Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (11.14-11.18)

Macro: Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that among China's 70 large and medium-sized cities in October, the real estate market in first- and second-tier cities cooled significantly, and the future demand for domestic industrial metals is expected to be poor
in the context of the continuous regulation of the property market.
At the same time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen made hawkish comments in favor of raising interest rates, which are now more than 90% likely to be raised in December, boosting the dollar and suppressing the price of non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum
.
Previously, aluminum prices showed a rising market, low inventory and transportation problems made the bullish sentiment in the market stage still high, after Trump was elected as the US president, the news that he will increase infrastructure also attracted a large amount of money to the commodity market, base metals rose sharply across the board, and the market showed a bullish situation
for a while.
However, at this time, it continues to chase long, with great uncertainty, and the space for aluminum prices to rise sharply again is limited
.

Market: the overall transaction of the aluminum market this week was affected by the continuous decline in prices, the situation in various places is generally more general, this week in a small batch of imported sources and some northwest areas of the accumulated goods into the market, inventory slightly rebounded, holders of shipments willingness with a strong willingness, but had to frequently reduce prices to attract downstream receivers, receiver sentiment in the past two days affected by low prices has improved
.
East China holders no longer sell goods, middlemen believe that there is room for aluminum to stabilize, ready to move, a small number of middlemen began to replenish inventory, downstream weekend stocking, willingness to receive goods to pick up, the overall transaction picked up
yesterday.
South China is approaching the weekend, in the case of raw material inventory is already at an absolute low, downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to stock up, high enthusiasm for procurement, active shipments from cargo holders, hot trading by traders, and good overall transactions
.

In terms of inventory: as of November 18, LME aluminum stocks reported 2,157,600 tons, a daily decrease of 5,900 tons, close to a one-month high; In the same period, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 87,735 tons, a slight weekly increase of 615 tons, the fifth weekly increase in the past six weeks, but far below the average inventory value of 233,000 tons for the year, and close to the year's low of 83,775 tons
.
At present, the backlog of inventory digestion still needs time, inventory recovery will not be too fast, low inventory will still provide support for aluminum prices, but considering that the future aluminum supply and demand both ends have production capacity successively put into place, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity new and resumed production speed is significantly faster than the demand side, long-term electrolytic aluminum oversupply pressure increases, aluminum prices are still facing the risk of
falling.

Aftermarket analysis: Last week, the commodity market cooled significantly, and major contracts continued to show a net outflow of funds
.
In this environment, the confidence of aluminum market bulls is seriously insufficient, although Xinduo has tried to push up many times, but the domestic aluminum price decline speed is considerable, reflecting the strong willingness of bulls to close their positions and leave the market
.
Looking ahead to next week, because the improvement in supply largely comes from the improvement of land transportation, and Xinjiang began to snow, or further hinder automobile transportation in the later period, so despite the weakening of demand, aluminum prices may be difficult to fall next week, and are expected to flatten or slightly weaken.