Analysis of China's Agricultural Supply and Demand Situation in December 2020 (CASDE-No.54)

Corn: This month's forecast for China's corn supply and demand for 2020/21 is in the same way as the previous month.
The current new season corn sales progress faster than the same period last year, it is expected that the late Northeast region high temperature, less precipitation, conducive to the corn market purchase and sale, effective supply will continue to increase, prices are expected to level off.
Consumption, domestic pig, can breed sow storage column continued to resume growth, eggs and poultry, meat and poultry storage column is still high, feeding consumption demand to maintain a growth trend, taking into account the substantial increase in imports of corn substitutes, corn feed consumption formed a clear replacement, corn overall consumption is basically stable.
the international market, due to the decline in global corn end-of-term inventory, prices are expected to rise, the average price of imported corn after land tax this year is expected to be 1900-2100 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan from last month's forecast range.
: This month's forecast for China's soybean supply and demand for 2020/21 is in the same way as the previous month.
Domestic side, november the national soybean harvest completed, strong market demand but farmers regret to sell sentiment is heavy, the market circulation of soybeans appeared in a phased supply situation, taking into account the soybean production and high quality, later with farmers soybean sales progress accelerated, prices are expected to stabilize;
: 2020/21 cotton picking is basically completed.
, according to China Cotton Network monitoring, as of the end of November, the country's new cotton sales progress of 95.2%, higher than the same period last year, processing and sales are progressing smoothly.
forecast this month that cotton production, imports, exports and consumption in 2020/21 would remain unchanged from the previous month's forecast, with end-of-term inventories still at 7.16 million tonnes.
as the domestic economy continues to stabilize and the textile industry continues to pick up trend, cotton prices in the forecast range of 13,000-15,000 yuan per ton shock upward.
Internationally, cotton production in the United States and Pakistan declined, but given that global cotton stocks remain high and vaccine delivery enters a critical period, the economic situation remains uncertain, with international cotton prices remaining in the forecast range of 65-80 cents per pound.
edible vegetable oil: This month forecast that China will produce 27.65 million tons of edible plants in 2020/21, in keeping with last month's forecast.
, most of the rape in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the eastern part of southwest China is in the fifth real leaf to the transplanted plant.
affected by the low temperature oligarchy in the early period, the growth trend of rape in most producing areas is generally weak.
but the recent increase in precipitation is good for the improvement of the western region of Sichuan Basin and for the later growth of rapeseed.
as of December 2, the proportion of first- and second-class seedlings in the country was 15% and 82%, respectively, with one seedling up 1 percentage point from last week and the second-class seedlings down 1 percentage point from last week.
this month will not adjust the production of rape in 2020/21.
2020/21, the global oilseed, edible vegetable oil inventory consumption ratio decreased, will continue to support the later international edible vegetable oil prices remain high, this month will not adjust the domestic edible vegetable oil price range.
Sugar: According to the China Sugar Industry Association statistics, as of the end of November, the northern sugar beet plant has two harvest, this year has accumulated 1.1132 million tons of sugar production, a decrease of 159.4 million tons from the same period last year, of which, sugar cane sugar decreased by 1595 million tons, sugar beet sugar production is basically normal.
recent rainfall in most cane areas, day and night temperature difference is small, is not conducive to sugar cane sugar accumulation and transformation, the later need to pay attention to the impact of the weather on sugar production.
present, in the low season of traditional sugar consumption, sugar sales slow down, while the supply of new sugar is increasing, syrup imports remain high, sugar imports remain high, domestic sugar supply is adequate.
this month to 3.9m tonnes, an increase of 400,000 tonnes from the previous month.
same time, the international sugar price range was adjusted to 12 cents per pound - 15 cents per pound, the upper and lower limits were increased by 2 cents per pound.
The main basis is: due to adverse weather conditions, Thailand, the European Union region and Russia and other sugar-producing countries (regions) sugar production forecast downwards, the news that the new crown vaccine will be listed in a number of conducive to the stability of sugar consumption, energy prices stabilized, the weakening of the dollar to support the market.
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