Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (1.3-1.6)

On the macro front, at the beginning of the new year, there was a strong correction
in the RMB.
It is reported that the offshore yuan took the lead in rising by more than 1,000 points on January 4, and the onshore yuan also strengthened, and the central price of the yuan rose by the largest
in more than a month on January 5.
Abroad, Trump's victory has been spurring populism in the United States, and a more hawkish Fed should boost potential global risk aversion, especially as concerns about the persistence of the EU's external debt are revived due to the rise of the dollar and the rise of protectionism in the United States
.
The dollar index has suffered a sharp retreat in recent days, and analysts said that the blockage of the dollar's rally is a natural correction, and the overall upward trend should soon continue
.
On the whole, the market has no good news, the aluminum price has limited room to rise and fall a few years ago, or it is still in the volatile and stable market, it is difficult to improve
.

In terms of the market, this week is the first week after the New Year's Day, the market arrival continues to increase, and inventories continue to grow, but spot futures are not obvious
.
East China market circulation supply is sufficient, holders stable shipments, and the trading period of aluminum down, middlemen and downstream cautious wait-and-see sentiment is strong, middlemen easily do not leave inventory, downstream demand remains general, after the heavy pressure of environmental protection aluminum factory did not re-start, the overall market transaction is light, showing more selling goods and buying less goods, spot premium dropped from 100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to about
20 yuan / ton.
Near the end of the year, the overall market adjusted downward, and the receivers were mostly in a wait-and-see state except for on-demand procurement, and the overall transaction was expected to continue to be weak
.

Inventories: As of January 6, LME aluminum stocks reported 2217025 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons or 0.
5% from last week, marking three consecutive weeks; In the same period, the aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported at 104537 tons, a weekly increase of 3,815 tons, the highest point since September 14 last year, which is a five-week increase, but far below the average inventory value of 200,000 tons
during the year.
After the New Year's Day holiday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the five places increased by 16,000 tons to 340,000 tons, with the opening of the market after the year, downstream consumption turned weak, while upstream supply continued to release, supply and demand fundamentals continued to run towards the trend of excess, and it is expected that aluminum prices will continue to be under pressure
in the later period.

Future market analysis: This week coincides with the New Year's Day holiday, and the year is approaching, market demand is gradually weakening, and the trend of Shanghai aluminum shock continues
.
In terms of the market, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is gradually released, the output growth trend continues, the market supply is sufficient, while downstream consumption continues to be sluggish, inventory has accelerated and the premium has fallen sharply, and it is expected that aluminum prices will continue to be under pressure
in the medium term.
On the market, Shanghai aluminum will continue to test the 12,500 first-line support, short-term weak shock is the mainstay, if it falls below it will continue to be bearish
.