Ammonium sulfate fell back to find support

　　Since late May, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has ushered in a high-level decline
.
As of June 19, the domestic mainstream transaction price was 1,300-1,500 yuan (ton price, the same below), down 17% month-on-month, and the low-end price in Shanxi even fell below 1,300 yuan
.

　　"In the past month, the ammonium sulfate market has continued to decline, mainly due to multiple negative factors such as the current high operating rate of coke enterprises and sufficient supply, the decline of the load of compound fertilizer plants, and the start of the national reserve fertilizer.
At the same time, export demand has not been effectively followed up
.
Ammonium sulfate traders and manufacturers are waiting and seeing the atmosphere getting stronger, and further looking for a staged support level may be a recent trend
.
" said Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator
.

　　The operating rate of coke enterprises continues to be high

　　According to statistics from Henan Chemical Industry Network, as of June 19, the overall operating rate of domestic coking enterprises was 82.
6%, an increase of 2.
3% from the beginning of June
.

　　Shao Huiwen said that in addition to the high operating rate of coke enterprises, coal chemical enterprises and power plant flue gas desulfurization ammonium sulfate are also in a steady growth trend.
In addition, caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate has maintained a relatively high operating rate of about 63% for a month.
The supply of goods is sufficient, which is one of the main reasons for the continuous decline in the bidding prices of coke enterprises in various places
.
The first price reduction of coking grade ammonium sulfate drove the market down.
With the low price reference of coking ammonium sulfate, the related grade ammonium sulfate manufacturers also released their stocks and sold them at a profit
.
At the same time, traders also took profits in a timely manner, which led to a continuous decline in the market
.

　　The load of compound fertilizer plant is declining

　　According to Zhu Junmin, the person in charge of a compound fertilizer company in Henan: "Affected by the epidemic, transportation and logistics in various places have been restricted, and farmers' income has also been greatly affected
.
From the end of the year to the present, under the background of rising compound fertilizer prices, compound fertilizer Consumption has shrunk significantly
.
Compared with previous years, the demand of our own consumer customers has dropped by more than 1/3 this year.
This phenomenon should not be an exception in China
.
In addition, last year, compound fertilizer dealers hoarded a lot of goods and increased their profits.
This year, compound fertilizer dealers reserve ahead of schedule, and the price is significantly higher than last year, but the export is obviously restricted and has not met expectations, resulting in increased domestic sales, and the operating rate of production enterprises continues to decline at a low level
.
"

　　At present, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer plants has dropped from 57% in March this year to the current 33%, and the demand for ammonium sulfate has been shrinking continuously
.
In addition, the urea plant has steadily increased from 60% after the year to about 70% at present, and the price has also begun to fall from a high level, and the support for the high price of ammonium sulfate has weakened
.

　　Reserve fertilizer begins to be put on the market

　　On June 16, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference in June and stated that in order to ensure the fertilizer needs for agricultural production in this year's "three summers" (summer harvest, summer seed, and summer management), the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, together with relevant parties, arranged 300 More than 10,000 tons of summer management fertilizer are temporarily reserved
.
Since June, the reserve fertilizers have been put into the market as required
.
In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will pay close attention to the situation of the fertilizer market, flexibly apply various policies and measures, and continue to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of fertilizers
.

　　According to the person in charge of chemical fertilizer enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong and other places, the release of national reserve fertilizers has restrained the price of high-level fertilizers from rising again, and at the same time has begun to boycott high-priced raw materials.
"There is still the possibility of amplification, which is a test for ammonium sulfate, a product that has risen too much since last year
.

　　From the perspective of the market outlook, industry analysts believe that, as the export market of ammonium sulfate, which is an important consumption direction of ammonium sulfate, due to uncertain factors such as the international situation and the epidemic, exports have not achieved the expected growth, and the price of ammonium sulfate has also been on a downward trend since April.
, have a negative impact on the domestic market
.
However, the current export price of ammonium sulfate is higher than the domestic market, and there is still support in the short term
.
On this basis, it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market is unlikely to decline sharply in the short term, and the probability of narrowing and continuing to seek support is high
.