Analysis and Prospect of Domestic Soybean Meal Market Situation

Introduction: in late March and late March, the price of domestic soybean meal bottomed out and picked up, followed by a sharp rise At present, the increase of spot soybean meal has reached 8% - 16% This round of soybean meal price rise, first from the domestic spot market, followed by CBOT soybean break 600 cents, finally reflected in the domestic soybean meal futures market Therefore, the rise in spot prices is the root cause In March, the industry generally bearish soybean meal market, the main reason is: the number of domestic soybean imports increased significantly in the first quarter, 69% higher than the same period last year Especially in March, more than 2 million tons arrived at the port, and the subsequent cheap soybeans imported from South America are about to land, and the quantity is sufficient At the same time, the feed demand is not strong and the oil factory is suffering from processing losses Therefore, most people think that the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the soybean price will fall below 1900 yuan / ton However, the reaction of the market is beyond most people's expectation Instead of going down, the market is going up and up This requires us to think about and understand the real supply and demand situation of the market, in order to explain the reasons for the price rise of domestic soybean meal The specific analysis is as follows: xUP I domestic soybeans withdraw from the oil extraction market ahead of time XUP this year, the import market of domestic soybeans is different from that of previous years We can't just think that if the import volume is higher than that of last year, we are not optimistic about the future market of soybean meal In fact, this year's domestic soybeans have exited the oil extraction market ahead of time after the rush buying upsurge last autumn This has led to the expansion of soybean imports since March Due to various factors such as production and policies, China's demand for soybeans is extremely strong The purchase of soybeans from the United States has continued from August last year to the beginning of April this year, greatly supporting the price of CBOT market At present, China has imported 7.6 million tons of American soybeans, 3.4 million tons higher than the same period last year Before and after the Spring Festival, the oil plants in the north of China have stopped purchasing domestic soybeans due to processing losses, which actually means that most of the domestic soybeans have been withdrawn from the oil extraction market since March this year, and the soybeans used for oil extraction have been completely dependent on imported soybeans Therefore, from March to September, in order to meet the demand of oil extraction, the domestic soybean import volume per month must be larger than that of previous years, and it is expected that the monthly import volume should be at least kept at the level of 1.5-1.7 million tons Only in this way can China's annual pressing demand of 24 million tons be met That's why the import volume in March was so huge, and there was no soybean backlog in domestic ports XUP 2 The sharp decrease of soybean meal supply intensifies the contradiction between supply and demand Since last year, the price of soybean meal has been falling continuously, which makes the production of oil plants in a disadvantageous situation When the processing loss of imported soybean is the highest, it is close to 100 yuan / ton Due to the rising cost of imported raw materials, oil plants have stopped production or reduced production Some large oil plants produce in proper amount, with sufficient stock of raw materials Many small and medium-sized oil plants, especially those in the north which mainly squeeze domestic soybeans, can not get enough raw materials to stop production and wait and see With the warming of the weather, the domestic breeding industry began to enter the peak season of production, and the purchase of raw materials by feed manufacturers has begun to increase, which eventually exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand In the first quarter of xUP, imports of raw soybeans were mostly concentrated in East China and Shandong, while imports from Guangdong, the main soybean meal market, were relatively small, resulting in the shutdown of local oil plants in the first three months of this year At present, the prevalence of SARS in Guangdong Province poses a threat to the local aquaculture industry As the local oil plants in Guangdong do not operate at full capacity, the impact on zhoulian region or market is not only negative, but also positive At present, the soybean meal price in Guangdong is as high as 2300 yuan / ton, which is a good proof The reduction of soybean meal production in Guangdong further contributed to the decline of domestic soybean meal supply and supported the rise of soybean meal prices in the mainland XUP III domestic soybean meal demand is expected to increase significantly Under the control of last year's genetically modified policy, soybean imports were only 11.32 million tons, down 19% year on year for the first time compared with previous years This year, the domestic soybean meal market objectively has the requirement of restorative growth Over the years, domestic soybean meal demand has continued to grow significantly, but in 2002, due to the decline in exports of livestock products and the impact of large losses in the breeding industry, the demand growth of meal was not as good as that in previous years Even so, the growth rate last year reached 8% It is predicted that in 2003, the demand for domestic soybean meal will reach 19 million tons, of which the export is about 1 million tons, and the domestic demand is 18 million tons, with a growth rate expected to reach 17% In terms of the consumption situation in 2003, it should be said that up to now, the demand for domestic game industry has not improved much For example, the export of large-scale meat and livestock products from Shandong to the European Union has not recovered, and the aquaculture industry continues to be sluggish; the aquaculture and feed industry in Guangdong will also suffer a heavy blow due to the impact of SARS But it is too early to conclude that feed demand will decline in 2003 After all, after more than 10 years of development, the demand for soybean meal will continue to grow In terms of price trend, the retail price of commodities rose by 0.2% in March, which is the first time that the retail price index in China has changed from negative to positive for 15 consecutive months, which is of great significance Among the 8 categories of commodities surveyed (food, entertainment, education and culture, clothing and housing), the price range of food is the largest The initial rise in prices shows that the situation of sustained deflation in recent years is likely to end As a basic agricultural product, the sharp rise in the price of soybean is bound to cause the rise in the price of downstream products, which makes it possible for the breeding industry to go out of the trough this year The increase in the demand for soybean meal is self-evident From the perspective of the future market, xUP's raw materials in the international market will continue to be bullish in a short period of time CBOT soybean is going up with a full confidence, regardless of the high yield in South America, the limited area reduction in the United States and the weak demand of the European Union Focus on China's import growth of soybeans to the United States as high as 81%, focus on the weather during spring sowing in the United States, and focus on demand factors began to dominate the market XUP in the global soybean market partial tension and the overall loose competition, the recent CBOT market performance has shown that the power of demand is better The author believes that the pressure of soybean harvest in South America has begun to appear in the market, and the negative impact on the market is becoming weaker and weaker Next, the sowing of soybeans in the northern hemisphere will begin The weather in the Midwest of the United States is changing rapidly in spring, which is most likely to cause a significant fluctuation in soybean prices Because of the SARS epidemic in China, xUP's demand for meat and egg products in tourism and catering industry decreased, which was finally reflected in the price of soybean meal Therefore, in the short term, the soybean meal market will remain strong, and the main negative impact in the long term may come from SARS, and the extent depends on the development of the epidemic Brazil has thus slowed its soybean shipments to China At the same time, the processing speed of domestic oil plants also directly affects the price trend of soybean meal, so there are many uncertain factors, which need further observation in the future   xUP
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