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Last week, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded, gained good support at the Wanqi position, and tried to rebound to rush resistance around 18200-18300
.
On the supply side, the output of electrolytic aluminum in June was 3.
3896 million tons, +5% year-on-year, a slight decline
from the previous month.
Electrolytic aluminum continues to operate
at high capacity.
On the demand side, the Fed has started the cycle of interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction, and the trend of overseas economic highs has been established, dragging down the overseas demand for electrolytic aluminum, but due to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the rise in energy prices has led to an amplification
of the supply gap.
Domestic demand still needs further efforts
from the steady growth policy.
With the expectation of overseas shortfall, the expectation of increasing the export of China's aluminum products in the later period has risen, and the current consumption is gradually recovering, and the demand for aluminum rods, plates, strips and foils has improved
.
In 2022, the investment in the power grid will reach 500 billion yuan, a record high, and this information will have a supporting effect on copper prices; In addition, the data of new energy vehicles in July is still bright, with passenger car sales in July being 1.
77 million units, and new energy vehicles are expected to be 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 102.
5%.
In terms of inventory, aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum restart the destocking rhythm
.
As of July 28, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 670,000 tons, down 03,000 tons
from the previous week.
Overall, the macro environment has temporarily warmed up, and the sentiment of bulls is high, but the sustainability may be lacking
.
The installed capacity of power generation in the country is sufficient, the water supply in major river basins is better than expected, the amount of power generated by key hydropower plants has increased sharply year-on-year, and the supply side of electrolytic aluminum has once again started the process of resuming production, and the output has remained stable; Demand in various industries picked up month-on-month, but the growth rate was slow and demand was weak
.
Short-term aluminum prices have received certain macro sentiment repair and valuation dimension support, continue to look upwards rebound space needs to effectively break the 18200-18300 position (that is, 20-day moving average resistance).
However, driven by the trend of the upward rebound, it is still necessary to see a substantial improvement
in supply and demand in the second half of the year.
