Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (2.6-2.10)

Macro: Abroad, the Fed's March interest rate hike prospect is uncertain, the market maintains a cautious attitude, and the domestic aluminum price trend this week has been ups and downs
.
The fall in the US 30-year MBA mortgage rate last week reflects that the US housing market should not be optimistic, the uncertainty of US President Trump's economic policies has prompted investors to rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and aluminum prices have been affected by macro news, maintaining a wide range
.
Domestically, China has adopted monetary tightening policies to suppress market enthusiasm; And the poor market demand in the off-season and the problem of backlog in the early stage, the increase in aluminum inventory increased rapidly, and the rebound
of aluminum prices was inhibited.
On the whole, the continuous intensification of supply-side pressure and the recent capital operation and market trend performance have diverged, the short-term long-short game has intensified, and Shanghai aluminum has maintained a volatile market
.

Market: Aluminum prices are generally volatile this week
.
In the first half of the week, smelters controlled shipments, and the market supply was less, while downstream demand did not significantly improve, and the overall transaction situation was weak; Starting in the second half of the week, as aluminum prices rebounded, and inventories continued to accumulate after the holiday, traders began to ship a large number of highs, and downstream companies will wait until the Lantern Festival to start work one after another, and demand will begin to gradually recover
next week.
It is expected that after the Lantern Festival, downstream processing enterprises will resume work one after another, next week's spot trading is expected to be more active than this week, and close to delivery, spot discount is expected to continue to narrow the futures month, and it is expected that next week's spot run between 100 and flat water
.

As of February 10, the latest inventory was reported at 2,231,300 metric tons, and a total of 24,700 metric tons were reduced this week, a decrease of about 1.
1%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 178904 tons, an increase of 41,934 tons from last week, an increase of about 30.
6%.

At present, the social inventory of the five domestic places has further rebounded, and the short-term supply pressure has increased, which will test whether demand can be supported
in the later stage.
Considering that the downstream start has not fully recovered after the holiday, short-term price pressure still exists, and it is mainly wait-and-see for
the time being.

Future market analysis: This week due to the Spring Festival holiday factors have not ended, merchants into the market is relatively limited, recyclers mostly choose to start work near the Lantern Festival, it is expected that next week aluminum arrivals will increase, so that aluminum prices will rise and will maintain volatility
.
Overall, the recent aluminum price speculation is more sentimental, the price with the fluctuation of other varieties and the characteristics of fluctuations are significant, need to beware of excessive social inventory caused by the decline in aluminum prices, but from the consumption time node, production costs and industrial policy prospects, the aluminum market spring consumption market is still worth looking forward to
.