Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (1.9-1.13)

Macro: Recently, the domestic economic data is better than expected and the news of capacity reduction has stimulated the aluminum market to be more enthusiastic, and the aluminum price has also stood above
13200 yuan.
China's December CPI data showed moderate inflation, PPI data showed that some industries had a significant effect on capacity reduction, related commodity prices rose synchronously, and the relationship between market supply and demand gradually improved, indicating that its economy is gradually picking up
.
In addition, market rumors say that Shandong and other places electrolytic aluminum and alumina production reduction on a large scale, aluminum prices benefited from a strong rebound, breaking through 13,000, the highest increase in a single day reached 470 yuan / ton, out of the recent shock range
.

Market: The overall transaction in East China this week is light, and the high aluminum price makes the downstream willingness to receive goods weak, and the transaction situation is basically consistent
throughout the week.
Now the aluminum market downstream aluminum profile factory began to basically stop work this weekend, the production of aluminum demand is about to turn to a stagnant state, downstream stocks are affected by high aluminum prices and suppressed, it is expected that the beginning of next week in the case of a slight reduction in aluminum prices may usher in the last replenishment tide, this week inventory continues to show an increase
.

In terms of inventory: as of January 13, LME aluminum stocks reported 2244175 tons, an increase of 27,150 tons or 1.
22% from last week, a four-week increase and a new high since August 26 last year; In the same period, the previous period of aluminum inventories reported 118235 tons, a weekly increase of 13,698 tons, a high since September 14 last year, a six-week increase, but far lower than the average inventory value of 2016 of 200,000 tons
.
Data show that as of January 12, the total social aluminum inventory in the five places in the country was 355,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, and the inventory recovery is still continuing
.
In general, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has not slowed down significantly, the production of electrolytic aluminum in December reached a new high, and the recovery of the supply side will drive aluminum to oversupply, and the inventory recovery is obvious evidence; However, this week's market speculation that the supply-side reform of electrolytic aluminum in 2017 will continue to make efforts to make aluminum prices rise sharply, and the actual fundamentals are difficult to support, and the rise may be difficult to sustain.

Future market analysis: The overall atmosphere of the market this week is good, spot aluminum prices maintain an upward trend, in addition, the oil price trend strongly supports aluminum prices higher, Lun aluminum achieved seven consecutive days of rise
.
At present, downstream aluminum plants are bearish on post-holiday prices, while the alumina spot market is cold, and spot prices are weak
with the falling market.
At the same time, there will not be much stocking before the holiday, and next week aluminum profile factories will start a holiday one after another, and the demand for stocking will basically end
this week.
The anti-dumping actions of aluminum in various countries around the world have increased the pressure of aluminum exports to alleviate domestic excess
.
It is expected that aluminum prices will fall sharply
.