Analysis of beef and mutton production and market situation in the first three quarters of this year

Introduction: Abstract: compared with the same period of last year, the first three quarters of 2002 saw an increase in China's cattle and sheep storage, marketing and meat production; compared with the second quarter of this year, the price of domestic cattle and sheep meat rose in the third quarter, which was higher than the same period of last year In the international market, beef prices showed signs of recovery in the third quarter, and mutton prices continued to remain high Compared with the same period last year, in the third quarter of this year, China's beef export decreased and import increased; mutton import and export increased It is predicted that the output of beef and mutton will increase slightly in the fourth quarter, and the price of beef and mutton will continue to rise In the short term, the price of beef in the international market may continue to fluctuate or even decline, but the recovery momentum cannot be ignored; mutton prices continue to rise China's beef exports are still not optimistic, and mutton exports need to be further improved 1 Compared with the same period last year, the first three quarters of China's cattle and sheep storage, marketing and meat production increased by 132.3966 million cattle at the end of the third quarter of 2002, 2.14% higher than the same period last year, 1.47% higher than the same period of 2000, 5.03% and 2.49% higher than the end of the first and second quarters respectively In the first three quarters, 32.3483 million cattle were sold, an increase of 4.47% over the same period last year There are ten provinces and regions with more than one million heads, namely Henan Province (5.075 million heads), Hebei Province (4.40408 million heads), Shandong Province (3.4797 million heads), Jilin Province (2.5999 million heads), Anhui Province (1.7301 million heads), Hunan Province (1.4936 million heads), Sichuan Province (1.4671 million heads), Heilongjiang Province (1.443 million heads), Liaoning Province (1.3984 million heads) and Xinjiang province (1.2278 million heads) ）The number of cattle in ten provinces accounted for 74.05% of the total number of cattle in China in the same period In the first three quarters, beef production was 4.2978 million tons, an increase of 6.09% over the same period last year There are seven provinces and regions that produce more than 200000 tons of beef Among them, Henan Province has 652300 tons, Hebei Province has 605100 tons, Shandong Province has 546500 tons, Jilin Province has 327800 tons, Anhui Province has 241300 tons, Liaoning Province has 221500 tons, Heilongjiang Province has 215700 tons, and the beef output of seven provinces accounts for 65.39% of the total beef output of the country in the same period At the end of the third quarter, the number of sheep on hand reached 336.3625 million, an increase of 4.71% over the same period last year and 6.28% over 2000 In the first three quarters, China has listed 169995900 sheep, an increase of 12.50% over the same period last year The top seven provinces were Shandong Province (28.1441 million), Henan Province (25.6374 million), Xinjiang province (17.3569 million), Hebei Province (16.7575 million), Jiangsu Province (12.8457 million), Inner Mongolia province (12.8145 million) and Sichuan Province (9.4644 million), which accounted for 72.37% of the total number of sheep in the same period In the first three quarters, China's mutton output was 2.2696 million tons, an increase of 7.78% over the same period last year There are seven provinces that produce more than 100000 tons of mutton, which are Shandong Province 306600 tons, Xinjiang 302900 tons, Henan Province 293900 tons, Hebei Province 230000 tons, Inner Mongolia 184500 tons, Sichuan Province 143100 tons and Jiangsu Province 129700 tons The mutton production of these seven provinces accounts for 70.09% of the total mutton production in China 2 The price of domestic beef continued to rise; the price of mutton first decreased by a small margin, and then recovered In the third quarter of 2002, the average retail price of boneless beef in China was 14.38 yuan / kg, 1.34% higher than that in the second quarter Among them, The retail price of boneless beef in 19 provinces in China showed an upward trend, with Shandong, Fujian, Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi provinces showing the largest increase, up 12.55%, 8.88%, 8.45%, 7.38% and 5.43% respectively; the retail price of beef in 8 provinces showed a downward trend, with Qinghai down 10.61%, Shaanxi down 7.90%, Inner Mongolia down 2.32%, Shanghai down 1.90% and Shanxi down 1.43% In Henan, Guizhou and Hebei provinces, the decline was relatively small (less than 1%), and the price of boneless beef in Guangdong Province was stable in the third quarter In the first three quarters of this year, the average retail price of boneless beef in China was 14.29 yuan / kg, 8.26% higher than the same period last year Source: in addition to the national animal husbandry and veterinary station, the average price of boneless beef in the main beef sales areas (including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian and Guangdong) in the third quarter was 16.65 yuan / kg, 4.19% higher than that in the second quarter The average price of boneless beef in the main beef producing areas (including Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, Anhui, Heilongjiang, Hunan and Sichuan) in the third quarter was 13.72 yuan / kg, 2.85% higher than that in the second quarter The price increase in beef sales area is larger than that in production area In the third quarter of 2002, the average retail price of mutton with bone in China was 15.91 yuan / kg, 1.27% higher than that in the second quarter Among them, the retail price of mutton with bone increased in 18 provinces (cities), of which the top five provinces were Hunan 12.73%, Jiangsu 8.96%, Shanxi 8.65%, Jiangxi 6.91%, Chongqing 5.69%; the retail price of mutton with bone decreased in 10 provinces, of which Qinghai and Shaanxi decreased the most, with 20.65% and 14.50% respectively Source: in the first three quarters of 2002, the average retail price of mutton with bone in China was 15.95 yuan / kg, up 4.32% over the same period last year In addition, the average price of mutton with bone in the main sales areas (including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian and Guangdong) in the third quarter was 19.07 yuan / kg, 12.91% higher than that in the second quarter In the third quarter, the average price of mutton with bone in the main producing areas (including Shandong, Xinjiang, Henan, Hebei, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Anhui and Hunan) was 14.34 yuan / kg, almost the same as that in the second quarter 3 The price changes of beef and mutton in the world market 1 The price of beef in the United States fell and mutton kept high Since July 2002, the prices of different types of beef in the United States have shown a downward trend Among them, the average price of selected beef (1-3550-700 pounds) is 110.69 US dollars / hundredweight Due to the large decline in the price in July, the price in the third quarter is generally low, 3.95% lower than the average price in the second quarter, 3.78% lower than the average price in the first half of the year The price of selected beef (1-3, The average price of 700-850 pounds) is 109.82 US dollars / hundredweight The same reason is that the price dropped significantly in July, resulting in the overall low price in the third quarter, 4.90% lower than the average price in the second quarter, and 4.07% lower than the average price in the first half of the year The other three types of beef prices are also declining, among which the average price of lean meat (1-3700-850 pounds) in the third quarter is US $103.30/hundredweight, down 4.11% from the second quarter, 5.52% lower than the first half of the year; the average price of boneless beef (90% fresh) in the third quarter is US $103.62/hundredweight, down 10.44% from the second quarter, down 13.52% from the first half of the year; the average price of imported boneless beef (90% frozen) in the third quarter The average price in the third quarter was US $105.32/hundredweight, down 2.84% from the second quarter and 6.06% from the first half of the year In the third quarter of 2002, the wholesale price of mutton in the United States changed a little, and kept the high level at the beginning of the quarter The average wholesale price of selected mutton (55-65 pounds) was 163.23 US dollars / hundredweight, 12.94% higher than that in the second quarter, 16.62% higher than that in the first half of the year 2 The price of beef in the European Union is relatively stable, and the price of mutton fluctuates greatly Source: in the third quarter, the price of beef in the European Union was relatively stable, with a slight upward trend Although the price of mutton continues to be higher than that of beef, it fluctuates greatly, rising first, then falling The highest price is 432.538 euros / 100 kg, and the lowest price is 369.684 euros / 100 kg, with a change of 14.53% IV compared with the same period last year, the export of cattle products decreased and the import increased In the third quarter, the export volume of China's cattle products was 7066 tons, down 24.49% compared with the same period last year Among them, the export volume of ordinary beef was 2933 tons, down 41.93% compared with the same period last year; the export volume of processed beef was 4073 tons, down 2.60% compared with the same period last year; the export volume of cattle offal was 45 tons, down 47.42% compared with the same period last year In addition, in the third quarter, the largest number of cattle products exported to Hong Kong was 3422 tons, accounting for 48.43% of the total export volume; Japan was the second, with 1146 tons, accounting for 16.22% of the total export volume; Russia was the third, with 563 tons, accounting for 7.97% of the total export volume In the first three quarters, China's cumulative export volume of cattle products was 18908 tons, down 33.09% from the same period last year Among them, the export volume of ordinary beef is 8809 tons, down 47.15% over the same period last year; the export volume of processed beef is 9958 tons, down 12.73% over the same period last year; the export volume of cattle offal is 98 tons, down 26.87% over the same period last year In addition, the cumulative export volume to Hong Kong in the first three quarters was 10587 tons, accounting for 55.99% of the total export volume Japan and Russia accounted for 9.49% and 8.17% of total exports respectively In the third quarter, China imported 11631 tons of cattle products, an increase of 65.31% over the same period last year Among them, the import volume of ordinary beef is 3245 tons, an increase of 264.21% over the same period last year; the import volume of processed beef is 148 tons, an increase of 95.53% over the same period last year; the import volume of beef offal is 8094 tons, an increase of 33.34% over the same period last year According to the distribution of import regions, the quantity of cattle products imported from the United States is 9091 tons, accounting for 78.16% of the total import quantity; Australia is the second, with 1084 tons, accounting for 9.3% of the total import quantity; Canada is the third, with 1046 tons, accounting for 8.99% of the total import quantity In the first three quarters, China's total imports of cattle products reached 38242 tons, an increase of 69.37% over the same period last year Among them, the import volume of ordinary beef is 7524 tons, an increase of 162.85% over the same period last year; the import volume of processed beef is 385 tons, an increase of 51.99% over the same period last year; the import volume of cattle offal is 30324 tons, an increase of 55.80% over the same period last year Among the imported cattle products, the cumulative import volume from the United States was 30865 tons, accounting for 80.71% of the total import volume in the first three quarters, followed by Canada and Australia, accounting for 10.08% and 6.48% of the total import volume in the first three quarters, respectively 5 Both the import and export of mutton increased compared with the same period last year In the third quarter, the export volume of China's mutton products was 456 tons, an increase of 279.83% compared with the same period last year Among them, the export volume of mutton was 455 tons, an increase of 284.53% over the same period last year In the third quarter, the largest number of sheep products exported to Hong Kong was 234 tons, accounting for 51.32% of the total exports; Jordan and the United Arab Emirates accounted for 18.86% and 11.18% of the total exports, respectively In the first three quarters, China's total export volume of sheep products was 1262 tons, an increase of 55.93% over the same period last year Among them, the export volume of mutton was 1258 tons, an increase of 56.30% over the same period last year The cumulative export volume to Hong Kong in the first three quarters was the largest, 873 tons, accounting for 69.18% of the total export volume Secondly, Macao and the United Arab Emirates accounted for 9.43% and 7.21% of the total exports respectively In the third quarter, China imported 10441 tons of sheep products, an increase of 91.64% over the same period last year Among them, the import of mutton was 10439 tons, an increase of 91.61% over the same period last year In the third quarter, China imported sheep products from New Zealand and Australia, accounting for 76.22% and 23.78% respectively In the first three quarters, China's total import of sheep products was 26296 tons, an increase of 38.11% over the same period last year Among them, the import of mutton was 26293 tons, an increase of 38.10% over the same period last year In the first three quarters, China imported the largest amount of sheep products from New Zealand, reaching 19478 tons, accounting for 74.07% of the total imports in the first three quarters, followed by Australia, accounting for 25.87% of the total imports in the first three quarters, and the United States and Singapore accounted for 0.04% and 0.02% respectively Visible, in the first three