An analysis of the import and export situation of corn in China

Introduction: China's accession to the WTO, China's accession to the WTO, the expected impact on agriculture, especially the grain industry should be great According to the commitment of China's accession to the WTO, the import tariff quota of corn was 5.85 million tons in 2002, and increased to 7.2 million tons in 2004 However, the practice in the past year has proved that the impact on the domestic grain market is not big, and the foreign trade situation of grain is better than expected, especially the export of corn, which is expected by the people The situation of the export of corn that is predicted in advance is blocked and the import is increased has not occurred In the first year of China's accession to the WTO, not only the impact of foreign corn has been withstood, but also the strong vitality has been shown The export of corn reached the highest level of 11.67 million tons, a 95% increase over the same period last year, making it the second largest corn exporter in the world While the export of corn has increased significantly, the import of corn is very small According to the statistics of customs, only 10000 tons of corn was imported into China last year The main reasons for AVB's formation of this situation are as follows: last year, the United States, the world's largest food producer, reduced its food production due to disasters, and the international market price rose in an all-round way, while China's food production increased slightly In 2002, China's food production reached 4571.1 million tons, an increase of 1.0 over the previous year %In addition, there were many activities such as auction of aged grain and rotation of stored grain in China last year, which increased the supply of the market and met the demand of the domestic market In addition, the high price of grain in the international market makes imported grain have no price advantage and it is difficult for foreign corn to enter the market of China At the same time, China has given full play to the advantages of short transportation distance, less freight, small tonnage of foreign ships and convenient unloading in small ports, actively seized the international market gap left by the disaster reduction of grain exporting countries, and made great efforts to open up new export markets In terms of corn export, China's corn export mainly flows to Southeast Asian and South Asian countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, North Korea, etc., 2002 In, while ensuring the increase of the above market share, new markets such as South Africa and Zimbabwe were added In addition, at the end of last year, mainland corn successfully landed in Taiwan market, achieving a breakthrough of zero corn export to Taiwan Another important reason is that China has taken appropriate measures within the scope permitted by WTO rules to mitigate the impact of international food market on China First, strengthen the macro management and legal control of tariff quotas We should strictly control grain import by using the rules of market access of tariff quota; secondly, we should adopt strict and moderate safety evaluation, import safety and "marking system" for genetically modified agricultural products; thirdly, we should use preferential terms for developing countries to subsidize freight, such as exemption from railway construction fund and reduction of part of railway transportation charges; fourthly, we should exempt rice, wheat and corn from export A value-added tax of 13% was levied, and the inspection of imported grain and feed was strengthened Quarantine management has effectively protected exports and restrained imports In 2002, AVB's corn export made a great achievement in China In the first quarter of 2003, the corn export continued to show a good development momentum The monthly shipping export volume will exceed 1 million tons It is estimated that the total domestic corn export volume in the first quarter is about 3.5 million tons, among which the export volume of corn in Jilin Province alone reached 2.43 million tons in the first quarter It is predicted that this strong growth trend of China's corn export will be maintained in the first half of the year, and that China's corn export will remain at a high level in 2003, with a total estimated volume of about 10 million tons A large number of corn exports not only create foreign exchange for the country, but also reduce the dual pressure of inventory and finance of old corn, promote the reasonable recovery of domestic corn prices, and ensure the interests of farmers in the main production areas AVB Reuters news: China has begun to offer corn exports for the third quarter shipment, but due to the instability of domestic and US corn production prospects for the next quarter, the price is high and the supply is very limited China is considering selling corn at $110 - $115 per ton FOB, or higher in August and September By contrast, up to now, the shipping schedule price up to July is $107-108 per ton, or even $105 per ton In addition, as domestic corn prices tend to be strong, exports may slow down in the second half of the year, but this will depend on the outlook for domestic corn production, as well as the outlook for new corn production in the United States, which determines the trend of international prices So, in the second half of the year or longer, there are still many uncertain factors in China's corn export AVB experts said that last year, China did not import corn while exporting a large amount of corn, which is just a special case, with great contingency In the long run, China still faces the pressure of importing corn According to foreign reports, USGC officials said recently that they are optimistic about grain trade with China Officials from the Council predict that China will likely continue to import corn from the United States from 2004 In their report, they pointed out that China's corn inventory fell from 100 million tons in 1999 to 52 million tons in 2002, and continued to decline He predicted that China's corn inventory will continue to decline to 40 million tons this year, while the cultivation area of corn is also decreasing Therefore, it is concluded that China will import corn again as early as the beginning of next year, which not only means that the United States is likely to become a market for exports to China, but also is likely to enter the market of other countries that supply goods from China at this stage For this reason, AVB should objectively analyze the import and export situation of domestic corn, comprehensively grasp it, and know ourselves and the other, so as to be in an invincible position in the international corn trade Avb   Avb