Analysis and forecast of soybean and soybean meal market in Shanghai

Introduction: the price of imported soybeans at the end of November was 0.99 yuan, up 2% on a monthly basis The increase was mainly due to a significant decline in the number of imported soybeans arriving in Shanghai, which was also affected by the holding of soybean importers for sale It is estimated that China's soybean imports in December will be around 800000 tons, an increase over the previous month At present, 30000 tons of imported soybeans parked in Shanghai port will be put on the market in succession, so it is expected that the price of imported soybeans will tend to fall slightly At the end of November, domestic soybean was 0.91 yuan, down 5% One of the main reasons is that Heilongjiang Province has greatly increased the planting area of soybean This year's soybean output will reach 5.16 million tons, 654000 tons higher than last year However, the quality of new beans has declined this year, and the oil content is lower than that of previous years, only the water content is lower than that of last year This to some extent suppressed the purchase price of Heilongjiang soybean Spot traders are on the sidelines It's hard for farmers to find a market for their soybeans The price of soybeans is too low for farmers to accept Second, China has built many large-scale soybean crushing plants in the south of China, whose crushing scale is generally about 1000-2000 tons / day There is a great demand for soybeans Domestic soybeans can not meet the processing demand at all, and due to the transportation conditions, the cost of transporting North soybeans to the south is large, so the imported soybeans with low price and high quality become the main choice of the southern crushing plants at present In this way, the main soybean consumption market in the South has reduced the demand for domestic soybean at present Therefore, it is expected that the domestic soybean market in December will still be in a depressed trend Soybean meal it is understood that most of the soybean processing plants in South China have actively increased the ex factory price of soybean meal in order to get rid of the situation of negative growth of crushing income At the same time, recent international soybean futures prices and domestic futures prices have increased to a certain extent, which also led to the rise of soybean meal futures prices, thus stimulating the rise of spot prices And because the current domestic soybean meal price is at a low level in the year, the gap between the domestic and international prices of soybean meal is increasing, which makes the export of soybean meal regain the opportunity, and enjoy the export tax rebate policy according to a certain proportion, the income of export soybean meal is higher than the income of domestic soybean meal, and the export volume of soybean meal of domestic soybean processing enterprises with import and export rights begins to increase substantially , which will drive up soybean meal prices in December.