Analysis and forecast of China's Wheat Import and export

Introduction: 1 In the past nine months, the U.S Department of agriculture has repeatedly lowered the forecast of China's Wheat Import in 2002 / 03 and raised the forecast of China's wheat export From May every year, the U.S Department of agriculture of v3q puts forward detailed forecast opinions on the supply and demand balance of the world wheat market in the next year, and adjusts them on a monthly basis In May 2002, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that China's wheat imports and exports in 2002 / 03 were 3 million tons and 1 million tons respectively In the second half of 2002, the world's main wheat exporting countries suffered from a serious drought, and the wheat output declined As a result, the wheat price in the international market rose significantly in the second half of the year The tight price of goods in the international market is rising, which is conducive to China's expansion of wheat export Therefore, in July, the U.S Department of agriculture lowered the forecast value of China's wheat import from 3 million tons to 2 million tons, and in September to 1 million tons; in November, it increased the forecast value of China's wheat export from 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons On February 11, 2003, the U.S Department of agriculture, in the February forecast report of world agricultural product supply and demand, lowered the forecast quantity of China's Wheat Import in 2002 / 03 from 1 million tons to 700000 tons, and the export quantity of wheat remained unchanged at 1.5 million tons According to the current forecast of the US Department of agriculture, China will export 800000 tons of wheat net in 2002 / 03 The main reason for the overestimation of China's wheat imports is the underestimation of China's wheat stocks At the beginning of 2002 / 03, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that China would import 3 million tons of wheat According to the analysis, this prediction opinion comes to the conclusion that in addition to considering the factors of China's formal accession to the World Trade Organization and the implementation of tariff quota management for Wheat Import in 2002, the main reason is that the U.S Department of agriculture at that time greatly underestimated the quantity of wheat stocks in China and the actual supply capacity of domestic wheat In April 2002, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that China's wheat ending inventory in 2001 / 02 would be only 30.98 million tons; in May, it predicted that China's wheat ending inventory in 2002 / 03 would be reduced to 20.54 million tons, and in September, it further lowered this forecast to 19.53 million tons The fact that China's wheat stocks in v3q are greatly underestimated has led to a great illusion that China's wheat imports are small, not the result of insufficient demand, but the result of government regulation From 1995 to 1996, China imported a large number of wheat, which made some people think that there is a huge demand in China Based on this, it is predicted that after China's accession to the WTO, due to the change of import and export management system, the quantity of wheat imports will increase rapidly due to the cancellation of import restrictions The main reason why v3q underestimates the quantity of wheat stock in our country is that it is difficult to make use of the principle of balance analysis to make a more accurate judgment on the quantity of domestic consumption of wheat in our country through the output and the quantity of wheat stock, which generally overestimates the domestic consumption of wheat in our country Since 2000, China's wheat production has been reduced for three consecutive years Compared with the output of 113.88 million tons in 1999, the total output has been reduced by more than 58 million tons in three years In the case of a sharp decline in output, according to the overestimated domestic consumption, we can only draw a conclusion that China's wheat inventory is also declining significantly The problem that the U.S Department of agriculture underestimates China's wheat stocks has always existed In May 2001, the U.S Department of agriculture had to make a historical data adjustment because the amount of wheat stocks in China was underestimated In November 2002, for the same reason, the U.S Department of agriculture raised China's wheat stocks again Despite two adjustments, the current forecast of China's wheat inventory by the U.S Department of agriculture is still significantly lower than the actual inventory of China's wheat According to the estimation and forecast of the United States Department of agriculture in February 2003, the wheat stock in China was 76.59 million tons in June 2002 and 61.17 million tons in June 2003 In v3q 3 and 2002, the output of wheat and corn in the world's major wheat exporting countries decreased significantly, and the international market price rose, which not only reduced the import pressure of China's wheat, but also provided a rare opportunity for China's wheat (feed wheat and flour wheat) export Although v3q from the perspective of total wheat supply and demand, China's wheat imports will not be very large, but after major changes in the import and export management system, if there is price pressure, there is still the possibility of a significant increase in wheat imports In 2002, China's wheat import was lower than the original forecast, and wheat export increased predictably, and became a net wheat export country historically The important reason is that the international wheat and corn market changed greatly in 2002 In 2002, the drought of v3q was serious, and the wheat production of the world's main wheat exporting countries, the United States, Canada, Australia and Argentina, declined The decline of main production and domestic production has led to the increase of wheat and corn prices in the international market Under favorable international market conditions, although the number of wheat imports increased in 2002, it was lower than the original forecast At the same time, the export of milled wheat was realized for the first time According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China exported 688000 tons of wheat and imported 605000 tons of wheat in 2001, becoming a net wheat exporter for the first time The current forecast of China's Wheat Import and export in 2002 / 03 by the national grain and oil information center is lower than the current forecast of the U.S Department of agriculture In the monthly report of grain market in January this year, v3q national grain and Oil Information Center predicted that China's wheat import volume in 2002 / 03 is expected to be 500000 tons, the export volume is expected to be 1 million tons, and the net export volume is 500000 tons According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, from June to December 2002, China has imported 218000 tons of wheat and exported 406000 tons of wheat According to the current forecast of the State Grain and oil information center, China will import 282000 tons of wheat and export 594000 tons of wheat between January and may 2003 At present, the prediction of China's Wheat Import and export by the U.S Department of agriculture in v3q is higher than that of the national grain and oil information center The import is 200000 tons higher and the export is 500000 tons higher According to the forecast of the United States Department of agriculture, in the first half of 2003, China will export 1216000 tons of wheat and import 53.4 tons of wheat According to the analysis of the current market situation, the predicted value may be on the high side V3q (Note: from July to June of the next year for the US Department of agriculture's wheat market year, and from June to May of the next year for the national grain and Oil Information Center's wheat crop year) world wheat production will show a recovery growth in 2003, and the international wheat price will go down This will affect China's wheat export and the domestic wheat market will face import pressure again According to the latest forecast of the U.S Department of agriculture, in 2003, the wheat harvest area in the United States will reach 64.2 million acres, an increase of 18.3% over the previous year The wheat production is expected to increase to 59.74 million tons, an increase of 35.8% over the previous year In 2003 / 04, the ending stock of wheat will increase by 49.2% Collins, chief economist of the U.S Department of agriculture, analyzed that while the wheat planting area in the U.S rebounded, the wheat production in Canada and Australia recovered It is expected that the export volume will have a large recovery growth EU, Ukraine and Russia 2003 / 04 In 2003 / 04, the international wheat market will face great pressure because of the high level of wheat export, the huge stock of wheat in China and the lack of new demand in the world wheat market Recently, the Canadian wheat bureau predicted that the wheat production in Canada would return to the normal annual output of 25 million tons in 2003, an increase of 10 million tons over 2002 The International Grain Council forecasts that global wheat production will increase to 597 million tons in 2003 / 04, an increase of 6% over the previous year The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts that, with the increase of supply, the wheat farm price in 2003 / 04 is expected to be 117.6 US dollars / ton, down 14.7 US dollars / ton from the previous year At present, v3q national grain and oil information center forecasts that China's wheat export volume is expected to drop to 800000 tons in 2003 / 04, and the import volume is expected to increase to 1.5 million tons, once again becoming a net wheat importer It is predicted that exports will decline The main considerations are as follows: the main wheat exporting countries in the world will restore their original supply capacity and occupy the original market share after the output recovers; the corn output in the United States will increase by a large margin, the corn inventory will increase by a larger margin, and the price of corn will decrease, which will lead to the lower price of feed wheat; after the price of wheat in the international market falls The export of domestic wheat will face more fierce competition in the international market It is predicted that the import will increase to some extent The main considerations are: Although the output of domestic high-quality wheat is increasing and the substitution effect on imported high-quality wheat is increasing, the supply of domestic high-quality wheat still has the problem of low quality, and the production of domestic high-end special flour has a certain demand for imported wheat; at the same time, because the domestic wheat stock is still large, the import of wheat will eventually be affected Constraints from the market In 2003, the quantity of China's wheat export will also be affected by policy factors The domestic wheat stock is huge, and the number of old wheat is large, which can supply the international feed wheat market If sales are strong, wheat exports are likely to increase But we can be sure that the change of wheat export quantity will not affect the domestic market The U.S Department of agriculture predicts that in the next decade, China's wheat imports will gradually increase and exports will gradually decrease In February 2003, the U.S Department of Agriculture released its annual long-term rolling forecast report at the 79th Agricultural Outlook conference The report forecasts that China's wheat import will continue to increase from 1.5 million tons in 2003 / 04 to 9.1 million tons in 2012 / 13 between 2003 / 04 and 2012 / 13 The export volume of wheat will basically remain at a low level It is expected to be 1.3 million tons in 2003 / 04 and 1.2-1.1 million tons in the following years China will maintain the pattern of net wheat import Compared with the long-term rolling forecast released last year, the U.S Department of agriculture has made downward adjustments to China's wheat imports in the next decade It was predicted that from 2003 / 04 to 2005 / 06, China's wheat imports will reach 3.6 million tons, 4.6 million tons and 5.1 million tons respectively, and the current forecast is 1.5 million tons, 2 million tons and 3 million tons At present, China's total wheat output is declining, but the domestic wheat stock is still very large According to the analysis results of domestic wheat supply and demand balance, the total domestic wheat consumption in recent years shows a downward trend At present, the State Grain and Oil Information Center predicts that the supply and demand of domestic wheat will ultimately determine the import and export quantity of China's wheat in the future Only after the existing domestic wheat stocks are gradually digested, the import quantity of wheat will increase significantly Continue to expand the export of wheat and corn and improve the self-sufficiency of high-quality wheat The price of wheat and corn in the international market of v3q reached a high in the middle of September 2002, and the market has declined It is predicted that with the production situation of major grain exporting countries in 2003 becoming clear, the favorable international grain market environment for China is likely to be 200