Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (4.5-4.7)

Macro: This week coincides with the Qingming small holiday domestic market closed, trading began on Wednesday, Hebei Xiong'an New Area construction plan may promote industrial metal demand growth, but domestic inventories continue to increase, making aluminum prices upward pressure
.
In addition, Hebei and other places have great environmental protection efforts, smelter shutdowns are more serious, and even news said that the local drone is dispatched for inspection, but the market reception atmosphere is not high, lack of good news support, it is expected that the short-term aluminum price upward is weak
.
Abroad, the overall US economic data is good, the US dollar index is inhibited by the rise in aluminum prices, in addition, after the United States launched missiles to a Syrian air base, geopolitical risks rose, market nervousness heated up again, and base metals came under obvious pressure
.

Market: Due to the financial pressure of traders at the end of the quarter, the end of the week is mainly shipped, and the rise in aluminum prices has not hesitated to sell at a high price
.
Downstream traders slightly replenished at the low level at the beginning of the week, and there were also stocks last week, and the aluminum market began to fear heights after the rebound at the end of the week, maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the Qingming Festival replenishment market did not trigger
.
In terms of the market, the data shows that the inventory in the five places has increased to 1.
189 million tons, the financial pressure of the holding manufacturers objectively exists, the market is abundant, the downstream maintains on-demand procurement, and the delivery is close to next week, and the discount is expected to narrow to 140~80 yuan / ton
.

In terms of inventory: the inventory of Lun aluminum continued to decline sharply this week, the latest inventory was reported at 1,818,300 metric tons, and the total inventory was reduced by 68,100 metric tons this week, a decrease of about 3.
6%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 339961 tons, an increase of 7,635 tons, or about 2.
3%,
from last week.
Since the beginning of the year, the rapid accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory approached 1.
2 million tons, and the inventory inflection point has not yet appeared, in the face of abundant spot and high operating aluminum prices, downstream procurement is not active, this year's spot continues to be significantly discounted for a long
time.
Due to the rapid accumulation of spot inventory and the supply is still only increasing, the destocking cycle will be extended, and aluminum prices will still be dragged down
in the later period.

Aftermarket analysis: back after the holiday, Shanghai aluminum broke through after the opening on Wednesday, touching a high of 14185 yuan / ton, and the night high touched 14270 yuan / ton, getting rid of the shock range of more than a month, dragged down by the surrounding metals on Thursday night, Shanghai aluminum recorded a longer lower shadow, and the low touched 13905 yuan / ton
.
At present, the "supply-side" reform work has not yet released specific documents, the short term is still one of the main factors supporting aluminum prices, it is expected that next week is expected to repair the shock situation at a high level of aluminum prices, and the external strength and internal weakness will be maintained
.