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Yesterday's aluminum prices were strong, mainly due to the epidemic in Guangxi caused some electrolysis plants and alumina plants to reduce production and overseas Hydro electrolytic aluminum plants to reduce production again
.
Recently, Guangxi has put considerable pressure on the production and transportation of local electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the built production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise area of Guangxi has reached 2.
315 million tons, accounting for 82.
2% of Guangxi's total production capacity, and it is necessary to pay attention to the specific impact of
the epidemic on production.
In terms of news, the overseas European energy crisis is still fermenting, due to the greater uncertainty in overseas natural gas supply before the spring of March, production cuts may expand again, and it is necessary to pay attention to overseas related news
.
In terms of domestic fundamentals, after the dual-control atmosphere was corrected, various places began to resume production one after another, mainly in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places
.
Post-holiday consumption is expected to be optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and the impact of environmental protection control in the
north.
In terms of the market, the news of the epidemic in Guangxi caused aluminum plants and alumina plants to reduce production continued to ferment in the market, Shanghai aluminum rose rapidly in early trading, standing at a high of 22,650 yuan / ton, a new high in nearly four months, the South China market is worried about the supply of aluminum behind, the cargo holders reported high premium, the downstream has not resumed work in a large area, some downstream just need to replenish storage, the actual transaction has improved
slightly.
In terms of inventory, the current domestic social library accumulation is not as large as in previous years, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent inventory changes
.
On February 7, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory was 866,000 tons, compared with 140,000 tons
before the holiday.
LME aluminium inventories fell 550 tonnes from the previous session to 768,000 tonnes
on Feb.
8.
At present, the threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to the beginning of spring, and with the resumption of construction in various places after the holiday, driven by real estate stock construction, completion and infrastructure projects, consumption can be expected to pick up, it is expected that aluminum prices still have upward potential after the year, but need to be wary of the fluctuation of market expectations for interest rate hikes in the late first quarter
.
