.4)

Macro: Abroad, the dollar began a round of declines this week, the US election showed unexpected variables, the United States released October ADP "small non-farm" data less than expected, while the British High Court ruled that "Brexit" requires parliamentary consent, the pound rose to a new one-month high, making the dollar passively lower, the dollar plunged to 97.
041, a weekly decline of 1.
6%.

Domestically, China's official manufacturing and Caixin manufacturing PMI picked up together in October, the overall economy continued to stabilize in October, boosting market sentiment, the release of bullish energy gaining momentum, ferrous steel and coal continued to detonate the market, and non-ferrous metals rose step by step
.

Market: The market supply has always been tight this week, although there is a slight supplement of imported copper, but the supply is small, after all, the Shanghai price comparison is not very conducive to imports, and most of the imported copper is still in transit
.
In addition, smelters basically do not ship, and some large traders have received goods to build warehouses to hold the price of goods, but with the continuous rise of copper prices, the premium remains high, coupled with the off-season shadow, downstream manufacturers continue to wait and see, the willingness to purchase is not strong
.
On the last trading day of the week, the market supply was flat, and the supply was still dominated by domestic brands, but although the arrival of imported copper in Hong Kong supplemented the supply of domestic spot copper, the traders' receipt price action is still continuing, and copper prices still have momentum
to continue to rise.
Downstream manufacturers are affected by the off-season and the sales situation is worrying, their orders are poor and the operating rate is declining, coupled with high prices, most manufacturers maintain a wait-and-see attitude, only a small amount of on-demand procurement
.

Stocks: As of November 4, LME copper stocks reported 305,000 tons, a sharp weekly decrease of 21,400 tons, a sharp decrease for the second consecutive week, but still higher than the average inventory of 217,000 tons during the year, and the high point of inventory during the year was 379175 tons; as of November 4, the previous period of Shanghai copper stocks reported 97,839 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,709 tons, far lower than the average inventory of 229,000 tons during the year, indicating that the pressure on domestic inventories is much weaker than that of foreign countries
。 At present, domestic copper explicit stocks have been reduced to a relatively low level during the year, but the market is worried that the supply and demand fundamentals have not undergone a fundamental reversal, and explicit stocks may still turn from a downward trend to an upward trend, and if this risk breaks out, the pressure of rising inventories will still affect the trend
of copper prices.

Aftermarket analysis: Recently, commodity prices in the domestic market have soared again, especially black prices, leading the market bulls' popularity and boosting the copper market
.
In the market, spot copper supply this week is still tight, in addition to the slow entry of imported copper, downstream procurement demand is weak, and affected by the off-season, terminal consumer demand has fallen
sharply.
At present, the divergence between copper prices and fundamentals is expanding, and the market center of gravity is more likely to return to fundamentals at the end of the year, and it is expected that copper prices will be dominated by short-term shocks, and long-term trends still need to pay attention to market demand
.