Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (10.10-10.14)

Macro: Abroad, recent weak economic data from the United States has not deterred expectations
of interest rate hikes.
The US September non-farm payrolls data was less than expected, but then two senior Fed officials spoke hawkishly, the Fed's December interest rate hike expectations increased significantly, the unilateral rise of the US dollar made the price of dollar-denominated metals appear high, aluminum prices under pressure to fall, difficult to rise
.
Domestically, recently, 22 provinces in China have successively introduced real estate regulation and control policies, affecting housing sales, and then affecting real estate investment and construction, which is closely related to the growth rate
of aluminum consumption.
The external environment is not very favorable
to the rise in the price of metals such as copper and aluminum.

Market: Overall trading this week has fallen
from before the National Day holiday.
At the beginning of the week, the holders of stable shipments, traders actively looking for low-priced sources, downstream enterprises have good willingness to purchase, aluminum prices continue to maintain a high level, and then the market's concerns about oversupply rose, bearish sentiment was strong, approaching the change of month, the willingness of holders to exchange cash increased greatly, active shipments, traders and downstream enterprises expect aluminum prices to be further lowered, maintain a wait-and-see attitude
.
On Friday, cargo holders actively shipped, the discount range expanded, and traders received more goods, but the wait-and-see mood was not abated when the month was approaching, and downstream enterprises purchased on demand and maintained a cautious attitude
.

Stocks: LME aluminium stocks were reported at 2089475 tonnes as of October 14, down 37,350 tonnes from last week, and were close to the low of 2068925 tonnes set on Dec.
18, 2008; In the same period, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 84,655 tons, a slight increase of 880 tons, far lower than the average inventory of 233,000 tons during the year, close to the year's low of 83,775 tons
.
In the short term, aluminum inventory to maintain a low level is the biggest bargaining chip for bulls, coupled with rising transportation costs to form a certain support for aluminum prices, but because the transportation of stranded aluminum ingots will gradually flow into the market, the release of new capacity will have a certain inhibitory effect on the rise in aluminum prices, and the later market still needs to be closely observed
.

After-market analysis: after nearly a month of continuous rise, aluminum prices have seen a high pullback market, the current aluminum market purchase enthusiasm has been frustrated, aluminum factories are mostly cautious wait-and-see
.
In the short term, inventories continue to remain low, and prices such as alumina, freight, coal and other prices rise, or continue to support aluminum, but the market's concerns about oversupply have risen, and the impact of real estate regulation and control in the later period cannot be ignored, to a certain extent, inhibiting the rapid growth
of aluminum prices.
It is expected that the later aluminum price will still be dominated by high volatility
.