Aluminum prices temporarily treat the pattern of external strength and internal weakness with a wait-and-see idea

On the macro front, the US CPI increased by 8.
5% year-on-year in March, and crude oil prices rebounded
sharply.
Overseas, the Fed's situation in Russia and Ukraine is repeated, and it is expected that the energy shortage problem will be difficult to solve
in the short term.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in March 2022, China exported 594,300 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and from January to March, the cumulative export was 1.
6283 million tons, an increase of 26.
7%
year-on-year.

In terms of domestic supply, driven by high profits and abundant hydropower resources, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity continues to rise, and Yunnan, Shanxi, Guangxi, Qinghai and other places have increased production capacity release, which puts certain pressure
on aluminum prices.

In terms of demand, the number of infected cases in Shanghai and other places is still rising, and the current epidemic is still operating at a high level and the scope has expanded, causing great interference to the aluminum industry chain, resulting in a phased recovery of aluminum ingot social inventory
.

In terms of inventory, on April 11, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
061 million tons, 05,000 tons
more than last Thursday.
LME aluminum inventories rose 1,500 tonnes from the previous session to 612,000 tonnes
on April 12.

In terms of price, in the short term, the pattern of strong outside the aluminum market and weak inside the market continues, it is recommended to treat it with a wait-and-see approach, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development inflection point of the epidemic and the enthusiasm of spot purchases after the correction of aluminum prices
.