Analysis and forecast of domestic spot copper market in 2017

According to the monitoring data of the cable network: following the rally at the end of 2016, the spot copper price continued to move up in 2017, and the increase was large
.
Looking at the trend of the whole year, the first half of the year was dominated by shocks, and the increase was mainly concentrated in the second half of the year
.
Represented by Yangtze River spot 1# copper, the average price in early January was about 45,700 yuan / ton, and at the end of December to 55,250 yuan / ton, with a price increase of about 20.
9%.

Trend review: In 2017, the trend of copper prices is basically divided into four stages, from January to February, copper prices continued the previous year's rally, showing a slight increase; From March to June, weak shocks in the range were the mainstay; In July, it began to rise vigorously, reaching the highest point of the year at the end of October and hitting a three-year high; A certain correction began in November, after which it remained high and volatile
.

Market analysis: At the beginning of the year, the macro environment at home and abroad was favorable, and there were many copper mine supply interruptions in the world, and the tightening of market supply and demand made copper prices rise
.
Since March, copper prices have been running
weakly in a mixture of long and bearish conditions.
Due to the market's hype on the Fed's interest rate hike, the dollar index has been strengthening, copper prices are under obvious pressure, in addition, under the surge in inventories and the resumption of global copper mine production and other negative factors, copper prices are further under pressure, basically dominated by weak
declines.
In July, copper prices began to gain strength
.
During this period, the market was basically good, affected by the news of the ban on the import of scrap seven types of copper, the market's concerns about the shortage of supply heated up, and copper prices began to blow out, rising out of control; In addition, the overall performance of the global PMI index is better, the market repairs the pessimistic expectations of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund raises the global economic growth forecast, the world is generally optimistic about Chinese demand, boosting refined copper consumption, copper prices fluctuated higher
.
After entering November, facing the seasonal consumption off-season, and the Fed's interest rate hike in December, copper prices were weak and volatile, and there was a certain degree of correction, and after the Fed's interest rate hike boots landed, copper prices stabilized and continued to run
strongly along the upward channel.

Overall: copper prices rose steadily in 2017, driven by the further recovery of the global economy, China's demand is steadily improving, the US dollar index is under pressure and the supply disturbance caused by foreign copper mine strikes
.
At present, the copper market is in a calm period, there is no obvious positive and negative information in macro and fundamentals, and it is expected that copper prices will continue to maintain a narrow range
in the short term.

Outlook for the future: In 2018, the promotion of copper prices by the above positive factors will weaken, the focus of the copper market will return to the demand side, it is expected that global consumption will maintain low growth, distribution network transformation and new energy vehicles will be the main driving force
for copper demand growth.
China's restrictions on scrap copper imports will also have some positive support
for the copper market.
It is expected that the center of gravity of copper prices will move upward in 2018, but there is no fundamental support
for a unilateral upward movement.