Analysis of China's soybean market in 2001 and prospects for 2002

Introduction: 1 Analysis of the supply and demand situation of China's soybean market (1) in recent years, China's soybean production is stagnant In the past 50 years since the founding of the people's Republic of China, soybean production has experienced a long and tortuous development process After 1995, it has again entered a state of hesitation From 1995 to 1996, soybean production declined for two consecutive years From 1998 to 1999, natural disasters reduced soybean production In 2000, although affected by the macro-control policy, the soybean planting area in China expanded, but affected by the drought, the per unit yield decreased significantly, and the yield only recovered to 15.41 million tons Analyzing the development history of soybean production in China, we can see that there are two main characteristics: first, although the per unit yield of soybean has increased by 1.7 times, compared with other domestic food crops, the increase of per unit yield of soybean in China is far lower than that of corn, wheat, rice and other food crops, and the improvement of comprehensive production capacity is relatively slow; second, although the total output has increased from 5 million tons to 15 million tons However, due to the faster growth of demand, the import has increased sharply (2) in 2001, both the sown area and the yield of soybean decreased In 2001, the sown area of soybean decreased to about 9.035 million hectares, 2.9% lower than that in 2000 There are two main reasons for the decrease of soybean sown area in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia: first, the price relationship between soybean and corn and cotton has changed Generally speaking, it is more reasonable to keep the price ratio of corn to soybean above 1:2.5 In March 2001, the price ratio of corn to soybean in the main production area decreased to 1:1.87 According to the soybean production level and production cost in China, the price of soybean is obviously low Secondly, it is affected by the dry weather in the North during spring sowing Based on the investigation of agricultural sown area and meteorological conditions in the main soybean producing areas in China, it is estimated that the average yield per unit area of soybean in 2001 will be 1660 kg / ha, a slight increase over 2000, and the yield of soybean will be about 15 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% over the previous year (3) China's soybean import and export trade 1 The history and current situation of China's soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil import and export In 1996, China changed from a net exporter of soybean and soybean meal to a net importer Soybean imports are increasing year by year, and exports are decreasing year by year In 1995, China's soybean import volume was only 300000 tons From 1996 to 2000, the annual import volume was 111, 279, 319, 432 and 10.42 million tons in turn In just five years, China has become the largest soybean import country in the world In 2000, China's soybean imports accounted for about 3 / 4 of China's soybean output From January to November 2001, China imported 12.8 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 32% over the same period last year On June 6 this year, after the state issued the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, China's soybean import source countries have been transferred From June to July, the number of soybeans imported from the United States decreased sharply From August to September, the import volume from the United States recorded zero for two consecutive months From October to November, the imports from the United States were 57000 tons and 270000 tons respectively Part of the import market share of the United States began to shift to Argentina and Brazil At present, Argentina has surpassed the United States as the largest source of soybean imports in China, accounting for 38% of the total soybean imports, the United States for 37%, and Brazil for the third place, accounting for 24% China's soybean export volume is not large, generally around 200000 tons From January to November 2001, China's soybean export volume was 194000 tons, down 2.4% from the same period last year About 73% of exported soybeans are from Heilongjiang, 12% from Jilin and 9% from Liaoning 65% of them are exported to Japan, 21% to South Korea and 5% to Vietnam At present, compared with American soybeans, China's soybeans are non transgenic products with high protein content, although the production cost is higher and the oil yield is lower With the pursuit of natural organic food and the understanding of the nutritional and medical value of soybean, the status of non transgenic soybean in China will inevitably improve, and its edible value will inevitably increase According to relevant reports, South Korea will import 300000 tons of non GMO soybeans from China in 2002 It can be predicted that China's soybeans still have export potential China's soybean meal import and export trade is greatly affected by the value-added tax policy From 1996 to 1998, in order to protect the development of domestic breeding industry and ensure the supply of feed, the import of soybean meal was exempted from value-added tax for three consecutive years, and the import volume of soybean meal increased rapidly, from 11000 tons in 1995 to 188, 347 and 3730000 tons year by year However, after the increase of VAT on soybean meal import in March 1999, the soybean meal import volume decreased sharply, but it was still a net importer From January to November 2001, China imported 53000 tons of soybean meal, a decrease of 430000 tons over the same period of last year, of which 68% came from India and 28% from Argentina; 200000 tons were exported, an increase of 178000 tons over the same period of last year, 85% of which were exported to Japan, 8% to South Korea and North Korea, 4% to Malaysia, and then China became a net exporter from a net importer of soybean meal China has always been a net importer of soybean oil After the opening of oil market in 1993, the domestic oil supply was insufficient, the price rose sharply, and the imported soybean increased rapidly In 1993, China's soybean oil import volume was only 76000 tons, and from 1994 to 1997, it was over 1 million tons However, due to smuggled imports, the actual import volume is more than the customs statistics, which leads to a sharp drop in the domestic soybean oil market price After the state crackdown on smuggling in the second half of 1998, soybean oil imports decreased significantly From January to November 2001, China imported 63000 tons of soybean oil, 69% of which came from Argentina and 18% from the United States It exports 51000 tons of soybean oil, 98% of which is exported to Hong Kong 2 Reasons for the strong increase of soybean import in China Since 1996, there are three internal reasons for the fundamental change of China's soybean import and export pattern: first, the rapid expansion of domestic demand, including the development of animal husbandry in the early 1990s, the demand pull of soybean meal for feed and the rapid expansion of oil processing capacity after the opening of oil market in 1993; second, China's soybean production decreased for two consecutive years from 1995 to 1996, from 16 million tons in 1994 To 13.5 million tons and 13.22 million tons; in addition, China's single and low tariff policy of 3% on soybeans has opened a convenient door for importing soybeans There are two main external factors: one is the rapid development of soybean production in the world by transgenic technology; the other is the subsidy policy of the United States to soybean, which increases the export competitiveness of American soybean There are three direct reasons for the sharp increase of soybean imports in 1999-2001: first, the state resumed the collection of 13% value-added tax on soybean meal imports in March 1999; second, the state cracked down on smuggling imports in the second half of 1998; third, the state reduced the distribution of soybean oil quotas in recent years, resulting in the sudden decrease of soybean meal and soybean oil imports, and the rapid increase of soybean raw material imports In fact, if we convert the imported soybean meal and soybean oil into soybeans, in fact, a large number of imported soybeans in China started from 1994 In that year, the actual import of soybeans reached 5.37 million tons From 1995 to 1999, the annual import of soybeans in China was about 7.6-9 million tons In 2000, it reached 12 million tons From January to November 2001, it reached 12.87 million tons (4) at present, there are seven main problems in the development of soybean market in China 1 The total supply exceeds the demand Although with the continuous increase of population and the rapid development of economy, the increasing trend of domestic soybean demand will not change greatly, but in recent years, the growth rate of import volume is faster than the growth rate of demand, resulting in the pattern of total supply exceeding demand in domestic soybean market, and the inventory has reached the highest record in history According to the analysis of the balance sheet established by us, it is estimated that the current stock of imported soybeans is more than 2 million tons, and it is expected that the stock of soybeans in 2000 / 2001 will reach a record high 2 There are obvious regional differences in the imbalance of supply and demand: the supply of major provinces exceeds the demand, while the main land for sale depends on imports Because the large oil mills in the coastal areas of the South generally use imported soybeans as raw materials, leading to the unsalable soybeans in the major provinces of Northeast China, which has a great inventory pressure, and the problem of "it is difficult for farmers to sell soybeans" 3 The domestic market price keeps falling, and the international market price has exceeded or kept at the same level with the domestic soybean market price In recent years, the domestic soybean market price keeps falling due to the impact of imported soybeans The soybean meal market price trend is basically the same as the soybean price trend, and the soybean oil price has also kept falling in recent two years In 2001, it has been at a low level At present, China's soybean market has been in line with the international market, and the international market price has exceeded or remained the same as the domestic soybean market price Based on the closing price of soybeans of CBOT on November 2 in January, 1965 yuan / ton is the import cost price of soybeans in the United States calculated by the 3% import tariff At present, the spot price of soybeans in Dalian is 1820-1900 yuan / ton Obviously, the import price is higher than the domestic market price 4 Serious impact of excessive import on soybean market The direct results of excessive import of soybean are as follows: first, under the condition that the cost of domestic soybean is difficult to reduce, the price is forced to reduce, and the employment and income of farmers are inevitably affected; second, the main production area soybean loses the market of Southern sales area, so it is difficult to export, and the impact on Farmers' income is deepened; third, the storage cost of the country is increased; fourth, under the condition that northeast soybean is overstocked, I China will also spend a lot of foreign exchange to buy imported soybeans In this way, a vicious circle of "import - overstock - price decline - soybean farmers' income decrease - continue to overstock - a large number of imports" is formed 5 The transportation bottleneck makes the Northeast soybean lose the price advantage Because the large-scale oil mills are generally concentrated in the coastal areas of South China, the production scale is relatively large, and the daily processing capacity is generally more than 1200 tons, some of which can reach 5000 tons Because of the large throughput and high requirements for transportation capacity, general railway and road transportation can not guarantee the production requirements of enterprises Even by sea, China's bulk carriers can not be compared with the tonnage of ocean going freighters 6 The transaction mode is backward Generally, the import soybean manufacturers can choose the L / C transaction mode, and the cost of capital is lower However, the domestic trade often encounters the business reputation problems of the buyer and the seller, triangle debt disputes and various non transaction costs, which are much larger than the import business Therefore, even under the same price conditions, coupled with quality differences, southern manufacturers still tend to buy imported soybeans 7 Compared with the world's major producers, China's soybean production capacity is not high, its resources and economic advantages have not been fully exploited, and there is a big gap with the United States and other major producers in soybean science and technology, production and management, trade policies, product varieties and quality First, it shows low yield, low quality and high cost The main reason is that the investment in soybean industry is seriously insufficient for a long time, the infrastructure is poor, the means is backward, the high-quality and special soybean seeds cannot keep up, the mechanization level is low, the cultivation and cultivation methods are backward, and the ratio of successive crops is significant Second, the level of purchase and sale, management service and processing of soybean is poor The results show that there is no high-quality and good price for the mixed varieties, mixed income, mixed storage and mixed marketing Thirdly, according to the national support, the total cost of soybean per mu in the United States was 13.6% and 66.9% higher than that in China in 1997 and 1999, respectively In 1999, the net income of tax paid per mu was even - 97 yuan However, the soybean production in the United States has continued to develop and a large number of exports have been made It is very important that the U.S government The government has a lot of subsidies However, the tax burden per mu of soybean in China is generally higher than that in the United States by nearly 40% World soybean production and trade situation (I) rapid development of world soybean production