Analysis and forecast on the market situation of animal products in China (2)

Introduction: Analysis on the price trend of domestic and foreign animal products At the first Jiangsu agricultural product information conference held recently, according to Cai Ping, an expert from the Ministry of agriculture, the price of beef and mutton has been relatively stable due to the increase of domestic demand and export; the price of pork and pig production has fluctuated greatly due to the influence of supply and demand; the price of poultry has been greatly affected by export, which is also a product greatly impacted after China's accession to the WTO Because of the high cost and green trade barrier, the price trend is low In terms of varieties: frx pigs: according to more than 400 fixed-point market surveys conducted by the animal husbandry bureau of the Ministry of agriculture (the same below), the national average of pigs in 2001 was 6.24 yuan / kg, 4.7% higher than last year The specific price of pig food was lower than the reasonable level (5.06:1), but the price fluctuated greatly in each month The difference between the highest February and the lowest June is 11.3% The others are basically at the break even point In addition, the price of piglets in summer is relatively stable, and the price of corn and other feed is relatively reasonable It is better to comprehensively calculate the pig raising benefit of farmers In February this year, the price of pigs was 6.3 yuan / kg, slightly higher than the previous month, down 4.5% year on year, mainly due to the impact of market supply and demand With the increase of corn supply this year, pig prices are expected to stabilize at a lower level Frx pork: in 2001, the market price of boneless and skinned pork (the same below) was 10.65 yuan / kg, up 5.45% year on year February this year was 10.88 yuan, up 1.44% year on year It is expected that pork prices will be relatively stable this year with the stable production, especially the lower price of feed grains such as corn Frx beef and mutton: in 2001, boneless beef was 13.4 yuan / kg, up 4% year on year; in February this year, it was 14.7 yuan / kg, up 8.2% year on year In 2001, boneless mutton was 15.4 yuan / kg, up 3.7% year on year; in February this year, it was 16.6 yuan / kg, up 5.1% year on year It is predicted that with the steady development of production and the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to grassland in the western region, the production of cattle and sheep, which mainly feed on grass, will increase steadily, and their prices will be relatively stable Live chicken: from February to July last year, the price of live chicken has been declining Mainly in April last year, Japan and South Korea imposed import bans on Chinese poultry meat In August, with the lifting of the ban, the price began to recover slowly, reaching 9 yuan / kg at the end of the year, basically the same as at the beginning of the year In February this year, it was 9.7 yuan / kg, up 12.6% year on year The average egg price last year was 5.3 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.4% year on year; the annual egg material ratio was 4.4:1, and the benefit of some chicken farms declined This year, the price of some agricultural materials rose steadily, reaching 5.6 yuan / kg in February, up 10.8% year-on-year, and the ratio of egg to material increased to 5.3:1, higher than the break even point, which is conducive to the production of eggs It is expected that the export of corn will be blocked in the future, the ratio of egg to material will basically remain at a reasonable level, and the market will remain relatively stable From the perspective of the international market, the price of pork is lower and the price of beef is higher Frx pork: in 2001, the wholesale price of pork in the US Japan market was 58.1 yuan / kg, down 7.9% year on year; in January this year, 44.9 yuan / kg, down 24.5% year on year Since November 2001, the price of pig has declined, but it has picked up in January this year The price is 10.2 yuan / kg 9.8% higher than the end of last year, but still lower than the same period last year It is expected that the price of pork in the international market will remain stable and low this year Frx beef: in 2001, the wholesale price in Australia and Japan was 34.8 yuan / kg, up 3.9% year on year; in January, 36.1 yuan / kg, up 6.5% month on month, down 2% year on year Mainly affected by European mad cow disease, a large number of slaughters have reduced supply and increased demand, resulting in price fluctuations It is expected that with the shift of consumption place from Europe to Asia, the world market will still be optimistic about the consumption of beef FRx According to the comparison of international and domestic prices, although China's pork output and export volume rank first in the world, with the decrease of pork price in the international market, the export benefit of China's pork (all in one) gradually declines In the future, we should develop more intensive processing, small packaging, semi-finished products and chilled meat products to achieve the purpose of cost saving and efficiency increasing by increasing the added value of pork Herbivores, such as cattle and sheep meat, have great advantages after China's accession to the WTO Their prices are lower than those of foreign countries In addition, China is still a pure land, free from BSE pollution Therefore, from the perspective of development trend, the market prospect is promising Broiler production is closely related to the markets of exporting countries such as Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong In terms of cost, China's broiler (leg) is 30% higher than that of the United States, higher than that of Thailand, Brazil and the European Union After China's accession to the WTO, with the tariff reduced from 20% to 10%, China's chicken can not only be exported to these countries, but also will be greatly impacted in the domestic market However, with the role of "green trade barrier", China's broiler market has potential in Southeast Asia, South Korea and Africa Especially some high-quality local chickens are very popular in the market Frx (author:) to feed Weibo to: