An analysis of the influencing factors of domestic rice import

Introduction: in 2002, the number of rice import quotas reached 3.99 million tons In 2002, the number of rice import quotas reached 3.99 million tons Long grain indica rice and medium short grain japonica rice were 3.995 million tons, far higher than the actual rice imports over the years The impact of the substantial increase in the number of import quotas on imports is not optimistic However, whether the TRQ import of rice can be realized depends on two conditions: one is that the market has demand, the other is that the price has advantages In recent years, China's rice supply exceeds the demand, which is unsalable and overstocked Thailand's fragrant rice meets the demand of some high-quality residents in southeast coastal areas and large and medium-sized cities to improve their quality However, because its price is more than three times that of domestic northeast high-quality japonica rice, ordinary residents do not make regular rations These two factors determine the limited quantity of imported rice In the first half of 2002, only 5% of imported rice was imported More than ten thousand tons Since the end of 1995, the price of rice in the domestic market and the international market has fallen simultaneously We can compare the price of domestic rice with that of foreign rice According to the information of Zhengzhou grain wholesale market of China in June 2000, the average standard indica rice per ton in the main grain wholesale market of China is 1407 yuan (24.3% lower than the same period of last year), and the standard japonica rice per ton is 1753 yuan (20.8% lower than the same period of last year), while according to the information of faq2000, the FOB price of Thailand's second-class white rice (100% whole rice rate) is 208 US dollars (1732.6 yuan), 5 In June, the ship side delivery price of long grain rice No.2 (broken rice rate: 4%) was US $253 per ton (RMB 2107.5) Obviously, the price of rice from Thailand and the United States, together with freight, insurance, tax (tariff and value-added tax) and wastage, is not superior to the marginal price of rice from China If, according to the requirements of the Uruguay Round Agreement on agriculture, the exporting countries should gradually reduce the quantity and amount of grain subsidized for export, and do not distort the domestic agricultural support policies for rice trade, the quantity of rice TRQ promised in China's "WTO accession" negotiations ("2.66 million tons in the year of WTO accession, 5.32 million tons in the fifth year") is difficult to achieve, even if the share of TRQ allocated to non-state-owned enterprises is（ 765000 tons in the year of China's accession to the WTO and 1590000 tons in the fifth year) If the price difference is very small or even there is no price difference, the operator will not be able to make profits or gain little, and it is impossible to achieve all of them Obviously, rice will be the only product in China's grain that will benefit from trade liberalization after China's accession to the WTO China used to be the third rice exporter in the world However, in the past 20-30 years, it has retreated to the 6th-7th place in the international market In the 1980s, the average annual export was only 740000 tons In the 1990s, the average annual export was 1.1 million tons, accounting for 5% - 6% of the world's total rice export In 1998 In, China exported the most rice in its history, accounting for 19% of the world's total rice exports Before the mid-1990s, the world rice trade accounted for less than 4% of the rice output, much less than the world wheat trade accounted for about 20% of the output, and the coarse grain trade accounted for about 10-20% of the output In recent years, with the acceleration of trade liberalization, the world rice trade has increased significantly The export volume has increased from 13 million tons in 1991 to 28 million tons in 1997 (the highest record), and 25 million tons in 1998 It is predicted that with the development of world economic integration and trade liberalization, the rice trade volume in the international market will also increase significantly due to the nutritional needs of the United States, Europe and other countries (the Oriental high-quality rice contains protein with unique amino acid composition, which can reduce cholesterol and prevent hyperlipidemia), and the number of households eating rice will increase, thus the rice trade volume in the international market will also increase significantly, to 21 At the beginning of the 20th century, the rice trade volume will probably reach more than 30 million tons, which provides a very favorable space for China's rice production and rice export In TEV international market, there are different types of rice in three years due to different varieties and qualities Generally, the market of medium and low quality indica rice accounts for about 30-35% of the international market trade volume, the market of long grain high quality indica rice accounts for about 50-55%, and the market of high quality japonica rice accounts for about 12-15% From the perspective of development trend, the development potential of high-quality japonica rice market is greater than that of high-quality indica rice market, and Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will be the main importing countries and regions of high-quality japonica rice market China, the United States and Australia may be the three main export competitors in the market of high-quality japonica rice, and China is the main beneficiary of this market TEV entered the second half of China's rice market with good signs Japan's big trading companies such as Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Itochu began to change their rice import strategy from importing American rice to importing Chinese rice According to these companies, the quality of rice produced in China has been improved, the cost has been reduced, and the geographical quality is very obvious through the variety improvement and technology of the farmers in the high-quality japonica rice producing areas in China So Chinese rice is more competitive than American rice In 2000, Japan's import tariff quota was 758000 tons, accounting for 8% of China's domestic production, of which 60-70% was rice for staple food, mainly made in China However, it should be noted that Japan is actively developing rice cultivation overseas (such as in South America), and aims to form a rice distribution channel integrating China, the United States, Australia and three countries Therefore, we should make full use of the current good opportunities, strengthen cooperation with Japan, vigorously develop organic agriculture, and use high technology to achieve high quality and high yield of rice, so as to consolidate and expand the market share of Chinese rice in Japan, break through the trade barriers of developed countries, and open up more business opportunities for rice export TEV   TEV