Analysis and Prospect of domestic feed market in the first half of the year

Introduction: in 2002, China's national economy will continue to maintain a rapid growth rate of 7% The adjustment of agricultural structure will take a big step At the same time, with China's accession to the WTO, more multinational companies will enter the Chinese market, and the market competition will be more intense In order to keep a firm foothold in the domestic market and enter the international market, China's feed industry must optimize the structure, improve the management level, improve the level of science and technology, improve the quality of products, especially the quality of health and safety, and create famous brands of enterprises and products It is expected that the total output of feed products will reach 86 million tons in 2002, and the total output value of feed processing industry will exceed 200 billion yuan, realizing new and greater development At the same time, in order to meet the needs of domestic and international markets and ensure food, the research and development of high-efficiency, low toxicity and low residue additives will be strengthened, and the safe, high-efficiency and environmental protection feed will be further developed 1 Analysis on the price of feed products in the first half of 2002 From January to June, the prices of pig feed, layer feed and broiler feed were lower than the same period last year 1 The price of compound feed for fattening pigs has picked up From August 2001, the price of compound feed for fattening pigs began to decline all the way, until April 2002, the decline rate was 9.15% The average price from January to June this year is 1.51 yuan / kg, 3.8% lower than that of the same period last year (1.57 yuan / kg), but 4.9% higher than that of the same period 2000 (1.44 yuan / kg) From the perspective of regional price, the provinces with high price of pig compound feed from January to June are mainly in the south, including Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi, Hubei, Yunnan and Hunan From January to June, Tianjin, Ningxia, Jiangsu, Hebei, Shandong, Liaoning, Qinghai and other provinces kept the low price of compound feed for finishing pigs 2 The price of broiler compound feed has risen slightly Since April this year, the price of layer compound feed has risen by 2.82% From January to June, the average price of broiler compound feed was 1.83 yuan / kg, 2.66% lower than that of the same period last year (1.88 yuan / kg), but the same as the average price of the same period in 2000 From January to June 2002, Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Beijing, Hainan and Sichuan were the provinces with higher price of broiler compound feed, and Shandong, Qinghai, Henan, Ningxia and Hebei were the provinces with lower price 3 The price of compound feed for laying hens has risen slightly Since April this year, the price of compound feed for laying hens has risen by 2.5% From January to June this year, the average price of compound feed for laying hens was 1.63 yuan / kg, down 2.4% compared with the same period last year (1.67 yuan / kg), slightly higher than the same period in 2000 (1.61 yuan / kg) From January to June, Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hunan and other provinces with higher price of layer compound feed, and Tianjin, Ningxia, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and other provinces with lower price The main reason for the recent rise in the price of feed products in China is the rise in the price of feed raw materials 2 Analysis on the price of feed materials in the first half of 2002 Generally speaking, the price of corn rose steadily from January to June In the first half of this year, the domestic corn market was not adversely affected by China's accession to the WTO, but promoted the export of corn The corn market is affected by the policy more, and the policies such as exemption of railway construction fund for bulk agricultural products, encouragement of export, etc have also reduced a lot of pressure on the domestic corn market in the second half of the year, and have played a supporting role in the return of corn prices From the domestic market, from the northern market to the southern market, from the production market to the sales market, the price of corn basically keeps a stable trend Since August last year (1.24 yuan / kg), the price of corn has declined all the way, and by January this year (1.05 yuan / kg), the decline rate reached 15.3% From January to June this year, the average price of corn was 1.07 yuan / kg, 6.14% lower than that of the same period last year (1.14 yuan / kg) The provinces with higher corn prices are Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi, Sichuan and other provinces, and the provinces with lower prices are Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shanxi, Beijing, Xinjiang and other provinces The main reasons for the recent rise in corn prices are: 1 Seasonal factors At present, corn production is off-season, and corn consumption mainly depends on inventory; 2 China's corn export continues to grow, which promotes the price to rise; 3 The prices of relevant food varieties, soybeans and their products rise rapidly, which has a pulling effect on corn prices; 4 The prices of international corn market rebound It is estimated that corn prices will rise steadily in the future, but there is little room for them to rise 2 The price of soybean meal fluctuated slightly from January to June The average price of soybean meal from January to June this year was 2.02 yuan / kg, 7.76% lower than that of the same period last year (2.19 yuan / kg), and 3.81% lower than that of the same period 2000 (2.10 yuan / kg) From April, soybean meal prices began to recover, up 7.18% From January to June, the provinces with higher soybean meal prices are Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Gansu, Hainan, etc., and the provinces with lower prices are Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, etc In addition to the support of the rising soybean price in the international market, the high cost of imported soybean arrival has basically limited the falling space of soybean meal After maintaining the production of low inventory in the early stage, the domestic feed production enterprises recently increased the number of purchases, which has improved the weak demand of soybean meal to some extent However, this year's domestic demand Weakness has been one of the main factors restricting the price rise of soybean meal With the development of aquaculture and aquaculture, the demand of soybean meal is expected to be improved In addition, soybean meal prices in the international market have been rising continuously recently 3 The price of imported fish meal rose sharply from January to June Since November last year, the price of imported fish meal has risen all the way, from 5.00 yuan / kg to 5.72 yuan / kg in April this year, an increase of 14.4% The average price of imported fish meal from January to June this year was 5.57 yuan / kg, 12.5% higher than that of the same period last year (4.95 yuan / kg) The main reasons for the sharp rise in the import price of fish meal are as follows: in order to prevent the introduction of BSE and itch disease, China has banned the import of protein feed such as meat and bone meal from BSE epidemic areas, and the import of protein feed has turned to the relatively concentrated deep sea fish meal produced in Peru and Chile, the South American countries On the other hand, the fishing season in South America is April, may, September and October every year Fishing is prohibited for the rest of the year Before April in the first half of the year, the supply of fish meal is relatively insufficient, which leads to a sharp rise in the price of fish meal in the international market In addition, since the middle and late June of this year, although China and Germany and other major fish meal importing countries have not imported a large amount of fish meal, the import of non-traditional markets such as the Middle East, Russia and Southeast Asia has increased; on the other hand, the arrival of the fishing ban period will make the next few weeks' fish catch and production of fish meal very limited, so most suppliers are reluctant to sell fish meal, which also makes the price of fish meal rebound 4 Price analysis of lysine and methionine from January to June From January to June of this year, the import price of lysine in China has the same trend as that in China, with great fluctuation, the highest price is 17 yuan / kg, the lowest price is 14.76 yuan / kg, and the change range is 15.18% The average price of imported lysine in the second quarter was 15.50 yuan / kg, 6.96% lower than that in the first quarter (16.66 yuan / kg) In the first half of the year, the reasons for the drop in the market price of lysine are as follows: 1 In terms of demand, the demand for lysine has also declined as the domestic pig production continues to decline steadily; 2 Many users are reluctant to purchase more because of the continuous decline in the market price, and the mentality of "buy up, don't buy down" makes many feed factories use as they buy, thus weakening the market demand; 3 In terms of supply Recently, the import of lysine to Hong Kong is relatively concentrated, and the supply of lysine is relatively abundant, which makes the market with relatively weak demand overburdened and becomes the direct fuse of market price decline From January to June of this year, the import price of solid methionine in China also fluctuated greatly, from 19.56 yuan / kg at the lowest to 21.2 yuan / kg at the highest, with a change of 8.38% The average price of liquid methionine in the first half of the year is about 16.65 yuan / kg, which is relatively stable The domestic methionine market has not changed its downward trend, and the market price continues to decline slightly, which has reached a historical low The weak domestic market makes the transaction of methionine very light, and the atmosphere of market wait-and-see is very strong At present, many feed enterprises do not press the stock, how much to buy, and traders dare not purchase more, in order to reduce market risk 3 Import and export trade of feed raw materials from January to June 1 Import and export of corn from January to June 2002 reached 3.5 million tons, an increase of 11% over the same period of last year Corn exports in June were 257892 tons, an increase of 106% over the same period last year Among them, 89564 tons were exported to Malaysia, an increase of 556% over June last year; 68202 tons were exported to South Korea, an increase of 53% over the same period last year 2002 is the first year of China's accession to the WTO This year, China's import quota for corn is 5.85 million tons, but at present, there is no great impact on domestic corn 2 The import and export of soybean meal according to customs statistics, China's total export of soybean meal from January to June was 596456 tons, an increase of 1065.7% over the same period last year In the second quarter, 348915 tons of soybean meal were exported, up 41% from 247541 tons in the first quarter From January to June, exports to Japan totaled 300864 tons, an increase of 587.7% over the same period last year; and to South Korea, 105371 tons, an increase of 3237.2% over the same period last year From January to June, China imported 490 tons of soybean meal, down 98.5% from the same period last year, of which there was no soybean meal import in February and March From January to June, 190 tons of soybean meal were imported from Taiwan, an increase of 35.7% over the same period last year, and 300 tons from the Netherlands, a decrease of 70.7% over the same period last year If the full refund policy of soybean meal can be implemented, the export of soybean meal in China will be further expanded 3 Fish meal import: from January to May this year, China imported 269157 tons of fish meal for feed, a decrease of 14.6% over the same period last year Among them, 54457 tons were imported in May, a decrease of 39.5% over the same period last year In recent years, the scale of domestic feeding industry has been expanding, and the domestic high-quality protein animal feed is far from meeting the demand The market gap of fish meal in China is about 1 million tons per year, and the import volume accounts for about 20% of the export market share of the world fish meal, which plays an important role in the price rise and fall of the world fish meal market According to statistics, from January to June this year, Peru exported 637179 tons of fish meal, of which 391285 tons were exported to China (excluding Taiwan), accounting for 61.4% of its total exports 4 Outlook for the second half of the year In October 2001, the general office of the State Council forwarded the opinions of the Ministry of agriculture on accelerating the development of animal husbandry In this year's strategic adjustment of agricultural and rural industrial structure, animal husbandry has become one of the main directions of structural adjustment Animal husbandry has entered a new development period, bringing new development space for the development of feed industry 1 Corn (1) in the third quarter of this year, China's corn price will continue to rise seasonally, but there is no room for a significant increase The main reason is that in the past two months